Основные событийные потоки на финансовых рынках в течении недели с 15 по 20 сентября 2013 г.


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События связанные с Федрезервом

 

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акростатистика

 


ЕВРОПА

 


Размещения долговых бумаг в Европе



 


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Текст письма Саммерса Обаме с обоснованием снятия своей кандидатуры на пост главы Феда: 

Dear Mr. President,
I am writing to withdraw my name for consideration to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
It has been a privilege to work with you since the beginning of your Administration as you led the nation through a severe recession into a sustained economic recovery built on the policies to promote employment and strengthen the middle class.
This is a complex moment in our national life. I have reluctantly concluded than any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the Administration, or ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing economic recovery.
I look forward to continuing to support your efforts to strengthen our national economy by creating a broad based prosperity and to reform our financial system so that no President ever again faces what you and your economic team faced upon taking office in 2009.
Sincerely Yours,
Lawrence Summers


 Ответный стейтмент от Обамы:

Earlier today, I spoke with Larry Summers and accepted his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Larry was a critical member of my team as we faced down the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and it was in no small part because of his expertise, wisdom, and leadership that we wrestled the economy back to growth and made the kind of progress we are seeing today. I will always be grateful to Larry for his tireless work and service on behalf of his country, and I look forward to continuing to seek his guidance and counsel in the future. 
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последние опросы в Германии перед выборами 

 
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МОСКВА, 16 сен (Рейтер) — Министерство финансов РФ проведет в среду, 18 сентября, два аукциона облигаций федеральных займов совокупным объемом 10,0 миллиарда рублей, с погашением в августе 2023 года и январе 2028 года, в том числе — и новый 10-летний выпуск, серии 26215, следует из сообщения министерства.
По прогнозам аналитиков, Минфин вполне мог бы предложить на аукционе долгосрочные бумаги в связи с нормализацией ситуации на рынке.
Объем эмиссии 15-летней ОФЗ 26212 — 20 миллиардов рублей, а новой, 10-летней, ОФЗ 26215 — 10 миллиардов рублей.
В соответствии с данными в терминале Рейтер на 17.10 МСК 212-й выпуск котировался в интервале доходности 7,67-7,65 процента годовых, а ближайший по срочности к новой ОФЗ 211-й выпуск, с погашением в январе 2023 года — в интервале 7,29-7,26 процента годовых.
По результатам предыдущего аукциона 24 апреля доходность ОФЗ 26212 составляла 7,02 процента годовых.
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В принципе, есть определенные противоречия между прогнозами Феда и желаниями самого Феда по отношению к рынкам. 




 
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вообще интересно. если 7 летние  валютные бумаги Армении с рейтингом на уровне «мусора» берут под 6.25% и был неплохой переспрос. то получается что россия 30 торгуется тогда вообще чуть ли не задарма)) в таком варианте по россии 30 спрэд к трежерис должен сократиться до 1.00 % как мнимиум

The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep its stimulus program at full speed is a green light for emerging-market borrowers to sell bonds. First out of the blocks was Armenia, which pressed ahead with a planned debut dollar-bond sale.


Armenia’s bond, for one, attracted robust demand. Its $750 million seven-year bond attracted some $3.25 billion in orders and priced at a yield of 6.25%–a favorable rate for a debut junk-rated borrower compared to, for example, investment-grade Russia, whose 10-year dollar bond sold earlier this month priced at a yield of 5.112%.

“We are definitely looking to buy Armenia. We like the credit and we think it comes at a good price. Debt metrics are good, they have a cheap deal for importing gas with Russia, stable politics, and we like the growth story,” said Viktor Szabo, fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, which managed $318 billion at the end of June. 
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какая то непонятная истерика среди леминга по поводу того, что феды не стали куе «сужать»)) последние опросы на сайте фрб нью-йорка вовсе не показывали 100% вероятность ожиданий по «сужению» куе судя по ответам от первичных диллеров. и в этом плане фед вполне был наравне с ожиданиями рынка а вовсе не «шокрировал» этот самый рынок.

 по  динамике денежных потоков на прошлой и этой неделе (до заседания феда)   крупный капитал также особо не рассчитывал на какие то сильные изменения в риторике феда или намеков на агрессивность в «сужении» куе. в америке был просто эпический спрос корпоративные облигации и огромное (даже по нынешним меркам) количество свободного баблоса в системе. схожая обстановка была и в европе, где местные банки несмотря на вроде бы сильные ожидания сворачивания куе и вроде бы как неопределенности в будущей политике феда все равно активно погашали кредиты от ецб. сегодняшние цифры по погашениям кредитов ltro формировались в прошлую пятницу то есть еще за почти неделю до заседания феда и тем не менее банки все равно решили погасить почти 8 ярдов евро от тех кредитов. 
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активненько так евробанки баблос погашают ецб такими темпами скоро от ltro ничего не останется)) 

The European Central Bank said Friday that E7.91 billion
will be repaid this coming Wednesday by banks that participated in the ECB's two
three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs).
 
     A total of 9 banks have told their respective national central banks they
intend to repay funds from the LTRO allotments, the ECB added.
 
     Banks have the opportunity to repay additional LTRO funds each week, on a
day that coincides with the settlement date of a main refinancing operation.
Counterparties must inform their respective national central bank, giving one
week's notice of the amount they wish to repay.
 
     The ECB releases details of the repayments on the last business day of each
week.
 
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Интересно конечно. Вроде никто из крупных мировых аллюминиевых компаний не жалуется на свое «житие-бытие» только Русал постоянно ноет и ноет. На управленческий аппарат у этой конторы идет около 15% всех костов компании не проще ли сократить аппарат и таким образом снять часть больших костов с компании, чтобы не жаловаться) 


РУСАЛ ПРЕДЛАГАЕТ НАЧАТЬ МАСШТАБНОЕ СОКРАЩЕНИЕ ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗ-ВА АЛЛЮМИНИЯ В МИРЕ, ЧТОБЫ ПОВЫСИТЬ ЦЕНЫ
GENEVA—The world’s largest aluminum producer has laid bare the woeful state of the market for the industrial metal, in which prices are being crushed by tremendous oversupply.


In an interview, United Co. Rusal First Deputy CEO Vladislav Soloviev said more production cuts are needed at a time when prices are making 40% of global output unsustainable. “It is necessary to do this, otherwise you close everything. It is the only way to survive,” Mr. Soloviev said.


Global aluminum supply outstripped demand by 773,000 metric tons in the first seven months of this year, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. In 2012, the aluminum market recorded a surplus of 506,000 tons.


With vast inventories and uncertain demand, Aluminum prices are falling—down 12% since the start of 2013—and the industry is being forced to focus on costs to improve margins.


In May U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. said it would consider cutting 11% of its smelting capacity; and earlier this month GlencoreXstrata said it would slash spending and shelve projects in a bid to support prices and remain profitable.


Rusal has already shut 350,000 tons of production capacity, and said this week that it is reviewing three more operations, which combined amount to over 300,000 tons of production.


Rusal has said the price would have to rise to near $2,400 a ton in order to restart some of its closed capacity. Thursday, LME 3-month aluminum traded around $1,820 a ton.



To be sure, the Federal Reserve’s decision to continue its economic stimulus program and indications of economic revival in OECD economies should sustain demand at least in the near term. Stockpiles of copper held in warehouses certified by the London Metal Exchange have declined 16% since late June’s ten-year high, a sign of increased demand from manufacturers, and Chinese demand appears resilient. But stocks of aluminum in those warehouses have fallen just 1%.



Mr. Soloviev said the aluminum industry should cut production and stop all new projects. “Around 40% of metal is not profitable at current prices,” he said. Whether or not smelting companies in China choose to scale back capacity will be key. The country currently accounts for around half of global production, and has recently swung to being a net exporter, according to the WBMS.



Qin Junman, vice president of China Nonferrous Metal Industry’s Foreign Engineering and Construction Company Co. Ltd, said this week that about 2.7 million tons a year of smelting capacity is currently estimated to be under construction in China’s Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and Inner Mongolia provinces. “China in particular should stop production but local governments subsidize operations for employment reasons,” said Mr. Soloviev.



Patricia Mohr, Bank of Nova Scotia’s vice president of economics and commodity market specialist, said this week at a conference hosted by Metal Bulletin in Geneva that a reduction in Chinese capacity was unlikely. “China can’t be self-sufficient in copper, because it doesn’t have the geology, but aluminum is a more manufactured metal.” she said.


“The nature of their basic policy is one to continue to move ahead on aluminum expansion. Some of the new mills are on bottom of their cost curve, operating at near $1,500 a ton, so they can compete, and they will.”
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не тот бизнес видимо в свое время выбрал товарищ дерпаска) 

 
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Майкрсофт требует, чтобы против Google были выдвинуты обвинения в рамках антимонопольного законодательства 


Макрософт против Гугл
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer thinks that Google is a monopoly and that the government should step in and do something about it. So he said on Thursday at Microsoft's analyst conference in Bellevue, Wash. He was discussing how so few companies have grown really huge by offering cloud services to consumers, even though there are a few up-and-comers like Facebook. Of all the markets Microsoft plays in, and it pretty much hits them all (devices, software, cloud for consumers and the enterprise), Ballmer says that making money in consumer cloud services is the toughest. «Google does it. They have, dare I say, a monopoly. We are the only company on the planet still trying to compete with it,» he said. And Microsoft is pressuring the authorities to investigate Google when it comes to search: This [search] is a scale game because the market for advertising is auction-based economics. If we have exactly the same quality of algorithms but less scale in search advertising we get less revenue per search than Google which means they have more money to pay for distribution on Samsung or Apple. Rumor is they pay each $1 to $3 billion a year for distributing their search products. We have to generate volume to step up. I believe that Google's practices are worthy of discussion with competition authority. And we have certainly discuss them with competition authorities. I don't think their practices are getting less merit tortuous of discussion. We highlighted some bad practices in advertising and discussions with regulators, the bundling they're doing with You Tube and Google Maps. I think they need pressure from competition. I think they need pressure in the marketplace with product, with investment, with scale. How do we get scale? On our own devices or on somebody with whom we're closely aligned.
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