Японский рынок: Первая пресс-конференция новых членов Банка Японии

 Речь идет о пресс-конференции которую проводили вновь назначенные члены Совета Директоров Банка Японии господа Takahide Kiuchi и Takehiro Sato. Именно эти персоны, стали первыми инвестбанкирами в истории Банка Японии, которые вошли в состав монетарного комитета. Об этих инвестбанкирах, которые получили возможность влиять на денежно-кредитную политику Банка Японии, мы упоминали в июньском посте . Именно они обещали сделать все возможное, чтобы остановить рост иены и победить дефляцию. На сегодняшней пресс-конференции пока не было особой сенсации. Эти господа еще раз повторили, что Банку Японии не хватает гибкости, чтобы противостоять развитию дефляционной тенденции. Нынешняя политика руководства Банка Японии не способна изменить настроения и увеличить показатели инфляции до приемлемого уровня в 1%. Необходимо сделать реальные процентные ставки отрицательными, чтобы добиться какого-то значимого результата. Также предлагается в рамках программы количественного смягчения, начать масштабные покупки финансовых активов как внутри Японии таки и на внешнем рынке. Поэтому Банк Японии должен приступить к выкупу и  более рискованных активов с высоким уровнем дохода. Такое количественное смягчение поможет наращивать объем балансового счета Банка Японии и таким образом создатс избыточное предложение иен, что спровоцирует ослабление курса. 


The Bank of Japan will need to flexibly consider a new easing approach if current steps are deemed insufficient to beat deflation, a top economist newly appointed to the central bank's policy board said on Tuesday.

He said it was necessary to cut real interest rates and raise inflation expectations.

Sato said his proposal of foreign bond buying is aiming at
increasing the supply of funds, not manipulating foreign exchange rate,
but he acknowledged that there are some barriers to overcome before
starting foreign bond purchases.
 He added that buying assets with higher risk than the assets the
BOJ is currently buying, such as real estate investment trusts, could
also be a choice for additional easing.
     Meanwhile, Kiuchi said additional easing would be needed if it
becomes difficult for core CPI, excluding fresh food, to reach the 1%
price goal, but he declined to elaborate.
     The BOJ has said it will maintain its zero interest rate policy
until it can foresee a 1% y/y rise in CPI. 
     Kiuchi said that the current 1% CPI goal is «appropriate,» adding,
«I am sure that deflation is easing.»
     But he said there is «high uncertainty» whether core CPI can reach
the 1% goal in fiscal 2014. 
     Meanwhile, Sato said the current 1% goal is acceptable, but
«Ideally the goal is 2%» which is now seen as an international standard,
adding that it is difficult for him to forecast core CPI to  accelerate
toward 1% in the next fiscal year. 

 Sato stressed that recovery in wages, in addition to improving in
output gap, is «key» to overcoming deflation.
He also said the European situation is «the highest tail risk» for
the Japanese economy, adding that the situation has been deteriorating.
Meanwhile, Sato said he does not see BOJ's ongoing buying of
government bonds through the market as «monetization» as it is different
from direct buying of government bonds from the government.  
     Kiuchi and Sato are seen as dovish as they have called on the BOJ
to conduct more monetary easing in order to help Japan overcome years of

Комментарии (15)

свернуть / развернуть
Бывший член Совета Директоров Банка Японии господин Atsushi Mizuno рассуждает о роли которую могут сыграть для Банка Японии вновь назначенные в Совет Директоров господа из инвестбанкинга. Atsushi Mizuno полагает, что их роль может оказаться очень позитивной, так как усилит взаимопонимание рынка с действиями Банка Японии.

The Bank of Japan’s two new board members will help improve investors’ understanding of the central bank’s price projections, a former policy maker said.
“The biggest problem is the vast gap” between the central bank’s and investors’ perceptions on growth and prices, resulting from the bank’s overly optimistic outlook, Atsushi Mizuno, 52, who was on the BOJ board from 2004-2009, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “I see value in having two additional members who can help address

“The two new members have a different view on the price outlook” from that of the BOJ, Mizuno said. “Their view is that the effects of current monetary measures are too small to end deflation, and I completely agree with this.”

Mizuno said the BOJ could improve its communication with investors. Shirakawa tends to emphasize the limitations of monetary policy in defeating deflation, calling on the government, banks and companies to do their share to end price declines, Mizuno said. He said that contrasts with the style of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who says his central bank has done so much and still has room to do more.
“It’s vital to keep one’s message concise and simple,” Mizuno said. “Governor Shirakawa is intelligent and careful but his communication style is difficult to understand.”
Протокол Банка Японии от последнего заседания показал, что несколько членов Совета Директоров настаивали на дополнительных мерах по стимулированию.  

Протокол Банка Японии
A few of the Bank of Japan board members said the central bank should stay on alert for a higher downside risk and take action without ruling out any easing options, the minutes of the July 11-12 BOJ policy meeting released on Tuesday showed. «A few members said that Japan's economy could be adversely affected through various channels if, for example, a substantial risk materialized, stemming from the European debt problem,» the minutes said. «These members continued that the BOJ should stand ready to take appropriate actions without ruling out any options in advance.» At its two-day meeting last month, the BOJ's nine-member policy-setting panel (two vacancies were filled on July 24) voted unanimously to maintain practically zero short-term interest rates and left the scale of its financial asset-buying at Y70 trillion after raising in April from Y65 trillion. In a technical move, the BOJ decided to integrate its three- and six-month fixed-rate funding operations into one category with loan durations within 6 months «in order to respond flexibly to liquidity demand by financial institutions.» The BOJ also lowered the scale of its combined three- and six-month fixed-rate operations by Y5 trillion to Y25 trillion but increased the size of Treasury discount bill operations by Y5 trillion to Y9.5 trillion. The policy board also decided to scrap «the minimum bidding yield (currently 0.1%) for the outright purchases of Treasury discount bills and CP in order to ensure their smooth purchases.» The decision is aimed at coping with continued undersubscription at the bank's six-month fixed-rate fund-injecting operations for the 14 straight bidding since April 16 until the July 11-12 meeting. Despite the recent undersubscription, the board agreed that it is vital that «the BOJ — with a view to clarifying its policy stance to pursue powerful monetary easing — steadily increase the amount outstanding of the asset buying program.» The board also noted that «the occurrence of undersubscription itself was attributable to a decline in the prevailing interest rates in the short-term money market, which had often been below 0.1%, and indicated that the effects of the BOJ's powerful monetary easing had been permeating the financial markets.» «Members discussed the relationship between the set of measures proposed at this meeting and the interest rate applied to the complementary deposit facility,» the minutes said. With regard to the drop in long-term interest rates around the globe in July, some members said that «interest rates could eventually rise to levels consistent with the growth rates, but on the other hand, the growth rate could decline to levels consistent with the interest rate levels.» One member said that «attention should continue to be paid to the risk that a worsening of the European debt problem would lead to a decline in stock prices and an appreciation of the yen, which would negatively affect business and household sentiment, for example, thereby exerting downward pressure on Japan's economy.» «A few members commented that, as a mechanism through which overseas economies would emerge at some point from the deceleration phase, it was likely that both the U.S. and Chinese economies would become the driving force in the global economy by generating positive effects for each other,» the minutes said. One member added that in assessing the future growth rates of overseas economies, it was necessary to bear in mind the possibility that the potential growth rates of these economies could be declining due to the effects of the financial crisis and the European debt problem. «The members shared the recognition that the key factor was whether domestic demand would remain firm until a recovery in external demand became evident,» the minutes said.
Из-за разногласий с Южной Кореей по поводу принадлежности спорных территорий, Минфин Японии пригрозил разорвать соглашение о взаимной покупке облигаций. Ранее были достигнуты договоренности между Японией и корейцами по поводу валютного свопирования и приобретении долговых бумаг друг у друга, в рамках финансовой стабилизации в условиях кризиса. 

Заявление Минфина Японии по поводу соглашений
TOKYO (MNI) — Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday that his government has not yet decided on whether it should go ahead with a plan to buy South Korean government bonds amid a long-standing bilateral territorial dispute. Japan and South Korea agreed in May to mutually hold each other's government bonds in a bid to help stabilize regional financial markets. Azumi also told reporters that Tokyo will decide whether to extend its currency swap agreement with South Korea after it sees a response from Seoul about the territorial row and remarks by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak regarding Japan's wartime past. Tokyo protested Lee's visit earlier this month to Takeshima — or Dokdo in Korean — a group of islets between the two countries controlled by South Korea but claimed by Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has also urged Lee to apologize for controversial remarks about Emperor Akihito. Lee said the emperor would not be welcome in South Korea without a direct acknowledgment of guilt for Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945. Akihito acceded to the throne in 1989. Last year, Tokyo and Seoul increased the currency swap agreement to $70 billion from $13 billion to ensure South Korea had ample dollar funds amid global financial market turmoil caused by the European debt and political crisis. Azumi has said Japan responded to South Korea's request for help. Of the $70 billion, the Bank of Japan agreed with the Bank of Korea last October to boost their yen-won swap accord to a maximum $30 billion U.S. dollar equivalent from $3 billion, amid fears that the European debt crisis could push the global economy back into a recession. The temporary increase is effective until the end of October this year. At the height of the European crisis, some lenders in emerging economies — including South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Brazil — found that European banks they rely on for funding were withdrawing their loans to tackle their own credit risks. The yen-won swap agreement, which is designed for a non-crisis situation, took effect in May 2005, with a view to stabilizing regional financial markets through supplying short-term liquidity.
Bank of  Japan  считает йену переоценённой.
Чем дольше длится состояние сильной йены,  тем громче призывы к вмешательству эмиссионного центра. Предпочитающие уход от риска инвесторы продолжают видеть в японской валюте save haven.
В субботней статье «Франкфуртер Аллгемейне» повторен критический уровень начала интервенирования озвученныый Минфином  Jun Azumi весной в 75,63 против USD, равно как и приведено июльское заключение аналитиков  HSBC,  что японская валюта ещё в июле по сравнению « Dollar und Euro»  единственно надёжный save haven   „der einzig wahre sichere Hafen“.
Инвесторов доходность япобондов в  0,81 %  не отпугивает: „Investoren, die Sicherheit suchen, lassen sich auch durch eine Rendite von 0,81 Prozent bei zehnjährigen Papieren nicht abschrecken.“
Мда… вот так почитаешь газетки и сразу анекдот советских времен вспоминается когда когда после соревнования по бегу между 2 лидерами: Никитой Хрущевым и Джоном Кеннеди газета «Правда» вышла с заметкой: «В упорной борьбе Никита Сергеевич занял второе место, в то время, как Джон Кеннеди довольствовался лишь предпоследним»....

О каких инвесторах идет речь? и кто вообще учитывает ставку доходностей по японским бондам, когда по факту Япония является одним из крупнейших экспортеров капитала? Причем на протяжении десятилетий…

Вот для примера количество «внешних инвесторов» Австралия и Япония… (красные стрелочки)

Вообще в Японии с 1994 года создан совет по иностранным инвестициям во главе с премьер-министром. В этот «совет» входят представители ключевых министерств и ведомств, которые реально регулируют инвестиционные потоки. Так вот… Объем иностранных инвестиций на душу населения составлял всего 154 долларов США, если сравнить этот показатель с Европой или США это вообще — пыль…

К тому же Япония имеет привилегии в ОЭСР, и под вывеской «национальной безопасности» запрещает инвестирование в себя любимую в любых секторах экономики. А тем кому удается — имеют в любом случае «птичьи права».

Так же в этот совет входит могущественная «Кэйдзай дантай рэнгокай»… сокращенно — Кэйданрэн… Это «финансовая Якудза» созданная в далеком 1946 году, и без их одобрения никто никуда и никогда не инвестирует. И ставка доходности по японобондам здесь роли не играет. К тому же политики страны восходящего солнца полностью зависимы от этой ОПГ… Под ними и Нихон сёко кайгисё (торгово-промышленная палата), и Никкэйрэн (федерация предпринимателей) и Кэйдзай доюкай (корпоративщики), находятся…

Про «инвестиции» в фондовый рынок Японии, тоже говорить тяжко… Ибо там «пушной зверек» вот уже сколько лет медитирует у подножья Фудзи…

Картинка из обзора по Никкей

Никкей история

Так что… как там у классиков… «И — боже вас сохрани — не читайте до обеда советских газет!» =)

Да, а по йене, там же в обзоре по Nikkei, есть график йена доллар за 150 лет… И таки до войнушки курс йены к баксу был всего лишь 3 йены за доллар)) и ничего… Минфин Японии конечно может плакать о «дорогой йене», но я с 2007 года жду её в районе 60-57 йен за доллар… И всё по причине того, что в последние десятилетия, Япония получала  с «экспорта дешевых денег» больше доходов, чем от промышленного экспорта =) И понимая что монетарная политика ФРС изменится и доходность вместе с %% кредитования сделают «сепуку» японскому незамысловатому бизнесу, долгосрочно спекулятивно её покупала..))))

И это не «save haven» — это репатриация японских дешевых денег с замещением оных на дешевые деньги США, Европы итд…
Спасибо за новость, Григорий!
Правящая Демократическая партия Японии подготовила манифест обращенный к Банку Японии, с призывом начать активную покупку иностранных долговых бумаг в рамках стратегии борьбы с сильной иеной.

Манифест к Банку Японии
Japan's ruling party called on the Bank of Japan on Wednesday to buy foreign bonds as a new policy step aimed at countering the strong yen and beating deflation. In a draft election manifesto, the ruling Democratic Party urged the government and the central bank to work closely together on fiscal and monetary policies to combat the yen's excessive rise and overcome deflation, which has plagued the economy for much of the past two decades. The Democrats are expected to face an uphill battle in the next general election for parliament's lower house, which Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has promised to call «soon» in order to obtain the opposition's backing for a contentious sale tax hike. The manifesto also called for a swift exit from reliance on nuclear power. A few minutes before the draft was released, BOJ board member Ryuzo Miyao had ruled out the possibility of the central bank buying foreign bonds.

Это их выдвиженцы Takahide Kiuchi и Takehiro Sato. Пока старая гвардия BOJ отбивается =)

Мияо сегодня улыбнул публику фразой которую он адресовал в ответ политикам: «BOJ buying foreign bonds would be equivalent to forex intervention, which is prohibited to do by law» =) (кто бы говорил)
ну тут дело такое… а вдруг они весь Банк Японии инвестбанкирами заменят?))
Не заменят =) Там ещё со времен реформ Мэйдзи (где-то 150 лет) всё четко поделено и распределено. Если бы у Японии была англо-американская модель то такие замены были бы возможны, но у них японская модель управления. Они даже «геометрически» по разному выглядят =) англо-американская структура как треугольник, а японская модель ввиде шестиугольника, что исключает нарушение «гармнонии» во взаимоотношениях ключевых структур =) Благодаря шестиугольной модели, самураи вполне прилично выживают в условиях кризиса вот уже 20 лет. Но это показательно, что выдвиженцам от «Кэйдайрен» поддерживающим и правящую партию, дала по зубам «старая гвардия» BOJ =) ибо нефик нарушать «божественную геометрию»…
Китайцы могут рассмотреть вариант «атаки» на Японию через японский долговой рынок. То есть начать скидывать свои пакеты японских суверенных бумаг. По крайне мере такой вариант предлагают экономические советники китайского правительства, на тот случай если конфликт с японцами будет разрастаться. Заодно рассматриваются предложения прекратить в Японию поставки редкоземельных металлов. 

Jin Baisong from the Chinese Academy of International Trade – a branch of the commerce ministry – said China should use its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn (£141bn) of bonds to “impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner” and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head.

Writing in the Communist Party newspaper China Daily, Mr Jin called on China to invoke the “security exception” rule under the World Trade Organisation to punish Japan, rejecting arguments that a trade war between the two Pacific giants would be mutually destructive.

Separately, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China is drawing up plans to cut off Japan’s supplies of rare earth metals needed for hi-tech industry.

The warnings came as anti-Japanese protests spread to 85 cities across China, forcing Japanese companies to shutter factories and suspend operations. Fitch Ratings threatened to downgrade a clutch of Japanese exporters if the clash drags on.

It warned that Nissan is heavily at risk with 26p of its global car sales in China, followed by Honda with 20pc. Sharp and Panasonic both have major exposure.

Japan’s exports to China were $74bn in the first half of this year. Bilateral trade reached $345bn last year. Mr Jin said China can afford to sacrifice its “low-value-added” exports to Japan at a small cost.

By contrast, Japan relies on Chinese demand to keep its economy afloat and stave off “irreversible” decline. “It’s clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much,” he said.

It is unclear whether he was speaking with the full backing of the Politburo or whether sales of Japanese debt would do much damage. The Bank of Japan could counter the move with bond purchases. Any weakening of the yen would be welcome.

A recent study by the US Defence Department concluded that a Chinese firesale of US debt was not a serious threat. The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, was in Beijing on Tuesday to try to stem the political crisis, calling for restraint on both sides.

He warned earlier that “provocations” over the islands could spiral out of control and lead to conflict. Mr Panetta said the US is neutral but this is a hard balancing act, given the US nuclear umbrella for Japan and its use of military bases on Japanese soil as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”.

The ambiguity of the US role was glaring after a deal with Tokyo on Monday to build a new anti-missile radar shield – ostensibly against North Korea.

Diplomats say China is calibrating the crisis to probe the strength of US ties with Japan, knowing that alliance fatigue in Washington and the clumsy handling of the dispute by Tokyo has created a rare opportunity.

The Obama administration must navigate a delicate course. A tough line against China risks putting the world’s two superpowers on a collision course: a soft line risks setting off alarm bells in Japan and pushing the country towards rearmament.

Christian Le Miere from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the crisis had become dangerous, citing Mao Zedong’s aphorism from 1930 that “a single spark can start a prairie fire”.

He said the region is “rife with historical enmity and chauvinism”, encouraged by Tokyo’s “seeming lack of contrition for wartime atrocities” and China’s own well-nurtured narrative of humiliation by foreigners.

China’s post-Maoist regime derives its legitimacy from nationalism, especially now that the boom is fading and China is losing some of its competititve edge.

The anti-Japanese fervour was systematically stoked by the “Patriotic Education Campaign” of Jiang Zemin in the 1990s to divert attention from party corruption and the growing gap between rich and poor. But it is a double-edged sword for China’s leaders.

“Given its potency, it is difficult to control. Nationalism can turn against the government, if it is perceived as doing too little,” he said. Markets are already starting to price in an arms race in Asia. Shares of China’s North Navigation Control Technology, which makes missile systems, have jumped 30pc in recent days.

China is becoming self-sufficient in defence. It was the world’s biggest net importer of weapons six years ago. It fell to fourth place last year. Japan is at the other extreme.

An official report this year – “A Strategy for Survival” – said Japan’s spending on its “Self-Defence Force” had shrunk by 4pc in 10 years. It called for “urgent” action to rebuild the country’s military. If there is any silver lining in an Asian arms race, it may at least soak up the region’s excess savings and pull the world out of semi-slump. But be careful what you wish for.

Григорий, Вы как оцениваете данный конфликт и его разростание именно в данный момент, а также возможные его последствия?
ну если это не элемент глобальной стратегии федералов, то полагаю что япам есть терять гораздо больше, чем товарищам. ну и вроде как есть признаки что япы ищут пути для отступления, правда хотят «сохранить лицо». По крайне мере комменты от японского минфина на что то такое намекают.

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Wednesday that Japan and China are expected to maintain direct yen-yuan trading and cross-holdings of each other's government bonds despite the simmering bilateral territorial dispute.

«I think it is unlikely to terminate» what he and his Chinese counterpart agreed on earlier this year, Azumi told reporters.

The direct yen-yuan trading, which began on June 1 in Tokyo and Shanghai, is aimed at facilitating trade settlements between the two countries and lowering currency transaction costs.

Azumi said Beijing should crack down on violent anti-Japanese protests in China that have damaged Japanese factories and retail stores. The two countries should «calmly» defuse the long-standing row over small islands, he said.

под элементами глобальной стратегии я имею в виду теорию хаоса, на эту тему много есть литературы, но помню как мне понравились идеи по этой теории которые высказывал Стивен Манн. Очень похоже.
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