Агентство Moody's первым из рейтинговых компаний понижает кредитный статус правительства Британии на одну ступень с "ААА" до "АА1"

Событие ожидаемое, рынок предвкушал обозначенное событие начиная аж с осени прошлого года. Теперь можно сказать — свершилось. Рейтинг понижен на 1 ступень с «ААА» но со стабильным прогнозом, что подразумевает неизменность текущего нового рейтинга как минимум в течении всего нынешнего года. Последствия после снижения рейтинга вряд ли окажутся драматичными тем более, что правительство Британии с пониманием отнеслось к такому решению без проявления обычной для таких случаев истерики. 

The following is the full text of the Moody's statement: Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.

The key interrelated drivers of today's action are: 1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;

2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;

3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.

At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.

The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory.

Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.

In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process.

Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower — and believes that it will likely remain so — compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.

The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected rise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility — which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total — as announced in November 2012. More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt — a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis — to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain. Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action — namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks.

For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy. In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.

The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself — the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation.

It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN As reflected by the stable rating outlook, Moody's does not anticipate any movement in the rating over the next 12-18 months. However, downward pressure on the rating could arise if government policies were unable to stabilise and begin to ease the UK's debt burden during the multi-year fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's could also downgrade the UK's government debt rating further in the event of an additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Conversely, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on the UK's rating to positive, and ultimately upgrading the rating back to Aaa, in the event of much more rapid economic growth and debt-to-GDP reduction than Moody's is currently anticipating.

Комментарии (5)

свернуть / развернуть
Григорий а в какой валюте долг у Великобритании?
Англия будет в китае формировать долговой рынок и облигации под названием консоль )))
Банк Англии не будет повышать процентные ставки пока уровень безработицы не опустится до уровня в 7%.

The Bank of England plans to keep interest rates at a record low until unemployment falls to 7 percent
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) — The Bank of England plans to keep interest rates at a record low until unemployment falls to 7 percent — something unlikely for another three years — in a major new departure for British monetary policy. Barely a month after Canadian Mark Carney took over from the long-serving Mervyn King as BoE governor, the central bank said on Wednesday that it would keep interest rates at 0.5 percent unless inflation threatened to get out of control or there was a danger to financial stability. «Until the margin of slack within the economy has narrowed significantly, it will be appropriate to maintain the current exceptionally stimulative stance of monetary policy,» the BoE said. BoE policymakers said they stood ready to buy more government bonds if additional stimulus was needed and would not reverse existing purchases while unemployment was too high. The BoE said that growth was likely to be «weak by historical standards», even though economic recovery was «taking hold» and inflation was forecast to stay above its 2 percent target until the second half of 2015 based on market rate expectations. «Attempting to return inflation to the target too quickly risks prolonging the period over which the nation's resources are underutilised,» the central bank said. A growing number of major central banks are providing so-called forward guidance to help nurse their economies back to health after the damage of the financial crisis. For the BoE, the challenge is to hold off a premature rise in British borrowing costs at a time when signs of economic recovery at home and the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to phase out stimulus are already starting to push up market interest rates. Last month the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee took a step towards guidance by saying that a rise in British government bond yields was not justified by economic fundamentals, and it reiterated that point on Wednesday. Markets already did not expect the BoE to start to raise interest rates until late 2015 at the earliest. The BoE said Britain's economy had strengthened over the past three months. But output still remains more than 3 percent below its pre-crisis peak, a much weaker recovery than in the United States or Germany. The BoE now forecasts that the economy will grow 0.6 percent during the current quarter — the same as between April and June, and that growth will reach an annual rate of 2.6 percent in two years' time, compared with 2.2 percent forecast three months ago, assuming interest rates stay on hold. Unemployment is forecast to fall only slowly from its current level of 7.8 percent of the workforce, with the central bank expecting it to average 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2016, the end of its forecast horizon. This implies that the BoE expects to keep interest rates unchanged until at least that time, unless one of three conditions is breached before then. The BoE will consider raising interest rates if their low level poses a threat to financial stability, if the public's medium-term inflation expectations rise dangerously high or if it forecasts that inflation in 18-24 months will be at 2.5 percent or higher. The BoE said that if these thresholds or the 7 percent unemployment rate are reached, the MPC would consider the case for interest rate rises on a month-by-month basis. «There is therefore no presumption that breaching any of these knockouts would lead to an immediate increase in Bank Rate or sale of assets,» it said. Inflation is forecast to average 2.9 percent in the last three months of this year — close to its current level and a lower peak than previously thought — and then to fall roughly as predicted three months ago. Finance minister George Osborne named Carney in November to succeed King, impressed by the Canadian's reputation for innovative thinking and applying forward guidance while he led Canada's central bank. Carney has previously stressed the importance of reassuring ordinary people and businesses that their debt costs are not going to rise any time soon in order to give them more confidence about spending which would help the economy.

Carney said forward guidance did not mean the BoE was promising to keep rates low for a particular period of time.
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