Доллар Австралии: Казначейство Австралии рассматривает возможности для ослабления курса.

Подтверждаются предположения о том, что правительство и Резервный Банк Австралии начинают рассматривать варианты для ограничения дальнейшего укрепления курса австралийского доллара. После заявления Центробанка о рисках, которые создает для экономики сильный курс национальной валюты, аналогичные комментарии последовали от Казначейства страны. На официальном сайте Казначейства размещен свежий доклад  о состоянии экономики и перспективах развития в условиях нестабильности на внешних рынка. В отдельном  разделе под названием  “Understanding the appreciation of the Australian dollar and its policy implications” анализируются последствия укрепления местной валюты  и сделаны выводы о необходимости остановить текущее укрепление в том числе за счет изменения процентных ставок. 

Доклад Казначейства Австралии
Australian Treasury issues report entitled “Understanding the appreciation of the Australian dollar and its policy implications” on its website. * “Notwithstanding the differences in these approaches, including the measure of the exchange rate and the date at which the estimations were performed, comparing the equilibrium values they produce with the prevailing exchange rate suggests, unsurprisingly, that the AUD is overvalued compared to its medium-to-long run equilibrium value.” * Report: “While the AUD is now well above its post-float average, it appears to be at a level consistent with what might be expected, given the changes in its fundamental determinants.” * “Calls for Australia to shift away from its long-standing policy approach and take action directed at lowering the value of the AUD are misplaced,” report says. “Rather than helping the economy, the available options are likely to be either ineffective or result in greater macroeconomic instability.”


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В  свежем отчете  от агентства Standard & Poor's Ratings под названием«China Has Plenty Of Powder Left In Its Stimulus Keg.» посвященном ситуации в экономике Китая, говорится о том, что в этом году не стоит ждать никаких серьезных действий местного правительства по стимулированию. Однако такие действия будут возможны в будущем, если начнут расти риски более серьезного спада в экономике Китая. В таком случае власти могут выделить существенные денежные ресурсы для стимулирования внутреннего спроса и активизации местной промышленности.

Доклад S&P по Китаю
The following is the text of a release from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Wednesday: «China hasn't introduced another large stimulus program this year despite growing economic tensions, but it remains an option if conditions sharply deteriorate. That's according to a report that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services released today, titled „China Has Plenty Of Powder Left In Its Stimulus Keg.“ „The government retains significant capacity to support economic growth, if needed, partly because of China's sizable financial assets,“ said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kim Eng Tan. Standard & Poor's says the government may be prepared to pump money into the economy if the currently stable unemployment rate rises steeply. In such a scenario, the cost of losing more inflation credibility would likely be a secondary consideration in a period of top leadership changes. Even in a country fabled for far-sighted policymakers, near-term social stability is valued much more than long-term policy credibility. „We still expect real economic growth of 8.2% in 2013. But in 2012, growth could slow to about 8%, compared with average growth of 9.6% for the past few years,“ said Mr. Tan. The report addresses the reasons why some observers believe China doesn't have the capacity to begin a new round of economic stimuli. It also highlights the likely inefficiencies of such a program and inflationary expectations. »

Глава Резервного Банка Австралии считает, что трудно пока бороться с укреплением австралийского доллара, так как эта валюта является защитным активом и он сам думает, что если станут усиливаться мировые риски, доллар Австралии может перестать укрепляться сам собой, так как эта валюта зависит в том числе и от стоимости ресурсов, а если риски в мире уйдут, то доллар Австралии тоже перестанет укрепляться, так как уже не будет спроса на защитные активы. 

ЦБ Австралии об австралийском долларе
Safe-haven demand for the Australian dollar is observed in the market some of the time and it is not inconceivable that that the currency would rise when there is general retreat in global risk sentiment, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said Friday. Stevens, however, quickly added that he didn't think it was likely that the Australian dollar would rise in a risk-off sentiment scenario, which would occur if things really worsened in Europe. But should the currency still appreciate it would be a deviation from the past and the «implication for the economy would be different,» Stevens said. Stevens was speaking in his twice-yearly appearance before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra. Later Stevens said the Australian dollar was a bit on the high side but it was not dramatically high, and not around $0.20 (20 cents) higher. A higher exchange rate didn't mean it was distorted but it could be, Stevens said. He said the Australian dollar is widely regarded as a proxy for global economy because of its huge resources sector but more recently there have been also a lot of official flows into Australia because of its high quality assets. «In general the rate of return on Australian assets is attractive,» Stevens said. On the question of intervention in the foreign-exchange market, Stevens said the RBA hasn't in the past intervened with an «intention to effect the price.» The case for Swiss National Bank to intervene and affect the exchange rate is unique, he said, because their rates are close to zero and the economy is facing deflationary pressures. In the speech earlier, Stevens said that the exchange rate remains «quite high» even after the decline in the terms of trade over the past year. While commodity prices had declined, he said the movements did not seem out of line with what has been observed in the global economy. He also noted that the general rise in risk aversion in global markets has led to a «flight to safety» to Australian government bonds which resulted in their yields falling to record low levels. Stevens said that the RBA's forecast is for growth in Australia to be close to trend and inflation consistent with the target but the central bank remains prepared to respond to significant deviations from this forecast. «We remain prepared to respond to significant deviations from the central outlook, to the extent that it is prudent and possible to do so, within the framework that aims to foster sustainable growth and inflation at 2% to 3% over time,» Stevens said
ВВП Австралии во II квартала вырос на 0.3%, за год на 3.7%. 

The pace of growth in the Australian economy slowed in the second quarter after strong growth in the first quarter. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Wednesday showed the economy grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter compared with a 1.4% rise in the first quarter. The first quarter data was revised higher from initially published 1.3% growth. The outcome was less than MNI median consensus which was for 0.7% growth. This number was already lower than the median of initial estimates, which was for 0.8% growth. On an annual basis, the economy grew 3.7%, which was in line with the MNI median consensus. The main contributors to expenditure on GDP were household final consumption expenditure (0.3 percentage points) general government final consumption expenditure (0.3 points), and net exports (0.3 points). Inventories detracted 0.3 points from GDP growth, the ABS said. In terms of industry, the main contributors to GDP were wholesale trade (up 3.0%), transport (up 2.6%) and professional, scientific and technical services (up 1.9%) with each industry contributing 0.1 percentage points to the increase in GDP, ABS said. Mining made a negative contribution to GDP during the quarter, down 1.2% or detracting 0.1 point form GDP. Manufacturing was another disappointment, down 1.4% and taking 0.1 point from GDP. Household final consumption expenditure increased 0.6% with the main contributors being purchase of vehicles (0.3 points), rent and other dwelling services (0.1 points), health (0.1 points) and furnishings and household equipment (0.1 points). Government final consumption expenditure increased 1.6%, ABS said… Gross fixed capital formation increased 1.0% in the second quarter compared with a 2.9% rise in the first quarter. Total private gross fixed capital formation increased 0.6%, reflecting a rise in total non-dwelling construction (up 2.1%). This was offset by falls in total dwellings (down 1.7%) and total machinery and equipment (down 0.2%). Public gross fixed capital formation increased 2.8%, the ABS said.

По итогам августа был зафиксирован рекордный уровень посещений иностранцами Австралии в рамках деловых поездок и туризма. В первую очередь объем посещений вырос за счет азиатских стран, в частности Китая.

Australia attracted a record number of tourists in August as a flood of visitors from China defied the high local dollar, helping support spending and employment in a country fretting about a cool down in its mining boom.

Government data out on Tuesday showed short-term visitor arrivals jumped 3.7 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted 514,100, passing the previous high set in June. For the year to August arrivals topped 6 million for the first time, led by a near 16 percent increase in Chinese visitors to 607,900.

The growth came despite an historically high local currency. «While some commentators debate whether the mining boom is over, in the background China is becoming more and more important to Australia in a host of ways,» said Craig James, chief economist at CommSec.

«This is still the early days of Chinese urbanisation and industrialisation so the growth opportunities in coming years are huge.» Visitor arrivals from Japan were up 7.5 percent for the year to August, while there were 17.5 percent more tourists from Singapore and 5.5 percent more from Indonesia.

Australia was also attracting more migrants, with permanent settlers up by 159,580 in the year to August to hit a 39-month peak. Net permanent and long-term arrivals were equally as strong at 290,980 for the year.

Григорий А как ещё связаны Китай и австралия кроме туризма?
австралия поставщик руды в китай, а китай крупнейший прямой инвестор в австралии. они связаны плотно, почти что братья и сестры))
хотя конечно австралия и без китая в итоге проживет. хотя с китайцами им получше)

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's October board meeting provided no clue on the future direction of the cash rate with the central bank stating that the cash rate was cut to provide additional support to demand over the period ahead.

«Members concluded that the current assessment of the inflation outlook provided scope to adjust policy in response to the softer growth outlook.

Therefore, at this meeting the board judged that it was appropriate for the stance of monetary policy to be a little more accommodative, thereby providing some additional support to demand over the period ahead,» the RBA said in the minutes of the October 2 board meeting released Tuesday.

The RBA said its forecasts still anticipate mining investment making a significant contribution to growth in the coming quarters but recent information suggested growth may be a bit weaker than expectd.

«Looking ahead, the forecast for GDP still anticipated mining investment making a significant contribution to growth in the coming quarters, with non-resource investment remaining weak, some possibility of an increase in dwelling investment, consumption growing broadly in line with incomes, and public demand subtracting from growth,» the RBA said.

«Nonetheless, the information that had become available suggested there was an increased likelihood of growth over the coming year being somewhat weaker than earlier forecast,» the RBA said.

Members discussed the implications of the revised outlook for the labor market and tax receipts, the minutes said. Both the markets and economists were looking to the minutes to validate their expectation of further cash rate cuts by the RBA.

A majority of economists expect a follow-up 25 basis points cut in November while the market is pricing around 80% chance of such a move.

The minutes didn't contain much discussion on the Australian dollar, merely repeating what the RBA has said before, that the currency remained high by historical standard, notwithstanding the fall in commodity prices and weaker global and domestic outlook.

One significant point was renewed discussion on funding costs of banks, with members noting that deposits account for 53% of major banks' funding and will likely remain the key driver of funding costs in the near term.

Indeed, the RBA's October 2 cash rate cut of 25 basis points resulted in banks' passing on an average 20 basis points of that cut. On the labor market, the RBA said it had become somewhat softer in recent month but «this was not inconsistent with earlier forecasts for the economy.»

Softer demand had been particularly pronounced in the construction industry with employment there falling from relatively high levels, the RBA said.

The RBA also noted that mining employment has recorded a modest fall in recent months for the first time since the middle of 2009. But labor productivity across the economy as a whole had increased at an above-average pace over the past year, the RBA said.

There wasn't much discussion on inflation but the RBA usually refrains from making comments about inflation ahead of new data. The third quarter inflation data is due on October 24.

On commodity prices, the RBA noted that a weaker outlook for global growth has resulted in a decline in bulk commodity prices though some had partically retraced the sharp falls that occured over July and August.

Members, however, agreed it was too soon to see much, if any, of the effect of recent developments in the bulk commodity markets on domestic economic activity, the RBA said.

But the fall in commodity prices had resulted in the terms of trade falling further in the third quarter to be more than 10% below their peak a year earlier, the RBA said.

On housing, the RBA said weak dwelling investment had been at odds with the fundamentals for housing demand but noted that in some areas developers had difficulties selling new dwellings given their prices relative to existing dwellings.

Overall, sentiment in the housing market had improved due to increase in dwelling prices in recent months, the RBA said.

Комментарии зампреда РБА Дейбелла о монетарной политике были истолкованы рынков в качестве намека на возможное понижение учетной ставки. Дейбелл заявил о том, что учитывая высокий курс австралийского доллара потенциал для снижения ставок остается довольно обширным и регулятор несомненно воспользуется возможностью понизить учетную ставку если сочтет этот шаг необходимым. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia retains the scope to cut the cash rate further if needed, including to offset the dampening effect of a high Australian dollar, Assistant Governor Guy Debelle said Tuesday. Debelle made the comments in a speech titled «The Reserve Bank's Operations in Financial Markets» which is being presented to the University of Adelaide Business School's UniBreakfast in Adelaide.

«We still obviously retain scope to lower interest rates further, should the need arise, including to counterbalance the pressures of an elevated exchange rate,» Debelle said. Debelle added that to date, the RBA has been able to counter the effects of the higher Australian dollar with lower interest rates, but cautioned that low rate levels to offset the effects of the higher exchange rate can cause problems.

«It can generate excess credit expansion or asset price inflation or imbalances elsewhere in the economy. The current experience of Canada, Hong Kong and Switzerland is salient in this respect,» Debelle said. While «macroprudential» policy tools can be used to alleviate such problems, there are large uncertainties about how effective such tools really are, he said.

Debelle said the cash rate still has the largest influence over lending and deposit rates, even if the relationship is not exact. The RBA will be publishing a detailed analysis of developments in banks' funding costs and lending rates in the next RBA Bulletin which is released on 21 March, he said.

Earlier, talking about RBA's foreign-exchange transactions, Debelle said the RBA had in the second half of last year sold Australian dollars directly to its foreign customers seeking to invest in these dollars. But after selling them, the RBA didn't buy them back in the market or sell the foreign-currency in the market.

«With the Australian dollar trading at the high end of our assessment of fair valuation at the time (based on determinants such as the terms of trade, domestic economic and financial conditions), we decided on this occasion it would be appropriate to retain the foreign exchange in our reserves portfolio rather than sell it,» Debelle said.

«That is, we thought the foreign exchange was on the cheap side of fair value,» he said. «Moreover, if we had sold the foreign exchange in the market, we would have been buying back Australian dollars putting further upward pressure on the A$ at the margin, which we didn't think was appropriate given our assessment was that the currency was already somewhat on the high side,» Debelle said.

Григорий но ведь это ещё не рецесия могут ещё квартал подождать а как насчёт капитальных затрат в австралии?
Данные по капитальным расходам австралийского добывающего сектора и промышленных компаний. Опубликованные цифры оказались чуть лучше прогнозных оценок.

28 июня 2013 МВФ опубликует ежеквартальные данные о структуре официальных валютных резервов (COFER) с расширенным диапазоном валют. Впервые будут выделены из категории «другие» данные по AUD и CAD.
Оно конечно похвально что пообещали и сделали, и даже в обещанные сроки уложились =) Однако расклад резервов по Китаю (крупнейшему держателю резервов) в этот отчет не входят. А зная интересы Китая в Австралии ( а они там внушительные) картинка получится коцаная. Российский ЦБ ещё пару лет назад говорил о покупке оззи и луни… ну и естессно покупал. ЦБ других стран тоже покупали конечно же… Но не всем они ( оззи и луни) нужны в резервах, поскольку не все страны ведут торговую деятельность с Австралией и Канадой. Гособлигации конечно по доходности интересны Центробанкам и  в этом смысле на австралийском долговом рынке — тренд =) Но всё когда то кончается или становится невыгодным =)

В общем главную фишку — в виде официальной структуры валютных резервов Китая и достаточно большого количества стран с развивающейся экономикой и в обязательном порядке покупающих оззи — COFER не покажет.
Резервный Банк Австралии готов рассмотреть в случае необходимости возможность проведения валютных интервенций для ослабления курса австралийского доллара

The Reserve Bank remains open-minded on intervening in the foreign-exchange market if it is convinced the move is effective and useful, and reinforces fundamentals, Governor Glenn Stevens said Thursday. Stevens made the comments in a speech at the annual dinner of the Australian Business Economists on the topic «The Australian Dollar: Thirty Years of Floating.» He provided one of the clearest hints the RBA may be willing to consider intervention to push the Australian dollar lower, saying the step remains part of the toolkit and could be used in the right circumstances. «Overall, in this episode so far, the bank has not been convinced that large-scale intervention clearly passed the test of effectiveness versus cost. But that doesn't mean we will always eschew intervention. In fact we remain open-minded on the issue,» Stevens said. «Our position has long been, and remains, that foreign exchange intervention can, judiciously used in the right circumstances, be effective and useful. It can't make up for weaknesses in other policy areas and to be effective it has to reinforce fundamentals, not work against them. Subject to those conditions, it remains part of the toolkit,» he added. On a fundamental basis, Stevens suggested the exchange rate is currently misaligned but the extent isn't clear. He said «In the end it is not possible to come to a definitive assessment on the extent of currency misalignment at the moment, on the basis of standard metrics (and having regard to the statistical imprecision of such metrics).» But «my judgement is that the Australian dollar is currently above levels we would expect to see in the medium term,» he said. Elsewhere, he said, the currency may be above its longer-term equilibrium though it is also possible the mean level itself may not be the right one, and the RBA has taken this into account to evaluate the merits of intervention. «Notwithstanding that, in my view, the Australian dollar is probably above its longer-run equilibrium at present, it is far from clear that we can assume that the mean level we saw in the 1980s to the early 2000s will be the relevant one in the future,» Stevens said. Talking about costs associated with intervention, Stevens said those who argue for intervention either don't take costs into account or assume it is entirely costless. «That can't be assumed and the idea should be considered in a cost-benefit setting,» he said. Stevens said assessing the exchange rate's level is difficult and data show the past relationship between the currency and terms of trade have continued to hold. But he added that it was possible that a large and prolonged rise in the exchange rate could have effects beyond what was seen in the past, and the RBA recognizes this. «Nothing looks very unusual right at the moment,» he said referring to the exchange rate-terms of trade graph. «But this relationship is estimated over a period in which the changes were generally cyclical.» «It is at least conceivable that a large and persistent rise in the exchange rate may have effects on the economy beyond those discernible from the experience of the past thirty years, if previous rises in the exchange rate were not long-lived enough to cause significant structural change. This is a possibility the Reserve Bank has noted in the past couple of years,» Stevens said. Assessing the exchange rate's recent behaviour is complicated by the fact that is driven by the «search for yield» effect of extraordinary monetary policies in major economies of the U.S., Japan, and the euro zone, and «diversification» effect due to Australia's own AAA sovereign rating, Stevens said. But such «flows have surely been important at times, though not necessarily lately,» Stevens said, pointing to data that show foreign holdings of Australian government debt stopped rising in the middle of last year and earlier flows into Australian bank obligations have generally continued to reverse over that time. He also pointed to the «most obvious capital inflows in the past couple of years have been in the form of direct investment into the mining sector.»

ого доллара. 

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