Нефть марки Brent: Технические уровни «геополитического равновесия» (Динамика движения и ключевые уровни)

Движение цен на нефть марки Brent развивается по описанному нами ранее коррекционному сценарию. Ап-движение и выход из диапазона, который в прошлом году был назван в шутку «Дорога жизни», сопровождался различного рода вербальными потоками, в виде дежурного «замедления экономического роста в Китае» или удобной статистики в виде «роста запасов нефти в США», которые обновили максимум за 21 год. Что касается «фундаментальной» составляющей Цены нефти марки Brent, то мы не меняем своего мнения высказанного ранее:
 
 
«По нашему мнению, данный диапазон является психологически удобным уровнем геополитического равновесия во времена экстремальных движений связанных с нездоровыми экономическими процессами.
Возвращение цены обратно в данный диапазон будет означать, что мир пока не готов к более динамичному повышению цен на нефть, и политические риски выше, чем экономические.»

 
 
Поскольку главным инсайдом к любому активу является его Цена, которая включает в себя все факторы, даже те которые нам априори неизвестны, то нам не обойтись без рассмотрения ключевых технических уровней, динамики движения и перспектив стоимости «геополитического равновесия» с точки зрения технического анализа.
 
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Комментарии (9)

свернуть / развернуть
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Кривая контрактов WTI полностью «ушла» в бэквордацию (последний раз это было во время ливийских событий 2011)
 

Спред Brent/WTI сузился до минимальных отметок 2011 
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Главное ливийским повстанцам не показывать такие красивые картиночки. Иначе будут каждый твиттерный революционный вбросс сверять со спредом Brent/WTI =)
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«Электроимпульсная терапия спреда»:
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=)
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=))
«Ливийский фактор»:
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OPEC May Cut Oil Production in December


OPEC could be forced to reduce its oil production by half a million barrels a day when it meets in December, the first cut in five years, as the latest forecasts show the U.S. shale boom will dent demand for its crude next year, Gulf delegates within the group said. Oil markets are brimming with new barrels coming out of U.S. shale reservoirs, and separate forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency last week showed demand for OPEC oil next year will fall well below its current production of around 30 million barrels a day. «Based on what the forecast says, we would have to cut,» said one delegate from a Persian Gulf country that has tended to oppose production cuts in the recent past. A cut of about 500,000 barrels a day was likely to be debated at the December meeting, said another OPEC delegate from the Gulf region. In recent meetings, Gulf countries, including OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, have supported maintaining the group's collective 30 million barrel-a-day production ceiling. They have opposed production cuts because they fear the resulting higher prices could hurt the oil demand of their Western customers, whose economies are still recovering from the 2008 economic crisis. OPEC hasn't made a formal production cut since slashing 4.2 million barrels a day from its quotas when oil demand slumped and prices crashed during the financial crisis in late 2008. The views of OPEC's Gulf members have shifted after the first detailed oil market forecasts for the year ahead showed demand for its crude falling substantially below current production. On Wednesday, OPEC forecast that demand for its crude in 2014 will be below its current 30 million barrel-a-day ceiling--by about 800,000 barrels a day for the first half of the year--and about 400,000 barrels a day lower across the whole year. On Thursday, the IEA estimated the need for OPEC crude would be just 28.85 million barrels a day in the first half of 2014, and about 29.4 million barrels a day for the whole year. Some of this demand could also be satisfied by drawing oil out of inventories, the IEA said. The drop in demand for OPEC crude will come as oil supply from countries outside the group, estimated to grow by between 1.1 million barrels a day and 1.3 million barrels a day in 2014, rises faster than global demand. In a note Monday, London-based oil broker PVM Oil Associates Ltd. said recent forecasts clearly show the market is over supplied. Another non-Gulf OPEC delegate said any decision to reduce the group's ceiling would depend on where global oil inventories stand in December. Supply disruption risks--such as the political crisis in Egypt or recent Canadian floods--may also deter OPEC from cutting its ceiling, the delegate said. In its report last week, the IEA warned that an expected increase of U.S. output next year of about 500,000 barrels a day could be offset by disruptions caused by Middle-Eastern political unrest or unplanned outages in the North Sea. OPEC could also rule against a reduction if prices remained above $100 a barrel, said the first Gulf delegate. International crude benchmark Brent moved down slightly Monday morning to $108.65 a barrel.
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СПРОС НА НЕФТЬ В КИТАЕ ВЫРОС ДО МАКСИМУМА С 11 ГОДА
The following are excerpts from Platt's report Tuesday on China's oil demand in June:

China's apparent oil demand in June rose by 11.7% to an average 9.99 million barrels per day (b/d) or 40.89 million metric tons (mt), a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data showed. Apparent oil demand in June was the highest since February 2011.


This was a rebound from relatively more sluggish growth in the first half of 2013 and demonstrates significant growth in relation to the comparatively low level in June last year. In May this year apparent oil demand edged up just 1.9% year over year to an average 9.53 million b/d while in April, apparent demand rose 2.1% to an average 9.66 million b/d. Refinery runs, or capacity utilization, surged 10.8% in June versus a year earlier to 9.68 million b/d. Refinery throughput was also 4.8% higher than in the previous month, according to data released July 15 by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).… For the first half of 2013, China's apparent oil demand has grown by 3.9% compared with the same period of 2012 to an average 9.87 million b/d. This was more robust than the 0.7% expansion seen over the same period last year. «The oil data in June was surprisingly robust and was quite a contrast to the seemingly bearish macroeconomic data, such as its sluggish second quarter GDP growth and weakened industrial production,» said Song Yen Ling, Platts senior writer for China. «It is difficult to say if this level of growth will be sustained, but China's oil demand historically picks up at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, so it's possible that there might be an uptick in growth later in the year.» Apparent demand for gasoil, which makes up the largest component of overall oil product demand, edged up by 2.4% year on year in June to 13.84 million mt, following two prior months of contraction. Domestic output of gasoil rose 3.4% year on year to 13.96 million mt, while exports totaled 120,000 mt, the lowest level in a year. Gasoline apparent demand continued to show strong growth, rising by 13.7% year on year to 7.62 million mt in June. It was buoyed by a 15.3% increase in domestic production to 8.04 million mt, while exports rose 55.6% year on year to 420,000 mt. Jet/kerosene apparent demand rose 34.6% compared with a year earlier to 1.84 million mt, similarly due to an increase in output of 21.4% to 2 million mt. China is typically a slight net exporter of jet/kerosene and these volumes in June fell by 42.9% year on year to 160,000 mt.


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судя от отчетам нефтяного крупняка эта сланцевая революция не такая уж полезная и даже весьма затратная для самих производителей сланцев

 



ОТЧЕТЫ КРУПНЫХ НЕФТЯНЫХ КОМПАНИЙ ПОКАЗАЛИ УБЫТКИ ИЗ-ЗА БИЗНЕСА СВЯЗАННОГО СО СЛАНЦАМИ
Some of the world's biggest energy companies are struggling to make money from massive bets on the shale boom in North America, where deposits of oil and gas are proving abundant but not always profitable. U.S. oil production has soared to levels not seen in decades, and profits at some smaller energy companies have surged. But big international oil companies, which were late to exploit shale rocks, haven't capitalized on the boom in the same way. Exxon and Shell have spent billions to acquire companies and drilling rights to shale discovered by others at a lower cost. Their sheer size—Exxon produces nearly as many barrels of crude a day as the entire state of Texas—also makes it harder for them to replace the reserves they deplete and increase their output. Exxon and Chevron are sticking to aggressive goals to increase their slumping production over the next four years, by about 14% and 26%, respectively, from 2012 levels. But Shell said it would stop setting targets for how much oil and gas it hopes to pump and just focus on profits. «If we are solely focused on a volume-related target, we may make less profitable long-term investments,» Simon Henry, Shell's chief financial officer, said in an interview. In Big Oil's hunt to add to its reserves, North America emerged as a bright spot in recent years. Smaller companies like EOG Resources Inc. and Chesapeake Energy Corp. capitalized on drilling sideways through shale, breaking it up with a high-pressure stream of water, sand and chemicals, allowing oil and gas to flow. The Energy Information Administration said Thursday that exploration and production companies operating in the U.S. raised their oil reserves by nearly 3.8 billion barrels in 2011, the largest single-year increase since the government starting publishing the data in 1977. The EIA now estimates the U.S. has about 29 billion barrels of oil that companies can recover at a profit, the most since 1985. Natural-gas reserves also expanded to 348.8 trillion cubic feet, the EIA said, a 9.8% annual jump that ranks as the second-largest increase on record. The boost in domestic oil production is providing a «major economic benefit» by reducing the amount of crude the U.S. has to import, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. That hasn't necessarily translated into corporate profits, however. Shell has tried for months to boost the profitability of its U.S. shale assets. Since U.S. gas prices remain low, Shell said early this year that it would try to shift its North American production toward more profitable oil. The strategy hasn't panned out. Finding shale oil turned out to be tougher than finding gas, the company said. Its overall exploration and production operations in the Americas sustained a loss in the second quarter, partly because of higher costs. And, with current oil and gas prices, the business will likely continue losing money at least through the end of this year, Shell said. Exxon, which spent $25 billion in 2010 to buy shale-gas specialist XTO Energy Inc., said an increase in natural-gas prices in the U.S. last quarter helped increase its domestic profits by 62% to just over $1 billion. But its XTO investment diluted its profits and isn't making up for the company's problems increasing oil-and-gas production around the globe; its overall production fell 1.9%, the eighth quarter in a row of year-on-year declines. Profits from producing energy dropped 25% in the quarter to $6.3 billion. But the steep drop in Exxon's overall profit for the second quarter was due in part to a tough comparison; asset sales and tax breaks helped drive earnings to a record in 2012.

 
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Бриты типа «инсайда» дают в своей прессе о том, что саудиты сделали России крутое гешефтное предложение в обмен на сдачу Башера нашего Асада

Saudi Arabia has secretly offered Russia a sweeping deal to control the global oil market and safeguard Russia’s gas contracts, if the Kremlin backs away from the Assad regime in Syria.

 
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