Будущим Председателем Банка Англии станет Марк Карни (нынешний глава Банка Канады)

Такое решение было принято после многосторонних переговоров между представителями нынешнего руководства Банка Англии, английского Казначейства и секретариата кабинета министров Британии. По данным британских деловых изданий, кандидатуру нынешнего главы Банка Канады на пост Председателя Банка Англии лоббировали высшие чиновники из МВФ и Всемирного Банка при содействии Мервина Кинга (нынешний глава британского ЦБ), и его назначение было согласовано лично с главой кабинета министров Британии еще в период встречи G 7 и последующей сессии МВФ и Всемирного Банка осенью текущего года. Пост главы Банка Англии господин Карни займет с 1 июля 2013 года и до этого момента останется руководить Резервным Банком Канады. 



ТЕКСТ ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯ О НАЗНАЧЕНИИ НОВОГО ГЛАВЫ БАНКА АНГЛИИ
The Bank of Canada announced that Her Majesty the Queen has approved the appointment of Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England effective 1 July 2013.


He will serve a five-year term. Governor Carney will continue to serve in his current position until 1 June to ensure a smooth transition to the next Governor of the Bank of Canada.


The Governor will remain Chair of the Financial Stability Board. Governor Carney said: «I am honoured to accept this important and demanding role, and to succeed Sir Mervyn King with whom I have worked closely over these past five years and from whom I learned so much.



This is a critical time for the British, European and global economies; a decisive period for reform of the global financial system including its leading financial centre, the City of London; and a crucial point in the Bank of England's history as it accepts vital new responsibilities.»



«It has been a privilege to serve as the eighth Governor of the Bank of Canada. I am proud of the Bank's contribution to the resilience of the Canadian economy throughout an unprecedented period of global turmoil. The Bank is helping to lead the reform of the global financial system.


It is introducing the most sophisticated currency in the world. And as the Government of Canada's fiscal agent, it is providing funds management and banking services with the highest reliability and resiliency.» «Canadians can be confident that such leadership will continue.


The depth and quality of its human resources, the dedication of its employees and the clarity of its strategic vision will ensure that the Bank will continue to promote the economic and financial welfare of all Canadians.»


«I would like to thank the Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada, Minister Flaherty and Prime Minister Harper for having given me this opportunity to serve Canada. I have done so to the best of my abilities and am humbled by the support I have received from both my colleagues at the Bank and from Canadians across this great country.»



The Board of Directors will shortly form a Special Committee comprised of independent directors whose mandate will be to undertake a recruitment process for the selection of the next Governor. Governors of the Bank of Canada are appointed by the independent directors, subject to the approval of the Minister of Finance and the federal Cabinet.

 

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Новости по фискальному обрыву: На этой неделе не ожидается никакой личной встречи между президентом Обамой и спикером Палаты Представителей Бонером, хотя между ними состоялась телефонная беседа, которую представители обеих сторон вроде бы назвали «плодотворной и конструктивной». Тем не менее, представитель Белого Дома заявил, что несмотря на телефонные переговоры и уверения господина Бонера в том, что он готов продвигаться в рамках переговорного процесса как можно дальше, личная встреча с президентом сейчас нецелесообразна так как, переговоры продвинулись не настолько далеко, чтобы был смысл в личном общении спикера с президентом. 




ФИСКАЛЬНЫЙ ОБРЫВ
President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner spoke by phone Saturday about the so-called fiscal cliff, as staff-level negotiations have produced no visible signs of progress on how to avoid the tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect in January.



The call, according to people familiar with the conversation, signals that high-level lines of communication remain open even though the White House isn't expected to hold another meeting between congressional leaders and the president this week. An administration aide said negotiations between GOP and White House staff members hadn't advanced far enough to justify calling another meeting of top leaders.



The administration aide said Mr. Obama and congressional leaders aren't expected to reconvene this week, in order to give their staffs more time to work through differences. In the meantime, Mr. Obama may hit the road this week to galvanize public support for his proposal to raise taxes on upper-income people.


Neither the White House nor congressional staff members would comment on the conversation or the state of negotiations. But one senior House GOP aide said, «Congressional and White House staff continue to work to find common ground that is consistent with the 'balanced approach' the White House says it wants—with significant spending cuts, and without job-killing small-business tax hikes.»


Despite both sides' early professions of optimism on fixing the budget impasse, the slow progress is a reminder of the philosophical divisions that remain. Inconclusive talks among high-level aides have done more to define the differences between the two parties than bridge them, according to people in both parties. Republican leaders have agreed to boost tax revenue by capping deductions rather than raising rates.


And senior Democrats have agreed to modest changes to programs such as Medicare. Each side has resisted ceding too much ground and views their adversaries' concessions as inadequate. With each passing day, the government moves closer to the fiscal cliff, the combination of $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that begin in January and that economists have said could tip the country back into a recession.



One veteran Democratic aide said he wasn't surprised major concessions hadn't been made, given that real deal making usually happens at the last minute, which he put at «two weeks away.» Republicans are trying to coax Democrats to agree to larger cuts in entitlements, in part by portraying their own concessions on taxes as a big retreat from past antitax pledges.


«Elections do have consequences,» said Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, a member of the House GOP leadership. «The bottom line is the president is getting his revenues. We can negotiate how much; we can minimize the damage to the economy.» Democrats, meanwhile, don't want to concede too much on entitlement programs before figuring out what will become of the current top income-tax rates, which they would like to raise.
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Объем чистых коротких позиций направленных на понижение курса евро увеличился по итогам прошлой недели до 91 тыс контрактов, почти на 10% больше чем неделей раньше. 


ДАННЫЕ ОБ ОБЪЕМЕ ОТКРЫТЫХ ВАЛЮТНЫХ ПОЗИЦИЙ ПО ЕВРО И ИЕНЕ
Speculative accounts added to their net euro short position as well as their net yen short position as per November 20, according to U.S.


Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, released Monday The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report — non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding options — showed speculators had a net euro short of -91,400 contracts as of November 20, compared to the net short of -83,646 contracts seen as per November 13.


This week's net short contrasts to the record net euro long of +119,538 contracts seen May 15, 2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418 contracts, seen June 5, 2012.

Speculative accounts had a net yen short of --51,389 contracts as per November 20, versus the prior week's net yen short of -30,447 contracts.


This is the largest net yen short position since April 24. The record net yen short of -188,077 contracts was seen June 26, 2007 and the record net yen long of +65,920 contracts seen March 25, 2008.
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Еврогруппа и МВФ достигли договоренности по Греции.Афины получат новый транш помощи (частями) и также получают снижение процентных ставок по своим нынешним долгам, в рамках программы помощи, а также продление по ним срок выплат еще на 15 лет. Также будет производиться выкуп части греческого долга с открытого рынка за счет средств полученных по новой кредитной программе



ТЕЗИСЫ ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯ ЕВРОГРУППЫ ПО ГРЕЦИИ
«The Eurogroup recalls that a full staff-level agreement has been reached between Greece and the Troika on updated programme conditionality and that, according to the Troika, Greece has implemented all agreed prior actions.


The Eurogroup in particular welcomes the updated assessment of the Troika that Greece has implemented in a satisfactory manner a wide ranging set of reforms, as well as the budget for 2013 and an ambitious medium term fiscal strategy 2013-16.


The Eurogroup noted with satisfaction that the updated programme conditionality includes the adoption by Greece of new instruments to enhance the implementation of the programme, notably by means of correction mechanisms to safeguard the achievement of both fiscal and privatisation targets, and by stronger budgeting and monitoring rules.


Greece has also significantly strengthened the segregated account for debt servicing. Greece will transfer all privatizations revenues, the targeted primary surpluses as well as 30% of the excess primary surplus to this account, to meet debt service payment on a quarterly forward-looking basis.


Greece will also increase transparency and provide full ex ante and ex post information to the EFSF/ESM on transactions on the segregated account. The Eurogroup again commended the authorities for their demonstrated strong commitment to the adjustment programme and reiterated its appreciation for the efforts made by the Greek citizens.


The Eurogroup noted that the outlook for the sustainability of Greek government debt has worsened compared to March 2012 when the second programme was concluded, mainly on account of a deteriorated macro-economic situation and delays in programme implementation


The Eurogroup considered that the necessary revision in the fiscal targets and the implied postponement of a primary surplus target of 4.5% of GDP from 2014 to 2016 calls for a broader concept of debt sustainability encompassing lower debt levels in the medium term, smoothing of the current financing hump after 2020 and easing of its financing.


The Eurogroup was informed that Greece is considering certain debt reduction measures in the near future, which may involve public debt tender purchases of the various categories of sovereign obligations. If this is the route chosen, any tender or exchange prices are expected to be no higher than those at the close on Friday, 23 November 2012.


The Eurogroup considers that, in recapitalising Greek banks, liability management exercises should be conducted in respect of remaining subordinated debt holders so as to ensure a fair burden sharing.


Against this background and after having been reassured of the authorities' resolve to carry the fiscal and structural reform momentum forward and with a positive outcome of the possible debt buy-back operation, the euro area Member States would be prepared to consider the following initiatives:



A lowering by 100 bps of the interest rate charged to Greece on the loans provided in the context of the Greek Loan Facility. Member States under a full financial assistance programme are not required to participate in the lowering of the GLF interest rates for the period in which they receive themselves financial assistance.


A lowering by 10 bps of the guarantee fee costs paid by Greece on the EFSF loans. An extension of the maturities of the bilateral and EFSF loans by 15 years and a deferral of interest payments of Greece on EFSF loans by 10 years.


These measures will not affect the creditworthiness of EFSF, which is fully backed by the guarantees from Member States.


A commitment by Member States to pass on to Greece's segregated account, an amount equivalent to the income on the SMP portfolio accruing to their national central bank as from budget year 2013. Member States under a full financial assistance programme are not required to participate in this scheme for the period in which they receive themselves financial assistance.



The Eurogroup stresses, however, that the above-mentioned benefits of initiatives by euro area Member States would accrue to Greece in a phased manner and conditional upon a strong implementation by the country of the agreed reform measures in the programme period as well as in the post-programme surveillance period. The Eurogroup is confident that, jointly, the above-mentioned initiatives by Greece and the other euro area Member States would bring Greece's public debt back on a sustainable path throughout this and the next decade and will facilitate a gradual return to market financing.


Euro area Member States will consider further measures and assistance, including inter alia lower co-financing in structural funds and/or further interest rate reduction of the Greek Loan Facility, if necessary, for achieving a further credible and sustainable reduction of Greek debt-to-GDP ratio, when Greece reaches an annual primary surplus, as envisaged in the current MoU, conditional on full implementation of all conditions contained in the programme, in order to ensure that by the end of the IMF programme in 2016, Greece can reach a debt-to-GDP ratio in that year of 175% and in 2020 of 124% of GDP, and in 2022 a debt-to-GDP ratio substantially lower than 110%.


As was stated by the Eurogroup on 21 February 2012, we are committed to providing adequate support to Greece during the life of the programme and beyond until it has regained market access, provided that Greece fully complies with the requirements and objectives of the adjustment programme.


The Eurogroup concludes that the necessary elements are now in place for Member States to launch the relevant national procedures required for the approval of the next EFSF disbursement, which amounts to EUR 43.7 bn. EUR 10.6 bn for budgetary financing and EUR 23.8 bn in EFSF bonds earmarked for bank recapitalisation will be paid out in December.


The disbursement of the remaining amount will be made in three sub-tranches during the first quarter of 2013, linked to the implementation of the MoU milestones (including the implementation of the agreed tax reform by January) to be agreed by the Troika. The Eurogroup expects to be in a position to formally decide on the disbursement by 13 December, subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece.»


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Свежие опросы в Германии пока демонстрируют, что правящая коалиция канцлера Меркель уступает по позициям своим конкурентам из коалиции социал-демократов и зеленых. 


ОПРОСЫ В ГЕРМАНИИ СРЕДИ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЕЙ
Germany’s Social Democrats and the Greens, partners in government from 1998 to 2005, were ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian


Democrats and their Free Democrat allies in the Bild Zeitung’s weekly INSA poll.

* SPD and Greens polled 29% and 15% respectively (plus 1 pt on a week ago): Bild * CDU and FDP gained 36% and 4% (minus 2 pts in week): Bild
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В США началась дискуссия о замене бумажных 1 долларовых банкнот с бумаги на монеты. Считается, что таим образом можно сэкономить на бумаге. 

В США ОБСУЖДАЕТСЯ ВОПРОС ЗАМЕНЫ БУМАЖНЫХ ДОЛЛАРОВ НА МОНЕТЫ
The U.S. should replace dollar bills with dollar coins, a watchdog said, a move that could be unpopular with the public but ultimately save the government money.


“We continue to believe that the government would receive a financial benefit from making the replacement,” Lorelei St. James, a director at the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office, said in remarks prepared for a Congressional hearing scheduled for Thursday.


Mining and metals companies, mass transit agencies, vending machine manufacturers and other groups favor a switch to coins. They are pitted against the company that makes the paper for U.S. currency, Crane & Co., and broad public opinion in favor of keeping the greenback.


Both sides have allies in Congress. Ultimately, the benefits of a switch would only accrue over many years. The GAO estimates that replacing $1 notes with $1 coins, which last decades longer than paper, could provide $4.4 billion in “net benefits” to the federal government over 30 years.


That averages out to less than $147 million a year, a tiny drop in the fiscal bucket. “We realize that replacing the $1 note with the $1 coin is controversial,” Ms. St. James said. “In fact, public opinion has consistently been opposed to the $1 coin.


” Last year, the U.S. Treasury curtailed production of dollar coins after finding that more than 40% had been returned to the government unwanted. At the time, government vaults held 1.4 billion such coins–enough to meet demand for a decade.

 
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ДОКЛАД КАЗНАЧЕЙСТВА США О СОСТОЯНИИ ВАЛЮТНЫХ КУРСОВ
Выдержка из вчерашнего доклада Казначейства США в котором были упомянуты европейские страны, в данном случае по Британии отмечается, что впервые с 2000 года инвестиционные доходы стали отрицательными  «For the UK, investment income turned negative for the first time since 2000.»

 
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ПОСЛЕДНИЕ КОММЕНТАРИИ СПИКЕРА ПАЛАТЫ ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ КОНГРЕССА США БОНЕРА ПО БЮДЖЕТНЫМ ПЕРЕГОВОРАМ
House Speaker John Boehner said Friday that little progress has been made in the talks between the White House and Congress in averting the fiscal cliff, and the Speaker put the blame squarely on President Obama's shoulders.


At a briefing, Boehner said the talks have deadlocked over basic issues: taxes and entitlements. «This is a stalemate,» Boehner said. «Right now, we're almost nowhere,» he added.


Boehner scheduled his briefing to respond to Obama's campaign style event in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. «We're ready to work with the president,» Boehner said, repeating his willingness to consider new revenues if they are achieved in the context of closing tax loopholes and improving the efficiency of the tax code.


He repeated his opposition to higher marginal tax rates. Boehner refused to put a timeline on the state of negotiations, but said «sooner is better than later» in reaching an agreement.


Boehner blasted Obama's initial budget offer this week as «not serious,» and said the GOP is still «seeking a bipartisan solution.» Republicans, he said, want a «balanced approach» that includes new revenues linked to entitlement reforms and spending controls.


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ОФИЦИАЛЬНОЕ ЗАЯВЛЕНИЕ СПИКЕРА ПАЛАТЫ ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ КОНГРЕССА БОНЕРА
“The president traveled to a small business in Pennsylvania today to talk about the fiscal cliff. Unfortunately, it is the president and members of his own party who are proposing that we let many small businesses, as in hundreds of thousands of them, go over the fiscal cliff.



Simply put, that’s why we don’t have an agreement as yet. “As I said yesterday, this is not a game. I used to be a small business owner. Small business owners are regular men and women from all backgrounds, who in today’s economy are facing challenges on a daily basis.



The president’s tax increase would be another crippling blow for them while doing little to nothing to solve the bigger problem here, which is our national deficit and our national debt.



“This debt doesn’t exist because we don’t tax small businesses enough. It exists because Washington continues to spend too much. “Raising taxes on small businesses instead of taking a balanced approach that also cuts spending is wrong.




It’s only going to make it harder for our economy to grow. And if our economy doesn’t grow, Americans don’t get new jobs and the debt problem that we have will continue to threaten our children’s future.



“As I said the day after the election, Republicans are not seeking to impose our will on the president. We’re seeking a bipartisan solution that can pass both chambers of Congress, and be signed into law by the president in the coming days.




“During the campaign, the president pledged to the American people that he would seek a balanced approach to addressing the debt – a combination of new revenues and spending cuts.


So the day after the election, I said the Republican majority would accept new revenue as part of a balanced approach that includes real spending cuts and reforms.




Now the White House took three weeks to respond with any kind of a proposal, and much to my disappointment, it wasn’t a serious one. “Still, I’m willing to move forward in good faith. Our original framework still stands.



“Instead of raising tax rates, we can produce a similar amount of revenue [by] reforming the tax code to close loopholes and lower tax rates. That’s far better for the economy, and the American people actually favor that approach by two-to-one.



They favor it even more when we can also show them that real spending cuts will, in fact, reduce the deficit. “Now there have been many conversations over the last couple of years that could inform a solution.



And I hope the president will draw from those discussions and work with both parties to find common ground.



“Solving the fiscal cliff in a manner that addresses the true drivers of our debt and saves American jobs would be a great way for the president to start his second term. For the good of the country, and my colleagues, we’re ready to work with the president to achieve those goals.”




boehner.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=313716
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Несмотря на внешнюю стабильность фондовых индексов в Нью-Йорке и относительную слабость доллара, история с фискальным обрывом все-таки постепенно развивается в сторону роста напряженности инвестиционных настроений. По крайне мере, объемы торгов по опционам и фьючерсам на индекс волатильности VIX  вчера достигли самых высоких показателей в истории. Одновременно, до рекордных значений увеличился показатель разницы между длинными позициями по контрактам на  VIX со стороны хеджеров и короткими позициями против VIX со стороны спекулянтов. 


ОБЪЕМЫ ТОРГОВ НА ИНДЕКС ВОЛАТИЛЬНОСТИ ВЫРОСЛИ ДО РЕКОРДНОГО УРОВНЯ
Trading in CBOE Volatility Index futures hit an all-time high for the third month in a row in November, eve as the market’s so-called fear gauge itself remains muted by historical standards. Last month, 2.7 million contracts changed hands, more than double year-earlier levels and 12% higher than October.


November was helped early on by pre-election positioning. This month could see similar action thanks to the fiscal cliff.

The VIX recently fell 1.1% to 16.45. For more than four months, the VIX has traded below its two-decade historical average of 20, its longest such streak in more than five years.

Some investors interpret the benign numbers as evidence that worries about gridlock in Washington and the slowing global economy are overblown.

But others worry that the low readings are a sign of complacency, and that the potential for further declines in response to unexpected bad news isn’t reflected in stock prices.
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Неплохая статья на WSJ по поводу конъюнктуры долгового рынка в мире. Сравнение ставки доходности суверенных качественных бумаг и надежных корпоративных по отношению к дивидендной доходности тех же надежных компаний или корпораций с постоянной генерацией кеша (тот же Apple).



 



ДОЛГОВОЙ РЫНОК И ДИВИДЕНДЫ КОРПОРАЦИЙ
Investors have been flocking to buy bonds issued by top-rated companies, putting them on pace for a record year of debt raising in the U.S. But some of the biggest fund managers warn that dangers are lurking in what were once seen as the safest investments.


Amid the rush of bond deals, which already have topped $1 trillion in value, these managers—from BlackRock Inc. BLK +0.68% to Federated Investment Management Co.—are pointing to unusual wrinkles suggesting that now could be one of the most dangerous times in decades to lend to investment-grade companies. Interest rates are so low and bond prices so high, they warn, that there is little room left for gains.



Some worry that even a small increase in interest rates—a traditional enemy of bond returns—could eat away at bond prices. For the first time in decades, some companies are offering a dividend yield—the value of annual dividend payments divided by the share price—that is higher than the interest rate they pay on their bonds, meaning that investors could get a better stream of income from stocks. As a result, some of the largest investing houses—including BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, and Federated—are looking for ways to reduce their exposure to U.S. corporate bonds. At Loomis Sayles & Co., a large bond manager, some money managers are moving into stocks and convertible bonds. «Fixed-income is becoming an asset class with more risk to it, and I think people underestimate that,» said Rick Rieder, who oversees more than $600 billion in assets as BlackRock 's chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income. He is making changes to minimize his exposure to potential losses from rising interest rates, including buying higher-yielding junk bonds and European debt. «It would take very little in the way of a rate increase for investors to lose their total returns across many traditional fixed income sectors.» For now, investors and companies are still rushing into the market. Companies from General Electric Co. GE +0.66% to Intel Corp. INTC +1.56% sold bonds this week, putting sales on pace to break the 2009 record of $1.024 trillion, according to data provider Dealogic.


The average double-A rated bond, the second-best grade given by credit-rating firms, yields 1.96%, compared with the average dividend of 2.33% for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.06% Wal-Mart Stores, WMT -0.08% for instance, now pays a 2.22% dividend on its stock, up from 2.17% two years ago. Its bond maturing in 2020 yields 1.875%, from 4% two years ago. Investors have been piling into bonds sold by investment-grade rated companies for the past few years, pouring a total of $976 billion into corporate-bond mutual funds since the end of 2008, according to Thomson Reuters unit Lipper. These bonds were viewed as a sweet spot for many investors because they were considered less risky than stocks but also offered higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds.


That drove prices up and yields down. High-grade corporate bonds have returned 10.13% so far this year, up from 8.15% last year, according to a Barclays BARC.LN +0.10% PLC index. The demand prompted global companies to sell $3.65 trillion of debt in the past four years. But the massive rally, which saw the average yield of an investment-grade corporate bond fall to 2.66% from 4.04%, means there is now little cushion should interest rates rise. As rates rise, the value of existing bonds with lower yields declines. Yields are so low companies often borrow below the 2.2% inflation rate, meaning bondholders are losing money in real terms.


«This seems mathematically crazy,» said Joe Balestrino, senior vice president for fixed-income at Federated in Pittsburgh. He owns fewer investment-grade corporate bonds than the benchmark index his fund tracks. Bond math dictates that losses will be magnified when interest rates are low, and when bond maturities are long, as they are now.


The average corporate bond sold in 2012 matured in more than 11 years, up from less than eight years in 2009, according to Dealogic. According to Barclays data, if interest rates rose by just one percentage point, the average bond issued in 2012 would lose 5.12% of its value.


By contrast, the same scenario in 2007, when rates were higher and maturities shorter, would have caused a 1.82% decline. And even if rates don't rise, the chances of a continued rally are slim, some skeptics say.


To generate capital appreciation, prices have to keep climbing, pushing yields lower. With average yields so low, another 10% annual return—the median average over the past three decades—would be «mathematically impossible» unless medium-term Treasury yields—the benchmark for corporate debt—fall to zero, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategist Hans Mikkelson.


Some analysts and investors argue that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. The Fed is still buying Treasury and mortgage bonds, keeping rates low, and has said it will keep overnight interest rates near zero through at least 2014.


«With Fed support, the demand for high-grade bonds will remain strong,» said Eric Beinstein, credit strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.66% & Co. He projects a 5.4% total return in high-grade bonds next year. Matt Eagan, co-portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., is looking for ways to avoid what he sees as a wall in bond prices.



He increased the portion of stock holdings in his $14.6 billion Strategic Income Fund to 18%, the highest since its inception in 1995. Another 10% is in convertible bonds that can convert into stock. «We haven't seen this situation where corporate bonds are out-yielded by their equities since the early 1970s,» Mr. Eagan said.


«As long as your time horizon is long enough and you can absorb some of the volatility, we think you have a better chance of preserving principal on the equity side.»


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S&P: OUTLOOK ON UK 'AAA' RATING REVISED TO NEG FROM STABLE
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