G20: Очередная партия в «Политический покер»

Саммит G20, который пройдет 18-19 июня, является продолжением затянувшейся «антикризисной» саги. Официальные темы саммита остались прежними. И как бы они не звучали, суть их – модернизация старой финансовой архитектуры мира. «Политическая двадцатка», как правило, собирается для того, чтобы обозначить свои приоритеты. «Цена приоритетов» рассчитывается на саммитах G20 глав Центробанков. Именно они «оплачивают» политические «слова», которыми щедро разбрасываются политики. «Слова» как правило, не отражают реальности. Это, в лучшем случае — «надежды» или «фантазии», а в худшем – откровенная ложь. Но, раз «сел за игровой стол» — будь добр – соответствуй. Лучше чем Шарль де Голь о политиках не сказать: «Политик до такой степени не принимает на веру свои слова, что всегда удивляется, когда другие понимают его буквально».


Да, действительно, публика, томясь в ожиданиях, в массе своей воспринимает «слова» буквально. И, например, слова Филипе Кальдерона, о том, что «двадцатка» может пополнить «спасательный фонд» МВФ, приправленные фразой: «Реформа МВФ», означают — самый обычный «распил» квот, жаждущих принять участие в «спасении».
 
Другой темой на предстоящем саммите будет «Европейский кризис». И тут, лучше, чем Уинстон Черчилль описать ситуацию невозможно: «Политик должен уметь предсказать, что произойдет завтра, через неделю, через месяц и через год. А потом объяснить, почему этого не произошло».


Уже который год мы наблюдаем «предсказания» европейских политиков на бесконечных саммитах, встречах, выборах, суть которых —  громкие пафосные речи с озвучиванием иллюзорных реформ и действий. Так что и на этот раз, европейская политэлита, на встрече глав G20, в очередной раз объяснит – «почему это не произошло». К тому же более прагматичные монетарные представители, которые не хотят чтобы «Лос-Кабос» не превратился в «Лос- Лохос»,  вполне обосновано сомневаются:

Canada's Flaherty doubts euro deal reached at G20
TORONTO, June 16 (Reuters) — Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Saturday that he does not expect the Europeans to produce a broad plan to resolve the euro zone debt crisis at the G20 summit next week. «I hope, particularly in the bilateral sidebar meetings, we can make some progress with our European allies, with the Germans and the others,» he said during an interview on CBC Radio. «I've had conversations with some of them in the past few days, and I hope we can get them to the right place.» Flaherty said he thought it was more likely the Europeans would reach an agreement at a meeting of the European Council at the end of this month. The finance minister said the Conservative government's contingency plan for dealing with the fallout from an intensifying European crisis would include some of the measures taken during the 2007-09 financial crisis to maintain liquidity within the Canadian system. «We have an agreement with the Bank of Canada on how to move forward with some of these actions if we need to,» he said. Flaherty said Ottawa would implement such a contingency plan if financial markets turned disorderly, creating a fresh credit crunch that threatened lending, investment and ultimately job creation.

Тем не менее, основной интерес будут представлять дальнейшие действия каждой из стран G20. Потому что, не смотря на публичное вербальное «единство», процент недоверия, выраженный в мерах протекционизма, увеличивается, после каждого нового саммита G20:
 

 
Более подробно с мерами протекционизма можно ознакомиться в последнем исследовании независимой группы экспертов GTA:
SECTION 1: Analyses of Contemporary Protectionism
SECTION 2: Country-by-Country Reports
 
Данная тема создана в основном «на будущее», сюда будут сбрасываться  «для истории» и дальнейшего «медицинского освидетельствования» заявление представителей глав «Большой двадцатки».

Комментарии (37)

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GREECE'S CONSERVATIVE NEW DEMOCRACY GETTING 29.5 PCT OF VOTE, LEFTIST SYRIZA AT 27.1 PCT- OFFICIAL INTERIOR MINISTRY PROJECTION

GREECE'S CONSERVATIVE NEW DEMOCRACY SEEN GETTING 128 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, SYRIZA 72 SEATS, SOCIALIST PASOK 33 SEATS — OFFICIAL INTERIOR MINISTRY PROJECTION
RTR, 06/17 02:21PM

Source: Thomson News
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Патриция, а новые демократы с пасок могут создать коалицию? Если так пойдет дальше, сириза может оказаться за бортом
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SENIOR GREEK SYRIZA OFFICIAL SAYS HIS PARTY WILL NOT TAKE PART IN ANY PRO-BAILOUT COALITION GOVERNMENT
RTR, 06/17 02:31PM

Source: Thomson News
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Это мы в следующей серии узнаем)))
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GREEK CONSERVATIVE LEADER SAMARAS TELLS REUTERS HE WILL FORM A GOVERNMENT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

GREEK CONSERVATIVE LEADER SAMARAS SAYS HE IS RELIEVED FOR GREECE AND EUROPE
RTR, 06/17 02:52PM

Source: Thomson News
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EURO <EUR=> TRADES AROUND $1.2720 AFTER GREEK POLL VS $1.2654 IN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY — RTRS DATA

DOLLAR <JPY=> TRADES AROUND 78.90 YEN FROM 78.65 YEN IN LATE NEW YORK TRADE FRIDAY

NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS TRADE HIGHER VS U.S. DOLLAR AFTER GREEK POLL
RTR, 06/17 03:04PM

Source: Thomson News
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GREEK SOCIALIST PASOK PARTY LEADER VENIZELOS SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT TOMORROW

VENIZELOS CALLS FOR GOVERNMENT OF MAIN GREEK PARTIES, INCLUDING SYRIZA

VENIZELOS SAYS WE ARE FULLY AWARE OF OUR CRITICAL ROLE
RTR, 06/17 03:04PM

Source: Thomson News


Последнюю фразу он явно фрау адресовал… =)
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Патриция, Спасибо за взгляд наAUDUSD
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GREEK RADICAL LEFTIST LEADER TSIPRAS SAYS HIS PARTY DID NOT MANAGE TO WIN

TSIPRAS SAYS AUSTERITY, PRIVATISATION CAN NOT GO ON BECAUSE THEY LACK LEGITIMACY

TSIPRAS SAYS AS OF MONDAY WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FIGHT AGAINST BAILOUT
RTR, 06/17 03:32PM

Source: Thomson News

Покой нам только снится… =)
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скорее всего греки сформируют правительство. Теперь будем смотреть новый эпизод под названием Италия?
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GREEK SOCIALISTS WILL BACK COALITION GOVERNMENT BUT WILL DECIDE HOW ON MONDAY- PARTY SOURCES

GREEK SOCIALISTS MAY JUST GIVE VOTE OF CONFIDENCE RATHER THAN HAVE MINISTERS IN NEW CABINET- PARTY SOURCES
RTR, 06/17 04:13PM

Source: Thomson News
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EU'S BARROSO AND VAN ROMPUY SAY AGREED EU/IMF BAILOUT FOR GREECE IS THE BASIS ON WHICH TO BUILD GREEK GROWTH AND JOBS
RTR, 06/17 04:31PM

Source: Thomson News


откровенная ложь… совсем совесть потеряли… клоуны…
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WHITE HOUSE SAYS HOPES GREEK ELECTION RESULT WILL LEAD QUICKLY TO FORMATION OF NEW GOVT THAT MAKES «TIMELY PROGRESS» ON ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

WHITE HOUSE SAYS INTERESTS OF ALL ARE FOR GREECE TO REMAIN IN EURO ZONE WHILE RESPECTING COMMITMENT TO REFORM

WHITE HOUSE SAYS U.S. WILL ENGAGE WITH GREECE IN SPIRIT OF PARTNERSHIP
RTR, 06/17 04:36PM

Source: Thomson News

)))))))))))))))))
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GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHAEUBLE SAYS IF NEW DEMOCRACY WINS GREEK ELECTION, GERMAN GOVT SEES THAT AS DECISION TO FORGE AHEAD WITH GREEK REFORMS

GERMAN FINMIN SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREECE'S PATH WILL BE NEITHER SHORT NOR EASY BUT IS NECESSARY, WILL GIVE GREEK PEOPLE PROSPECT FOR BETTER FUTURE
RTR, 06/17 04:32PM

Source: Thomson News
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Да… без них никак… такой феерверк на новостной ленте… парни пропустить не могли… )))))


16:41ET Egan-Jones affirms Greece rating at 'D' [DFX]
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HIGHLIGHTS-G20 summit meeting in Mexico
RTR, 06/17 04:58PM

    LOS CABOS, Mexico (June 17) — The following are highlights
of comments by leaders ahead of the Group of 20 summit meeting
in the Mexican beach resort of Los Cabos.
 
    WORLD BANK PRESIDENT ROBERT ZOELLICK
    «Everybody knows that this meeting is coming at an
absolutely critical time. We're waiting for Europe to tell us
what it is going to do. Markets can manage and hedge risks that
they are generally aware of. The danger we're creating is that
the pattern of policymaking is increasing uncertainty.»
        
    ANGEL GURRIA,SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE ORGANISATION FOR
ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT:

    «Europeans have to display the awesome firepower that they
have at their disposal.»
    «The fire is in Europe right now and it is affecting the
system as a whole. It is no longer just a European issue… One
of the problems we've had in Europe so far is that the
instruments are there but the countries have not decided for
different reasons to use them to the fullest.»
    Gurria said Greece's new government is likely to seek to
renegotiate the terms of its IMF/EU bailout package. «It is a
scenario I see likely and if that is the condition present for
Greece to stay and then move on, I would say it is probably
something that should be attempted.»
    
    CANADIAN FINANCE MINISTER JIM FLAHERTY:
    «The situation is not that we're dealing with impoverished
countries here… We're dealing with some of the wealthiest
countries in the world, which is quite different than the
situation that the IMF normally deals with,» Flaherty told
Global Television.
    «The reality is that we have non-European G20 countries that
have a lot of hesitation in dedicating resources to the wealthy
European countries.»
    

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17:09ET Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao says China supports a unified Euro-zone. [DFX] 
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GREEK CONSERVATIVE LEADER SAMARAS TO MEET RADICAL LEFT LEADER TSIPRAS AT 1100 GMT- SOURCE
RTR, 06/18 05:09AM

Source: Thomson News
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GREEK NEW DEMOCRACY LEADER SAMARAS TO MEET PASOK LEADER VENIZELOS AT 1500 GMT — PARTY SOURCE
RTR, 06/18 05:27AM

Source: Thomson News
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GREEK CONSERVATIVE LEADER SAMARAS SAYS WILL TRY TO FORM A LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT

GREEK CONSERVATIVE LEADER SAMARAS SAYS WILL TRY TO CHANGE THE BAILOUT AGREEMENT TO RELIEVE PEOPLE FROM HARDSHIP
RTR, 06/18 05:32AM

Source: Thomson News


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GERMAN GOVT SPOKESMAN SAYS NOW IS NOT TIME FOR GIVING DISCOUNTS TO GREECE

GERMAN GOVT SPOKESMAN SAYS TIME PLAN FOR GREECE STAYS AS AGREED
RTR, 06/18 05:37AM

Source: Thomson News
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Греки пытаются выторговать время… а гансы их жучат на каждом слове… ещё чуть чуть и они переругаются в прямом эфире)))))
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      British Prime Minister David Cameron will urge central banks on Monday to act to protect the global economy from the ravages of the euro zone debt crisis, and demand that the currency bloc's biggest economic players work harder to resolve its problems.
   Cameron, due to speak to world business leaders at the G20 summit of developed and emerging economies in Mexico, will warn the euro zone that it faces «perpetual stagnation» unless it fixes its problems.    
   «We cannot afford for central banks around the world to stand on the sidelines if we are to deliver the growth we need,» Cameron will say, according to extracts from his speech.
   «It is becoming increasingly clear in the euro zone that the core, including the ECB (European Central Bank), must do more to support demand and share the burden of adjustment,» he will say, in a strong hint to Germany — the bloc's largest economy and strict paymaster — and the euro zone's monetary policymakers.   
  
   Britain, the largest European economy outside the euro, has repeatedly blamed its own economic woes on the euro zone crisis. Some European leaders say such lecturing only makes matters worse.
   Cameron, attending the G20 summit with his finance minister George Osborne and a large business delegation, will put further pressure on Europe at the start of a summit that is likely to be dominated by the continent's banking and sovereign debt crisis.
   «The alternatives to action that creates a more coherent euro zone are either a perpetual stagnation from a euro zone crisis that is never resolved — or a break up… that would have financial consequences that would badly damage the world economy,» he will say.
   Just last week, Britain's central bank and government announced a plan to flood the country's financial system with billions of pounds to try to get a recession-hit economy moving.
 
   Critics at home argue Cameron's seven-year austerity plan aimed at eliminating a record budget deficit is the real cause of Britain's shrinking economy, rather than the euro zone.
   «This government made a reckless decision two years ago — raising taxes and cutting spending too far and too fast — which has left Britain in a much weaker position as the global hurricane builds around us,» said Ed Balls, finance spokesman for the Labour opposition, writing in London's Evening Standard.
   After a narrow election victory for Greece's pro-bailout parties, Germany signalled on Monday it might grant Athens more time to meet its austerity targets to avert what could be a catastrophic euro exit. 
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волшебное слово — завтра!

GREEK SOCIALIST LEADER VENIZELOS SAYS COALITION MUST BE FORMED BY TOMORROW
RTR, 06/18 11:48AM

Source: Thomson News
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G20 SPANISH DRAFT COMMUNIQUE
G20 SPANISH DRAFT COMMUNIQUE -EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND FINANCIAL IMBALANCES CONTINUE TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL GROWTH AND CONFIDENCE G20 DRAFT COMMUNIQUE IN SPANISH -G20 COMMITTED TO REDUCING IMBALANCES AND STRENGTHENING THE BUDGET POSITIONS OF COUNTRIES IN DEFICIT WITH SOUND AND SUSTAINABLE POLICIES G20 DRAFT COMMUNIQUE IN SPANISH -G20 COMMITTED TO PROGRESS TOWARD MORE CURRENCY FLEXIBILITY IN COUNTRIES WITH BIG CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES G20 DRAFT -AGREE THAT MULTILATERALISM IS IMPORTANT IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE, IS OUR BEST TOOL TO RESOLVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES G20 DRAFT -WORLD ECONOMY CLEARLY REMAINS VULNERABLE G20 DRAFT SAYS G20 COMMITTED TO TAKE ALL POLICY MEASURES NEEDED TO STRENGTHEN DEMAND, HELP GLOBAL GROWTH AND RESTORE CONFIDENCE G20 DRAFT -G20 SAYS COMMITTED TO FACE UP TO SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM RISKS, MAXIMIZE JOB CREATION RTR, 06/18 11:42AM Source: Thomson News

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Футбол смотрю..

Надо: чтобы Германия слила Греции
Далее: Греки счасливы, типа «оле-оле» (Ну а что, Россия ради трубы через Словакию, тоже слила ЧМ)
Далее: Остаются греки и евро-мафия итальянцы, французы, гансы
Далее: договорной матч между италией и францией (не важно кто выиграет)
Финал: Греция с италией или францией — сливают грекам
Греки чемпионы, типа «оле-оле», много денег на организацию следующего евро чемпионата, элины получают работу (инфраструктура и прочее) + моральный гешефт с барского плеча… Ну и итог великая рыночная радость… Европейская мумия вдруг оживает… «экономика восстанавливается» бла-бла-бла… " евроинтеграция" бла-блабла… (под шумок ЕвроФРС мутят)


П.С. Греки — торгуйтесь! У вас все карты на руках ))))
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МЕРКЕЛЬ НА МЫЛО!!!!!!!!!!
ЭЛИНЫ ВПЕРЁД!
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П.С. Клозе на Корженевского чем то похож)) Гол — прощен))
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саммит 2009 — саммит 2012… найдите отличия.  (они кстати есть)  


 
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Это из серии «Капитан Очевидность» или «Никто не видит суслика но он есть»?

П.С. Вторая картинка маленькая..  вот побольше
G20    G20
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ну так найди отличия))) тут даже политические есть (не в  смысле новых (старых) а в другом смысле…
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Germany:No EFSF/ESM Bond Purchase W/Out Conditionality

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government on Wednesday reaffirmed that
the European bailout funds EFSF and ESM won’t be able to buy bonds of
EMU member states on the secondary markets without these countries
applying formally for such aid and accepting the conditions tied to it.

“Such secondary market purchases are foreseen as one of several
instruments in the EFSF as well as in the future ESM,” government
spokesman Georg Streiter said at a regular press conference here. “They
are naturally tied to conditions and there won’t ever be any purchases
without conditions.”

Commenting on Greece, Streiter said Germany expected that the new
government there will abide by the fiscal consolidation and reform
program agreed with the EU, the ECB and the IMF.

Yet, finance ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe said at the same
press conference that regarding the timetable of the consolidation and
reform program “small adaptations can be made, as has been already the
case before.”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told German weekly Die
Zeit in an interview to be published Thursday that “we did not ask too
much of Greece and we won’t ask too much of Greece.”

ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, a German national, said
Monday it was too early to tell if Greece should be allowed more time to
meet its goals. One must first see how the new government judges the
state of the economy and the progress on reforms, he explained. Asmussen
also warned that giving Greece more time meant automatically that “there
will be an additional external financial need.”

A senior EU official said Tuesday that Eurozone finance ministers
are expected to open talks on modifying the details of Greece’s second
bailout program because months of political paralysis in the country
have caused reforms to stall. 
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FITCH PUBLISHES SPECIAL REPORT "REVISED ESTIMATES FOR SPANISH BANKS' DOMESTIC LOANS LOSSES"
RTR, 06/20 07:56AM

Source: Thomson News
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