Сингапурский доллар: Динамика, ключевые уровни и перспективы движения

Индекс валют Азии приблизился к ключевому уровню, который в предыдущем обзоре был определен как промежуточная цель движения. Несмотря на то, что долговой кризис в Еврозоне по-прежнему продолжает оказывать влияние на валютный рынок, азиатские валюты, входящие в индекс, ведут себя вполне достойно.


Отчасти это обусловлено тем, что рынки Юго-восточной Азии, кроме Китая, менее волатильны, и «страновые» индексы Сингапура, Малайзии, Тайваня и Филиппин позволяют инвесторам получать прибыль более значительную, чем может предложить «развитой мир». По крайней мере, количество фондов готовых вложить капиталы в страны юго-восточной Азии возросло за последний год, что в свою очередь поддерживает валюты стран входящих в азиатский валютный индекс.


 
Переоценка валют развитых стран к валютам азиатского региона по-прежнему остается вполне рабочей идеей. Хорошую прибыль, несмотря на «летний рынок», дали покупки сингапурского доллара за швейцарские франки и евро, сингапурский доллар против доллара США мы покупаем уже несколько лет.


Это связано и с идеей переоценки азиатских валют, и с учетом самой «цивилизованной» финансовой системы в азиатском регионе. Монетарные власти Сингапура «натасканы» самыми лучшими швейцарскими представителями финансовой элиты, которые уже давно заложили в Сингапуре достаточно прочный «монетарный фундамент». Сингапурский доллар обосновано оправдывает шутливое название – «азиатский франк».
 
Несмотря на то, что ЦБ Сингапура держит в строжайшей тайне подробности своей «валютной корзины», что в свою очередь добавляет приличную долю «необычайной неопределенности» и «развязывает руки» монетарным властям, спрос на финансовые инструменты страны остается на хорошем уровне. Что в свою очередь объясняет переоценку сингапурского доллара к ведущим валютам стран развитого мира.


Поскольку сценарий долгосрочный, курс сингапурского доллара против доллара США подвергается временным коррекциям. Тем не менее, ослабление сингапурского доллара происходит только в моменты достаточно сложных, для мировой экономики, процессов. Из значительных событий, достаточно сильное влияние оказали сабпрайм- кризис 2008 года в США и «монетарный коллапс» в Еврозоне в конце прошлого года. Но в остальное время, сингапурский доллар дорожает и часто используется как валюта «save haven».  

Рассматривая долгосрочный сценарий движения сингапурского доллара по отношению к американской валюте, мы будем учитывать некоторые специфические моменты присущие для этой валюты. Прежде всего эти моменты могут быть связаны с особенностью в монетарной политике Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), который исполняет роль Центрального Банка страны. На долгосрочном фрейме основной сценарий движения развивается в рамках нисходящей активной модели с целевыми уровнями… читать далее 

Комментарии (5)

свернуть / развернуть
+
Банк Швейцарии сегодня от евро избавляется, сразу видно умелые руки гномов, говорят что какой то крупный клиент у них сегодня, и его заявки будут исполнять весь день… ЕЦБ даже не пытается вмешаться)))
+
Экспорт из Китая в августе может оказаться даже хуже чем в июле и не превысит 1%. Такую информацию сообщают источники агентства MNI в китайском правительстве.


Экспорт Китая в августе может не превысить 1%
Chinese export growth this month may be even worse than July's anemic growth rate, a source has told MNI, acknowledging that the government underestimated the impact of the European debt crisis on trade flows. The source, who is close to the Ministry of Commerce, was speaking following the release of data showing that shipments from China rose by just 1% y/y in July, the worst monthly performance for a non-holiday month since November 2009. «Trade data will get worse. Export growth in August may be below 1%,» the source said. August trade data is scheduled for release on September 10. Even if this month sees a pick-up in shipment growth, the source's comments highlight growing concern within the government about the outlook for trade as well as an effort to ratchet down expectations for the full year. Exports to Europe fell 16.2% y/y last month, though the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday that overall growth was an average 5.5% y/y in July if European shipments were stripped out. The European debt crisis has pulled Chinese trade this year down to levels not seen since the global financial crisis. The average growth of exports to southeast Asia, Brazil and Russia are higher than those to developed markets, though the volumes of those shipments combined aren't enough to compensate for Europe's weakness. «We underestimated the European situation,» the source said. Despite expectations at the start of 2012 for an economic recovery following the Chinese New Year holiday, worse-than-expected April data saw the government quickly abandon its anti-inflationary bias and scramble to loosen policy. But major indicators — including trade — have arguably deteriorated further since then, and a source close to the General Administration of Customs said the outlook remains gloomy. The source said exports have also slowed on the back of a strong dollar and amid a shift in manufacturing industries from high-cost east coast areas to inland provinces. But he also acknowledged that global economic conditions will continue to weigh on Chinese trade. «In the short term, China's export situation is not very optimistic as there is little prospect of a global economic recovery,» the customs source said. Full-year trade growth of around 10% is one of the government's economic targets for 2012 and Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this week that his government is confident that social and economic development goals for this year will be met, despite the challenges. But some officials now believe that rate of growth looks too ambitious — trade rose 7.1% y/y during the first seven months of this year. «Frankly, it is going to be difficult to reach the expected target of 10% if the European market remains sluggish,» said Cheng Yongru, a division director in the Commerce Ministry's Bureau of Fair Trade for Imports & Exports. «In my view, 8% for exports may be good this year.»

 
+

ДАЙДЖЕСТ КИТАЙСКОЙ ПРЕССЫ
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned over the weekend of an uncertain outlook for exporters and of difficulties in stabilizing the economy in the second half of 2012. «The third quarter of the year is a critical period for China to realize this year's export growth target, and we should make targeted efforts to stabilize growth,» the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Wen as saying during an August 24 to 25 inspection trip to China's southern province of Guangdong, the heart of the country's export economy. «There are a number of factors that will affect the stability of the economy in the second half of this year, and there remains a high level of difficulty in stabilizing growth,» he warned. Stabilizing growth remains a priority in the second half, Wen said, adding that his government will ensure policy becomes more targeted and effective. (Xinhua News Agency) China's economy is expected to face new challenges, while downside pressure will also likely persist, the official People's Daily said in a front page editorial. The newspaper said economic difficulties are expected to continue for some time, adding that the government will step up policy fine-tuning. (People's Daily) The National Development and Reform Commission, China's economic planner, said a total investment of CNY2.36 trillion will be needed for energy saving projects during the current 12th Five-Year-Plan period (2011-2015). The majority of the money will come from private sector. (Shanghai Securities News) Weak economic growth, coupled with too many initial public offerings, have badly hurt investors' confidence and recent reforms in the stock market have also failed to boost market sentiment, the official Xinhua News Agency said in an editorial over the weekend. Xinhua said that in order to save the stock market, the central government should control the number of IPOs as well as short-selling in the futures market. (Xinhua News Agency) China's eastern Shandong province will launch a pilot program in some cities, requiring property developers to sell houses only after they are built, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Shandong Vice Governor Xia Geng, speaking at a provincial government meeting on property market controls. Chinese property developers are currently allowed to sell houses before they are built, using home buyers' money for construction. The change means property developers will now need far more money for home construction. (Xinhua News Agency)


+
«THE TELEGRAPH»  сообщает о новом стимулирующем плане Китая на общую сумму в 800 мллрд. фунтов.  



CТИМУЛИРОВАНИЕ В КИТАЕ
One Chinese province after another has stepped forward over the last fortnight to announce their plans, in what appears to be a propaganda effort to reassure the public that the economy is still on track. Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, promised over the weekend that the Chinese government would intensify its efforts to boost the economy in the second half of the year. On a visit to Guangdong, the heartland of China's export industry, Mr Wen warned that «there will still be a lot of problems and uncertainties in exports going forward. The third quarter is a crucial period». The Telegraph has travelled to the south of China over recent days to witness a slowdown in the coastal economy and in the export sector, and also to areas which are flourishing with new investment, and where the local economy is booming. The picture appears mixed. China, geographically almost the same size as the Eurozone, appears to be struggling in some areas and flourishing in others. A new inland corridor, running from Liaoning in the north to Guizhou in the south, through cities such as Wuhan and Changsha, is booming. In response, Guangdong has unveiled 177 «core projects» worth 1 trillion yuan, joining a long list of local governments to announce «stimulus» plans. The huge cities of Chongqing and Tianjin, meanwhile, both said they would spend 1.5 trillion yuan, while Guizhou, one of China's poorest provinces, has said it will spend 3 trillion yuan on eco-tourism and creating a series of national parks. The central government, meanwhile, said it would spend to plough 2.4 trillion yuan into reducing carbon emissions and energy conservation programmes over the next three years, and has already set aside 26bn yuan in subsidies to encourage consumers to switch to low-energy appliances. The role call of announcements may be a signal that after half a year of fine-tuning monetary policy, the government is preparing to take more drastic measures. While the Communist party had pencilled in slower growth of 7.5pc for this year, in order to restructure and rebalance the economy, there are indications that China may suffer, or may already have suffered, a «hard landing», where growth would fall to below 7pc. «A hard landing in China would look like the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 when exports collapsed, factories had no orders and migrant workers were laid off by the tens of millions,» says Wang Tao, an economist at UBS. Mr Wen said many «negative factors» would continue «to affect stable economic operations in the second half» and that the difficulties of boosting growth are «still relatively large». «Facing the current difficulties, we have to improve the operating environment for companies and enhance the corporate confidence,» he said. Many of the new stimulus projects appear to simply be restatements of existing commitments, and there was no indication of how they will be funded. However, economists at Barclays Capital said that, unlike the boom in infrastructure spending after the financial crisis, the projects are aimed at boosting China's technological capabilities and its domestic consumption. «These plans should have a reasonable 'quality control',» they said, in a note, adding that whether or not the plans were new or old, bringing them forward would be «helpful in offsetting the headwinds from external demand deceleration». Several economists remain confident that China will continue its blistering growth for several years to come. Justin Yifu Lin, the former chief economist at the World Bank, predicted that the Chinese economy would continue its high growth rate for «another 20 to 30 years». Mr Wen also said that, despite the problems, China's «economic fundamentals have not changed». He added: «We have a lot of good conditions and optimistic factors that will help stabilise growth».
+
Григорий, здравствуйте!
Пожалуйста, поделиться вашим взглядом на эту неделю + если есть   графиком выступлений в Джексон холе на этой неделе.
Заранее спасибо!!!
Только зарегистрированные и авторизованные пользователи могут оставлять комментарии.
© 2015 Medelle Finance