Валютный рынок: Австралия и Китай готовятся заключить соглашение о торговле юанем на бирже в Сиднее

Речь идет о так называемом оффшорном валютном центре для торговли юанем за пределами Китая. В настоящий момент такая торговля происходит только в Гонконге и скоро будет запущена в Лондоне и Сингапуре.

В рамках таких операций можно будет свободно обменивать напрямую юань на другие валюты и открывать счета в китайской валюте. Сообщение о том, что рынок по торговле юанем будет открыт в Сиднее сначала появилось в китайской газете " South China Morning Post" где со ссылкой на неназванные источники в Администрации по валютному контролю Китая, говорилось о достижении подобного соглашения между правительствами двух стран.

Чуть позднее, эту информацию косвенно подтвердили в Казначействе Австралии. Чиновник из австралийского финансового ведомства сказал, что право открывать рынок по торговле юанем не является эксклюзивным для Лондона и Сингапура и что китайские власти заинтересованы в том, чтобы существовала конкуренция между оффшорными рынками по торговле юанем.

Если сопоставить факты, то в начале июля представители австралийского правительства включая министра финансов господина Wayne Swan, посетят Гонконг во время экономического форума посвященного валютной политике в азиатском и тихоокеанском регионе.

В расписании этого турне затем значится посещение Пекина и переговоры с руководством Китая по поводу соглашения о свободной торговле между странами. Как ожидается, именно в рамках этих переговоров и будет объявлено о создании оффшорного валютного центра по юаню на австралийском финансовом рынке.

Если Австралия получает подобное право, то в таком случае существенно упрощается режим свободного обмена валютами и китайские банки которые сейчас выходят на австралийский рынок, смогут предоставлять кредитные линии в юанях для своих австралийских контрагентов и также осуществлять операции по открытию счетов номинированных в юанях. Этот момент значительно сокращает зависимость австралийских банков от долларового фондирования. 


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Китайские экспортеры стали придерживать доллары для продажи, так как уже нет уверенности что курс юаня будет укрепляться в ближайшее время. Такое происходит впервые за последние почти 6 лет. Раньше экспортеры продавали баксы в тот же день как получали эти американские деньги на свои счета, теперь предпочитают ждать более выгодного курса. 

BEIJING—Many Chinese exporters are starting to hoard the dollars they earn, betting that the yuan is unlikely to appreciate much more, a shift in strategy that is having a ripple effect throughout the country’s financial system.
Until recently, Chinese exporters like state-owned Huihong International Group and privately held Saijia Co. had rushed to sell their dollar earnings to banks as soon as they got paid, in exchange for the appreciating yuan. Now, because the Chinese currency no longer seems certain to rise, those companies are holding their dollars for as long as they can.
“In the past, we would exchange our dollar earnings for renminbi on the same day we received the payment,” said Fang Minghua, head of Saijia, a company in eastern China’s Jiangsu province that sells clothing to the U.S., Australia, Japan and Europe. “Now, we’re not in the rush to sell” dollars, Mr. Fang said. “We would like to wait and see.”
That change has broad implications not just for Chinese companies, but also for China’s banks, which are finding themselves with less foreign currency on reserve. For four months in the past eight months, the banks sold more foreign currency than they bought, a sign of the shift in corporate China toward holding dollars.
Because companies aren’t converting their dollars to yuan, fewer yuan are flowing into the economy. That has prompted the People’s Bank of China to slash the banks’ reserve-requirement ratio, known as RRR, three times since November to help banks lend more. The ratio measures the share of deposits banks are required to hold as reserves.
“To some extent, the changes made by corporate treasurers are having an impact on China’s monetary policy,” said He Weisheng, a Shanghai-based analyst at Citigroup Inc.
Chinese companies started to rejigger their foreign-exchange strategies late last year, when the yuan came under pressure from a global rush for dollars and other currencies historically viewed as havens.
China keeps a tight rein on the yuan, also known as the renminbi, by keeping it trading in a preset band. The yuan gained 4.7% last year against the dollar and has jumped about 25% since its revaluation in 2005. It has dipped 1% so far this year, and traded at about 6.3575 against the dollar late in Asia on Thursday.‪
The recent weakness has come after China loosened the yuan’s daily trading limits in April, one of the most significant moves to liberalize the currency since mid-2010. Many analysts recently have dialed back their expectations for yuan appreciation this year to less than 2% from a previous forecast of roughly 3%.
“Given the way renminbi trades these days, it makes sense for exporters to hold onto dollars as opposed to rush to sell dollars, and for importers to switch from borrowing dollars to buying dollars to pay their foreign suppliers,” Xu Peng, an official at Huihong International, a state-owned textiles company that earned about $500 million from sales overseas last year.
PBOC officials have indicated that banks’ foreign-exchange positions play a major role in the central bank’s decision to reduce banks’ reserve requirements. At a news conference in March, PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan indicated such cuts are a tool to offset the impact of companies hoarding dollars.
“Theoretically speaking, there is much room for RRR cuts,” Mr. Zhou said at the time, while noting that any adjustment of the ratio would depend on how banks’ foreign-exchange positions and the balance of international payments affect market liquidity.
A report issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, said China could further cut the ratio as the broad money supply has grown more slowly this year. Rapid growth in the money supply tends to lead to inflation.
That recommendation joined other calls for more monetary loosening to help businesses cope with a credit squeeze that has plagued small businesses in the past year, rather than for the government to unleash another large stimulus package like the one launched during the previous global financial crisis.
When the yuan was rising strongly, Chinese importers settling their payments in dollars preferred to borrow, rather than buy, dollars from banks. In the past decade, Chinese companies have accumulated about $800 billion in debt from such borrowing, Citigroup’s Mr. He estimates.
A typical strategy would involve a company depositing yuan on the mainland and using it as collateral to borrow dollars. The company would make money on the difference between the high Chinese deposit rate and the low dollar borrowing rate, also booking a gain from the yuan’s appreciation against the dollar.
“It had been a very profitable strategy throughout the years as the yuan appreciated steadily,” Mr. He said. “Now, however, it bears the question how this ‘short-dollar’ position would impact the market when the outlook for yuan appreciation becomes murkier.”
input prices c 55,9 в марте до 41,2 в июне. Красавцы. За счёт чего такая дефляция издержек?  
 Aud central bank rate will be left at the same level 3.5% on 7 Aug in this situation ?
Власти города Guangzhou в китайской провинции Guangdong объявили о введении ограничений в регистрации новых автомобилей, чтобы попытаться разгрузить трафик движения на дорогах. Вместо 19 000 новых авто которые регистрировались каждый месяц в прошлом году, теперь введена планка в 10 000 новых авто.

CHINA: Guangzhou, the capital city of the rich Guangdong province,
announced over the weekend to limit the amount of car registration
plates issued every month to ease traffic pressure. Guangzhou government
said 10,000 car plates will be given out per month, starting from August
1. The city issued average 19,000 car plates per month in 2011.
Guangzhou is the third city to use car registration plates to solve
traffic problem, following Shanghai and Beijing, where car sales were
badly hit because of the measure. Guangzhou government said its measure
will last for one year for now and will review its effect.
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