Основные событийные потоки на финансовых рынках в течении сентября-октября (Хроника бюджетного кризиса в Америке)


Макростатистика по Америке: 

 


Индекс стоимости жилья 



Индекс уверенности потребителей




Оценка ВВП 




Кол-во недельных обращений за пособиями






Индекс расходов и доходов потребителей






Выступления представителей Феда

 


Европейские события 





Азиатские события

 

Комментарии (87)

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первые данные о результатах голосования на парламентских выборах в Германии. 

 
Two exit polls released Sunday right after the close of
polling booths in Germany showed Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right
CDU/CSU-FDP coalition losing its majority to continue governing.
 
     Both polls — conducted by Germany's public television stations ARD and ZDF
— showed the FDP below the threshold of 5% to be represented in parliament.
 
     The ARD exit poll sees the CDU/CSU at 42.0%, the ZDF puts them at 42.5%.
The FDP is credited with 4.7% (ARD) and 4.5% (ZDF).
 
     The center-left SPD is seen at 26.0% (ARD) and 26.5% (ZDF). Both polls puts
the ecologist Greens at 8.0% and the post-communist Left party at 8.5%.
 
     The euro sceptic AfD party is credited with 4.9% (ARD) and 4.8% (ZDF).
 
     Given that the mainstream parties have excluded a coalition either with the
Left party or the AfD, the most likely scenario for the moment is a grand
coalition government of Merkel's conservatives with the Social Democrats. Both
the CDU/CSU and the Greens have repeatedly rejected the idea of governing
together.
 
     Merkel and and her SPD-challenger Peer Steinbrueck have said they do not
rule out the eventuality of another grand coalition government. Between 2005 and
2009 the CDU/CSU and the SPD already governed together and steered the country
quite successfully through the global financial turmoil.
 
     A grand coalition government would likely soften somewhat Germany's tough
austerity stance in the Eurozone crisis. The Social Democrats advocate for more
growth-stimulating policies in Germany and the Eurozone.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Latest ARD projection puts CDU/CSU on 42.5%, ahead of SPD/Green/Linke on 41.6%
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СОЦИАЛ-ДЕМОКРАТЫ ГЕРМАНИИ ГОТОВЫ УЧАСТВОВАТЬ В ПРАВИТЕЛЬТСТВЕ ШИРОКОЙ КОАЛИЦИИ
Germany's largest opposition party, the center-left SPD, raised the price for entering into a so-called grand coalition government with Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU bloc Monday. SPD party secretary general Andrea Nahles told ARD public television that «there is no automatism at all for a grand coalition.» The SPD will take all its time before deciding if it wants to start coalition talks with the conservatives, she stressed. Other leading Social Democrats spread the same message. Merkel's CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government lost its majority in Sunday's national elections. The CDU/CSU won 41.5% of votes. Yet, with only 4.8% of votes the free market-orientated FDP stayed below the 5% threshold necessary for being represented in parliament. The SPD scored 25.7%, the ecologist Greens 8.4% and the post communist Left party 8.6%. The result translates into 311 seats in parliament for the CDU/CSU, 192 for the SPD, 63 for the Greens and 64 for the Left. Given that the mainstream parties have excluded a coalition with the Left party, the most likely scenario still remains a grand coalition government. The Greens again signalled on Monday that the political differences with the CDU/CSU are too large for forming a coalition. Between 2005 and 2009 the CDU/CSU and the SPD already governed together and steered the country quite successfully through the global financial turmoil. A grand coalition government would likely soften somewhat Germany's tough austerity stance in the Eurozone crisis. The Social Democrats advocate for more growth-stimulating policies in Germany and the Eurozone. The SPD also strictly rejects a direct recapitalisation of banks in the Eurozone by Europe's permanent rescue fund ESM.


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Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Дадли предлагает не спешить со сворачиванием QE до тех пор пока, не будет устойчивой динамики в секторе труда и темпах роста ВВП.
 
ДАДЛИ ИЗ ФРБ НЬЮ-ЙОРКА О СВОРАЧИВАНИИ QE
The economy has not improved enough for the Federal Reserve to cut back on its easy money policies, an official at the heart of the central bank’s decision making process said Monday. “The economy still needs the support of a very accommodative monetary policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said in speech. Mr. Dudley, who serves as vice-chair of the policy setting Federal Open Market Committee, said that while the economy is recovering from the recession, the pace of the improvement remains insufficient and clouded by too much uncertainty for the central to begin dialing back its efforts to spur stronger growth. “We have yet to see any meaningful pickup in the economy’s forward momentum,” Mr. Dudley said. Before the Fed cuts back its $85 billion-per-month in bond purchases, “I’d like to see economic news that makes me more confident that we will see continued improvement in the labor market. Then I would feel comfortable that the time had come to cut the pace of asset purchases,” he said. For the Fed to cut the pace of bond buying, which he stressed was not a prelude to raising short-term rates, it would need to see real gains in labor markets. It would also need confidence the recovery’s pace will continue. ” I think we have made progress with respect to these metrics, but have not yet achieved success,” the official said. Mr. Dudley’s comments came from a speech prepared for delivery at an event at Fordham University in New York in the wake of last week’s Fed meeting. The Fed decided at the meeting to continue its bond-buying at current levels, surprising investors that had expected a reduction in the monthly purchases. The program is aimed at lowering long-term interest rates in a bid to drive up growth and lower unemployment. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a news conference after the meeting Wednesday, explained the Fed did not cut its bond buying because of ongoing concerns about the state of growth and hiring. In particular, central bankers were worried about the drag on the economy caused by recent increases in interest rates. Mr. Dudley gave few hints about what would happen next, although he did appear to suggest that given what’s now restraining the economy, it will be hard for the Fed to meet the criteria it needs to trim bond buys in the next few months. Mr. Dudley said Monday, “the economic fundamentals are improving and I expect that the healing process will continue in the coming months and years.” He acknowledged “significant progress” in getting the economy back on track since the recession, adding “I expect the economy to grow a bit faster in 2014.” That said, he worried that data showing improvement in the labor market probably overstate the level of gains. Meanwhile, he said the rise in borrowing costs that has happened over the past few months is a real impediment to growth. Also holding back growth, Mr. Dudley said, is a “unusually high degree” of drag stemming from the government’s fiscal policies. Tax and spending policies are making it just that much harder for the economy to grow, he said, and this situation is likely to continue to affect the outlook for some time to come.


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Драги из ЕЦБ в рамках своего спича перед Европарламентом естественно обозначил опасения регуляторов по поводу активного сокращения объемов избыточной ликвидности в евросистеме и намекнул на возможность запустить дополнительные механизмы, чтобы расширить предложение денег и остановить потенциальный рост коротких кредитных ставок. В частности, речь пошла о возможности «реинкарнации» LTRO 


ДРАГИ О СИТУАЦИИ В ЕВРОПЕ И ПЛАНАХ ЕЦБ
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi opened the door to providing additional long-term loans to banks, suggesting the central bank is willing to consider additional stimulus to keep short-term market interest rates in check and safeguard the bloc’s fragile recovery. “We are ready to use any instrument, including another LTRO [long-term refinancing operation] if needed, to maintain the short-term money markets on the level that is warranted by our assessment of inflation in the medium term,” Mr. Draghi said Monday in testimony to European Parliament.
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Республиканцы предлагают решить проблему по переговорам лимита госдолга и работы правительства за счет временной отмены закона о здравоохранении и соответственных расходах на реализацию этого закона. в обмен на сэкономленные деньги предлагается решить проблему с лимитом и остановкой работы правительства


ПЕРЕГОВОРНЫЙ ПРОЦЕСС В КОНГРЕССЕ ПО ЛИМИТУ ГОСДОЛГА
WASHINGTON—House Republican leaders plan to call for a one-year delay in the new federal health law as a condition of funding the government, lawmakers and aides said Saturday, a proposal that leaves Congress at an impasse over how to avoid a shutdown of federal agencies on Tuesday.



House GOP leaders will also call for eliminating a tax on medical devices imposed by the new health law, aides said. Both measures would be attached to a spending bill that would fund federal agencies until Dec. 15, which leaders hoped to bring to the House for a vote later on Saturday.



House Republican leaders were presenting the proposal to GOP lawmakers Saturday afternoon at a rare weekend meeting in the Capitol. GOP leaders also said they would propose separate legislation ensuring that U.S. troops are paid in the event of a shutdown.



Federal agencies will have to suspend many nonessential services and furlough workers on Tuesday, the start of the new fiscal year, unless lawmakers can come to agreement on a spending plan by midnight Monday, though services and agency functions deemed essential would continue.



The Democratic-led Senate and President Barack Obama say they will reject any effort to limit the new health law frequently called Obamacare, leaving them at a stalemate with House Republicans, who are being pushed by their most conservative members to use the budget deadline to limit the reach of the health law.


The House action ensured that more legislative volleying would take place with the Senate and left the path to a resolution unclear. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said Friday that the Senate would accept no changes or amendments to a funding bill it approved on Friday. He scheduled the Senate to return Monday afternoon, hard upon the Monday night deadline. But if the House acts on Saturday and sends its spending bill to the Senate, fresh pressure will fall on him to call the Senate back in session quickly. In his weekly Saturday radio address, Mr. Obama used combative language as he placed the blame on the GOP for the impasse. «Republicans in the House have been more concerned with appeasing an extreme faction of their party than working to pass a budget that creates new jobs or strengthens the middle class,'' he said. „And in the next couple days, these Republicans will have to decide whether to join the Senate and keep the government open, or create a crisis that will hurt people for the sole purpose of advancing their ideological agenda.“ Republicans used their weekly radio address to focus on the next fiscal deadline on the horizon, the need to raise the nation's debt limit in October. Republicans have debated among themselves about which of their policy goals, such as delaying the new health-care law, they should try to attach to the spending bill, and which to link to legislation raising the debt ceiling. „The president is now demanding that we increase the debt limit without engaging in any kind of bipartisan discussions about addressing our spending problem,'' said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.), who gave the address on behalf of Republicans. “He wants to take the easy way out—exactly the kind of foolishness that got us here in the first place.» She said the need to raise the debt ceiling presented «a golden opportunity to fix the problems coming out of Washington,'' and that the GOP had proposed pairing the debt ceiling increase with measures approving the Keystone XL pipeline and „fixing'' the tax code and the new health-care law. Uncertainty is growing about whether lawmakers can bridge their differences on a spending bill by Monday night. On Friday, the Democratic-led Senate approved legislation to fund federal agencies for the first six weeks of the fiscal year and to restore money for the health law that the House GOP had stripped from its version of the spending bill. The standoff brings the federal government to the brink of a shutdown with little obvious room for resolution. Unlike in previous showdowns, there have been no major negotiations among congressional leaders or with the White House. Senate Majority Leader Mr. Reid on Friday added to the pressure on the House by adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon, narrowing the window of time for any last-minute legislative volleys between the chambers. Rep. Matt Salmon (R., Ariz.) said that delaying the health-care law for a year made sense, given that major elements of the law have been delayed, such as a provision imposing penalties on large employers who fail to provide insurance for their workers. “We think that's fair and reasonable. Close to half of Obamacare has already been delayed,» Mr. Salmon said. Mr. Salmon also said that House lawmakers had met with tea-party-aligned Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, both Republicans, Thursday night to discuss the House's next steps, and agreed to hold out for a one-year delay of the health law. Some 15 House conservatives met with the two senators at a townhouse on Capitol Hill, according to a Republican lawmaker. The strategy keeps House Republicans on a collision course with Senate Democrats. «We are going to accept nothing as it relates to Obamacare,'' Mr. Reid said after the Senate approved its spending plan. Some House Republicans signaled that they were willing to affix narrower proposals to the spending measure, such as a repeal of the health law's tax on medical-device sales. Some also talked of limiting contributions the federal government would make to lawmakers, their staff and certain White House officials to offset the cost of their premiums under the health law. „It does seem like we're all over the place,“ Rep. Tom Rooney (R., Fla.) said on Friday. So far, financial markets have largely shrugged off the budget standoff. But there are signs of growing concern, especially if there is no agreement to raise the ceiling on U.S. government borrowing by mid-October. In the derivatives market, the cost to insure for a year against a default by the U.S. government has risen sixfold in the past week, and the price of one-month Treasury debt has fallen. But the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has rallied, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is just 2.7% below its record close. Still, if history is any guide, markets may become more tumultuous as the debt-ceiling deadline nears. Mr. Obama in past budget and debt negotiations with Republicans has been accused by fellow Democrats of giving ground too easily. He has adopted a more confrontational style in the current budget battle, including comments on Friday in which he complained of „extremists'' and “shenanigans'' in Congress. Speaking from the White House, Mr. Obama said he wouldn't agree to policy provisions that Republicans plan to attach to budget and debt-related bills, saying new demands would arise in the future with every routine fiscal deadline. „That's why we have to break this cycle … Do not threaten to burn the house down simply because you haven't gotten 100% of your way,'' Mr. Obama said. Responding to Mr. Obama, Brendan Buck, a spokesman for Mr. Boehner, said: “The House will take action that reflects the fundamental fact that Americans don't want a government shutdown, and they don't want the train wreck that is Obamacare.'' If House lawmakers alter the Senate's spending bill, the measure will return to the Senate, where legislation can take days to navigate over procedural hurdles. That is stoking anxiety among some Republicans, who worry that their party will take the greater share of public anger if the government shuts down. „I do believe Republicans will be blamed,“ said Rep. Charles Boustany (R., La.). Some House Republicans are more concerned about the prospect of a shutdown than others, he said. „There are some, I think, who would relish a shutdown. I think that's unfortunate,“ he said. The stopgap spending bill passed the Senate in a 54-44 vote Friday, along strict party lines. Earlier in the day, it cleared a procedural hurdle, 79-19, with 25 Republicans joining the Democratic caucus to end debate on the bill. Friday's Senate votes capped a week of procedural theatrics in the Senate, where a faction of tea-party-backed lawmakers, led by Mr. Cruz, objected to speeding up some of the chamber's proceedings, to the irritation of veteran lawmakers in both parties. Mr. Cruz and his allies said their delaying tactics were intended to call attention to problems with the health law and to try to eliminate money for it.

 
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Все министры представлющие в правительстве Италии коалицию правоцентристов Берлускони подали в отставку. Правительство Италии по сути на грани развала и возросли риски досрочных выборов

All ministers from former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right party resigned from the coalition government on Saturday, said a spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Angelino Alfano.
Berlusconi had earlier told ministers from his People of Freedom (PDL) party to consider stepping down in protest at Prime Minister Enrico Letta's order to freeze all decisions ahead of a confidence vote in parliament.
«The ultimatum sent by the prime minister and his Democratic Party at their government allies… seems inadmissible and unacceptable,» Berlusconi said in a statement on Saturday.
 
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Вполне вменяемый ресеч от агентства McKinsey&Co на тему состояния сырьевого рынка. Основные выводы таковы, что суперцикл по товарным активам далеко не достиг своего пика и тем более не завершен.


Некоторые тезисы из отчета McKinsey
«Многие не устояли перед искушением назвать коррекцию в ценах на энергоносители, металлы и другие сырьевые активы завершением сырьевого “суперцикла”.


Однако мы считаем, что слухи о смерти данного “суперцикла” преувеличены.


Несмотря на определенное снижение, котировки многих активов по-прежнему остаются вблизи тех уровней, которые были показаны в середине 2008 г., перед самым началом глобального финансового кризиса. Сегодня, в период, когда мировая экономика продолжает развиваться заметно ниже своего потенциала, феномен высоких сырьевых цен является явным признаком того, что сырьевой “суперцикл”. продолжается.


Энергоносители За исключением периода 1970-х гг. цены на нефть и газ (в реальном стоимостном выражении) не демонстрировали существенного роста в течение ХХ века. Однако с начала 2000-х гг. они взлетели в среднем на 260%. Основные факторы этого бурного роста – комбинация сильного спроса (в особенности со стороны Китая), а также растущих затрат по добыче энергоносителей. Например, средняя реальная стоимость организации добычи на новом месторождении нефти с 2000 по 2010 гг. выросла в 2 раза. По мере истощения традиционных запасов нефтедобыча постепенно смещается в сторону таких источников сырья, как битумные пески и глубоководные месторождения. Извлечение нефти из подобных природных формаций является более сложной технологически и намного более затратной. Доля глубоководных проектов по добыче нефти в 2009 г. составляла 24% от всех разрабатываемых оффшорных месторождений. Этот показатель вырос на 19% по сравнению с долей глубоководных проектов в 2005 г. При этом, при учете затрат по добыче нефти из глубоководных месторождений, необходимо принимать во внимание тот факт, что затраты на охрану окружающей среды и обеспечение безопасности персонала также заметно растут.

Металлы Цены на металлы (в реальном стоимостном выражении) в течение ХХ века снижались. Однако с начала 2000-х гг. они выросли в среднем на 176%. Многие наблюдатели считают, что данный рост основан исключительно на спросе со стороны развивающихся стран. Однако мы в McKinsey’s Basic Materials Institute считаем, что заметный вклад в рост цен на металлы также внесли растущие геологические сложности при добыче металлов, а также увеличение затрат на их добычу, вызванное ростом стоимости энергоносителей. В частности, в случае с золотом более 45% от увеличения затрат по добыче в период 2001–2011 гг. связано с геологическими факторами (мы полагаем, что этот фактор продолжит оставаться в силе и в дальнейшем). При этом еще 30% от увеличения стоимости добычи золота за тот же период приходится на рост затрат на добычу, связанный с увеличением стоимости энергоносителей, а также таких факторов, как увеличение стоимости горнодобывающего оборудования и повышение квалификации персонала. Наглядный пример геологических сложностей по добыче: в ЮАР горнодобывающие компании сегодня вынуждены рыть тоннели длинной в несколько километров, чтобы извлечь золотоносную руду. Стоимость добычи металлов в целом, скорее всего, продолжит расти из-за роста операционных расходов по текущим горнорудным проектам. При этом, с учетом того, что сегодня рудные запасы шахт истощаются в два раза быстрее, чем растет спрос на металлы, горнодобывающим компаниям приходится разрабатывать новые резервы, которые не только хуже по своему качеству, но и расположены в более труднодоступных месторождениях.


Продовольствие Объем спроса на продовольствие в течение ХХ века неуклонно продолжал расти. Однако благодаря повышению урожайности цены (в реальном стоимостном выражении) снижались. Однако с начала 2000-х гг. они выросли почти на 120%. Причины этой динамики – в замедлении темпов повышения урожайности, увеличении спроса на кормовые культуры, а также в заметном увеличении ущерба сельскохозяйственным культурам от таких природных явлений, как засухи, наводнения, а также в увеличении амплитуды колебания температур. В результате на сегодня объем глобальных запасов продовольствия находится на довольно низких уровнях. При этом ожидается, что в течение следующих 20 лет спрос на продовольствие, в особенности со стороны стран Азии и Африки, вырастет на 35%. Вдобавок к этому увеличение производства биотоплива ведет к повышению спроса на землю под культуры, которые используются для его производства. Кроме того, стоит отметить, что на сегодняшний день качество более 20% пахотных земель в мире заметно ухудшилось из-за таких факторов, как загрязнение и засаливание почвы. Нехватка пахотной земли для увеличения производства продовольствия также осложняется тем, что продолжается процесс массовой миграции людей из сельской местности в города. Расширение территории городов может привести к тому, что площадь пахотных земель будет сокращаться на 2 млн гектаров в год.


»… Мы считаем, что ситуация на сырьевых рынках в ближайшие годы будет определяться соотношением спроса со стороны развивающихся стран, необходимостью увеличивать добычу сырья из более труднодоступных источников, а также такими факторами, как использование инноваций в добыче ресурсов и повышение эффективности использования ресурсов. Новейшие технологии, например сейсмический мониторинг 3D и 4D, могут облегчить задачу получения доступа к ресурсам. Более эффективное использование ресурсов может помочь сократить объем продовольственных отходов и потерь в питьевой воде, речь также идет о повышении энергоэффективности зданий. Однако при этом пока неясно, смогут ли новые технологии и повышение эффективности использования ресурсов смягчить эффект более сложных условий добычи сырья и растущего сырьевого спроса со стороны развивающихся стран.."

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«Цены вырастут еще, потому что выросли уже». Странное объяснение товарищей из McKinsey. Затраты выросли, спрос силен. Почему бы затратам не снизиться — а спросу  - платежеспособному — не упасть?
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ну тут могут быть «сложности» русского перевода (не я переводил) навскидку в оригинале ресеча аргументы вполне нормальные, тем более, что ваши предложения по сокращению затрат очень даже уместны, но было бы хорошо изложить их (ваши предложения) в виде официального предложения для компаний — они много много денюжек заплатят, чтобы узнать каким образом сократить затраты вполовину хотя бы))  в данном случае, ресеч от парней из Маккинси мне показался слишком сложным и обширным, на терминале блумберг все гораздо проще — там есть все данные от сырьевых компаний по своим будущим проектам и затратам на реализацию проектов когда их станут вводить в строй. к примеру по медным месторождениям ввод новых мощностей и работа на них в течении 10 лет оценивается исходя из средней цены меди в 14 тыс баксов за тонну. что интересно, эти же месторождения (которые еще даже не стали разрабатывать) включены со стороны сыерьвых аналитиков в качестве нового предложения на рынке меди, и вполне логично, что получился по их прогнозам до 2020 года на рынке меди неплохой профицит предложения) насколько я понимаю с нефтью тоже самое. 
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Five of the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are in supply surpluses, with production picking up, says Barclays. “Every year since the financial crisis, the momentum of supply growth has strengthened. “Three-year average growth hit a record high in 2012 of almost 7%, with strong supply, not weak demand, driving surpluses.” In particular, the pace of growth in aluminum, lead and copper supply is forecast to continue quickening over the next 12 months, Barclays says. “For aluminum, the increase in capacity in Xinjiang province in China will more than offset closures in higher-cost Henan province, in our view,” the bank says. With copper supply growing rapidly, the bank revised its 2013 supply forecast to 17.5 metric tons. Barclays cautions, however, that there is potential for spending cuts to threaten the longer-term supply outlook. “Longer-term supply growth, however, is at risk from widespread capital investment spending cuts,” Barclays says. “Mining companies are under intense pressure to return more earnings to shareholders, which may force them to cherry pick projects since they will likely not have the finances to realize them all.”
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ну во первых, я не знаю кто такой баркли банк в сырьевом бизнесе (насколько я понимаю банкстеров полностью вытесняют отсюда) а во вторых, я уже сказал, что баркли и прочие так называемые сырьевые аналитики из банков включают в объем предложения еще не введенные в строй фактические проекты. к примеру на сайте блэкрока (которому как раз дали официальное разрешение на торговлю физсырьем) дается несколько иная информация о ситуации с медью через 2 года и потенциальным тотальным дефицитом на рынке олова  к 2015 году (между прочим олово падает в цене). я не сыревой аналитик но достаточно просто посмотреть информацию от производителей металлов (кроме аллюминия и никеля) и там видно насколько рванули дико у них косты.
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если речь идет о ценовых перспективах на ближайшие год-два то наверное можно согласиться, что цены на цветные металлы могут быть ниже. по идее, ничто не помешает той же меди при желании упасть вплоть до 5000 если те же китайцы начнут громить теневой банкинг по схеме товарных кредитов. но я пока совсем не согласен с тем, что сырьевой цикл давно достиг пика и начинается длинный медвежий тренд.если не придумают как порезать сегодняшние косты  и остановить обнуление стоимости фиатных денег, то не будет удивительно если лет еще в этом десятилетии прайсы на ту же медь будут вдвое выше сегодняшних.  
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Вполне с Вами согласен, Григорий. Но ведь до конца десятилетия еще есть время… ) Вот Deutsche Bank еще 20 июня присоединился к аналитикам, которые прогнозируют окончание супер-цикла роста цен на сырье. Зная повадки банкстеров, думаю, что идею об окончании супер-цикла сначала хорошенько вобьют в головы «инвесторов», с соответсвующим воплощением на графиках, а уж потом… )
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Shutdown


Влияние предыдущих shutdown:


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С историей shutdown, влиянием на финансовые рынки, стоимости для экономики США можно ознокомится в обзоре:
Текущая конъюктура финансового рынка (Неделя 30 сентября-4 октября): «Аангард чаще обстреливают сзади, чем спереди»
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О спросе на контейнеровозы и морские грузоперевозки:
Генеральный директор датской судоходной компании Maersk Line сообщил в четверг, что компания переоценила спрос на контейнерные перевозки, оказавшийся гораздо слабее, чем она ожидала два года назад, заказывая новые суда на миллиарды долларов.
Крупнейший в мире оператор контейнерных перевозок теперь рассчитывает на то, что транспортный альянс P3, планируемый совместно с другими европейскими перевозчиками CMA CGM и Mediterranean Shipping Co., позволит сократить расходы и уменьшить число судов, совершающих ключевые рейсы между Европой и Азией, до 250 с 300, заявил в интервью The Wall Street Journal Серен Скоу.
Maersk Line потратила 3,7 млрд долл на покупку 20 крупнейших в мире контейнеровозов. Так называемые суда класса Triple-E, все из которых будут использоваться по направлению Азия-Европа, могут перевозить до 18 000 контейнеров, что примерно на 11% больше по сравнению со второй по величине моделью контейнеровозов. Maersk также отмечает, что они потребляют в среднем на 35% меньше топлива, чем другие суда в линейке компании.
«Огладываясь на начало 2011 года, когда эти суда были заказаны, мы ясно видим, что наши и другие прогнозы по росту не совсем оправдали себя, поэтому рынок в 2015 году будет меньше, чем мы предполагали», – пояснил Скоу.
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небольшой позитифф для русского рынка

*RUSSIA PLANS EUROCLEAR LAUNCH FOR STOCKS, CORP BONDS IN JAN. 
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Нерезиденты инвестировали около 7.3 мллрд. долл. (чистый приток) в акции южнокорейских компаний в течении сентября. Эта сумма является рекордной за всю историю.

Net foreign capital investment into South Korean markets hit a nine-month high in September due to a record surge in stock investments, South Korea's financial regulator said on Wednesday.  
Net foreign investment in South Korean stocks rose by 7.8 trillion Korean won ($7.3 billion), the biggest month jump on records going back to 2001, the Financial Services Commission said in a statement.

Foreigners have been net buyers of local stocks for 25 consecutive sessions up to Tuesday.
This offset 2.4 trillion won worth of net outflows from the bond market, the biggest since August 2012. 
 
Foreign currency dealers suspect local authorities have repeatedly intervened in recent weeks, buying dollars to slow the won's rise.
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2013.10.02 17:25:47Pimco's Gross Sees Low Rates for a 'Long, Long Time' — Market Talk
Pimco's Gross Sees Low Rates for a 'Long, Long Time'
The bond king just reiterated his Fed forecast in his monthly missive: no rate hike before 2016. «If you want to trust one thing and one thing only, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, that fed funds will then stay lower than expected for a long, long time,» writes Pimco's Bill Gross. He notes markets currently expect the policy rate to be 1% higher by late 2015 and 1% higher still by December 2016. His view? «Bet against that.»
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ну по логике размышлений он прав, но против настроений и «мыслей» рыночной массы совладать трудно даже для Феда будет если массы уверуют в то, что будет к примеру инфляция или низкая безработица. Кстати тут можно добавить, что наш Билли переменил мнение про Куе теперь ждет сворачивания) Как я понимаю, Билли легонько свои лонгы купленные в трежерис начинет фиксировать)
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трежаки 10 летние опять пытаются вернуться в диапазон конца июля 2.45-2.35, если пройдут то могут достичь до 2.20-2.15 видимо битва в Конгрессе будет оочень жаркой)
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Григорий, судя по Вашему графику выступлений, мы не скоро увидим Вас на России24?
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ну на той неделе пару наверное появлюсь)
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Такое впечатление, что начинается «черный пиар» против Теслы. За все время производства и эксплуатации таких авто возгорание было только раза три, но на этот раз пожар в авто Тесла после аварии был неплохо «разрекламирован». Якобы пожарные сказали что батареи на Тесле взрываются и горят.

 


ТЕСЛА
SEATTLE (AP) — Flames that engulfed the front end of a Tesla electric car near Seattle also burned in the vehicle's battery pack, making it difficult for firefighters to extinguish the blaze, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press.


In an incident report released under Washington state's public records law, firefighters wrote that they appeared to have Tuesday's fire under control, but the flames reignited. Crews found that water seemed to intensify the fire, so they began using a dry chemical extinguisher. After dismantling the front end of the vehicle and puncturing holes in the battery pack, responders used a circular saw to cut an access hole in the front section in order to apply water to the battery, according to documents. Only then was the fire extinguished.


Shares of Tesla Motors Inc. fell more than 6 percent Wednesday after an Internet video showed flames spewing from the vehicle, which Tesla has touted as the safest car in America. The liquid-cooled 85 kilowatt-hour battery in the Tesla Model S is mounted below the passenger compartment floor and uses lithium-ion chemistry similar to the batteries in laptop computers and mobile phones.


Investors and companies have been particularly sensitive to the batteries' fire risks, especially given issues in recent years involving the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car and Boeing's new 787 plane. Tuesday's incident happened as the Tesla's driver was traveling southbound on state Route 167 through the Seattle suburb of Kent, said Trooper Chris Webb of the Washington State Patrol.


The driver said he believed he had struck some metal debris on the freeway, so he exited the highway and the vehicle became disabled. The driver, who did not return a phone call seeking comment, told authorities he began to smell something burning and then the vehicle caught fire. He was not injured.


Firefighters arrived at the scene within 3 minutes of the first call. It's not clear from records how long the firefighting lasted, but crews remained on scene for 2 1/2 hours.


A trooper who responded was unable to locate any objects on the roadway, but Department of Transportation workers did see some debris in the area. Tesla said the flames were contained to the front of the $70,000 vehicle due to its design and construction.

Company spokeswoman Liz Jarvis-Shean said there were no indications that the fire was caused by anything other than the car crashing into debris. «This was not a spontaneous event,» she said. «Every indication we have at this point is that the fire was a result of the collision and the damage sustained through that.»


Webb said there was too much damage from the fire to see what damage the debris may have caused. The automobile website Jalopnik.com posted photos of the blaze that it says were taken by a reader, along with a video.

 
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Спикер Палаты Бонер вроде как готов на мировую, предлагает решать вопрос с лимитом по госдолгу простым голосованием. 

The New York Times cited a Republican congressman saying that Boehner has indicated he is willing to break the so-called Hastert rule if necessary to pass a debt-limit increase. That rule, named for a former Republican speaker of the House, refers to not bringing to the floor a measure that doesn’t have a majority of Republican votes. The Washington Post had a similar report.
A spokesman for Boehner, Michael Steel, told the Times that Boehner “always, always prefers to pass legislation with a strong Republican majority.”
 
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оценка «заморозки» работы американского правительства с точки зрения количества служащих отправленных в принудительные отпуска. на этом этапе из более 2 млн. работников пока не работает около 40%

 
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Весело у них там в Америке друг друга пугают) Казначейство озвучило свой сценарий развития событий в случае вынужденного техдефолта по обязательствам если Конгресс не расширит лимит
Репорт называется
 Report: The Potential Macroeconomic Effect of Debt Ceiling Brinksmanship

Сценарий Казначейства в случае технического дефолта -перевод на русский
«США никогда не объявляли дефолт по своим обязательствам. Американский доллар и гособлигации США являются одним из ключевых элементов мировой финансовой системы. Дефолт США будет беспрецедентным явлением и имеет все шансы повлечь за собой катастрофические последствия. Активность на кредитных рынках будет заморожена. Стоимость доллара обвалится. Процентные ставки в США резко вырастут. Негативные эффекты будут ощущаться по всему миру, возможно повторение финансового кризиса и рецессии, которые будут похожи на события 2008г, или окажутся еще более серьезными. Политические разногласия, которые приводят к появлению одной только перспективы дефолта, могут иметь разрушительное воздействие на финансовые рынки и благосостояние американских компаний и отдельных американцев. Самым свежим примером подобной ситуации может являться проблема, которая сложилась вокруг потолка по госдолгу США в 2011г. В результате политических разногласий и неспособности законодательных органов принять быстрые решения, произошел ряд негативных для американской экономики явлений. Рейтинг госдолга США был понижен. Резко ухудшились потребительские и деловые настроения, фондовые рынки заметно упали, возросла волатильность и заметно выросли кредитные спреды. В текущей ситуации дополнительным фактором, который необходимо принимать во внимание, является остановка работы правительства, которая произошла 1 октября. В случае, если этот кризис не будет быстро разрешен, рост американской экономики может замедлиться. По ряду оценок, бюджетный кризиса длительностью в одну неделю может замедлить темпы роста ВВП США в четвертом квартале на 0,25%. В случае отсутствия бюджета в течение более долго времени, экономика будет подвержена более серьезный негативным явлениям, вплоть до рецессии. В случае, если участники рынка потеряют уверенность в желании США оплачивать свои долги, процентные ставки по американским гособлигациям заметно вырастут. Это приведет к увеличении стоимости обслуживания госдолга и еще больше осложнит и без того непростое фискальное положение правительства США. В случае если политический кризис вокруг вопроса по лимиту госдолга приведет к дефолту, он будет иметь катастрофические последствия не только для финансовых рынков, но и для рынка труда, потребительской активности и темпов роста ВВП США. Учитывая примеры стран мира, которые объявляли дефолт по своим обязательствам, в случае дефолта США экономические последствия в виде высоких процентных ставок, сниженных объемов инвестиций, более высокой стоимости обслуживания кредитов и низкого экономического роста будут ощущаться в течение жизни нескольких поколений американцев”.

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Общая структура внутреннего американского долга на рынке трежерис


иностранные держатели долга

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Группа финансовых консультантов американского правительства и Конгресса состоящая из представителей крупнейших американских банков предоставило экспертное заключение по поводу сценария при котором Казначейство не станет объявлять технический дефолт в случае отказа Конгресса расширить лимит по госдолгу и начнет погашать и выплачивать проценты по трежерис взамен других расходных статей. Финансисты считают, что даже если Казначейство будет полностью обслуживать свои обязательства перед держателями трежерис, но при этом полностью откажется от финансирования других приоритетных расходных статей (таких как Social Security) то этот момент вызовет негативные последствия для финансовых рынков поскольку может спровоцировать рост процентных ставок на кредитных рынках.
СЦЕНАРИЙ ОТКАЗА ОТ ТЕХНИЧЕСКОГО ДЕФОЛТА
Top Wall Street executives are warning that any effort to pay interest on U.S. debt before other obligations such as Social Security, a strategy some lawmakers think would placate bond investors if the government breaches its borrowing limit, would pose severe risks to financial markets and the economy. In recent meetings with Republican lawmakers and Obama administration officials, chief executives of the nation's largest financial institutions said putting some payments ahead of others would create insurmountable uncertainty for investors, drive up borrowing costs and cause market disruptions, according to people familiar with the meetings. The Wall Street pushback against an idea backed by the House GOP is part of an effort to force a resolution on raising the nation's borrowing limit, which the Treasury has said it expects to reach by mid-October. If no deal is reached, many outside observers, including debt-ratings firms, assume the government would begin prioritizing payments to bondholders over others, such as Social Security recipients or veterans, rather than risk defaulting on U.S. debt.Market participants say while the U.S. might not technically default on its debt, missing any type of payment would likely harm the economy. «This is going to be permanently damaging for business and consumer confidence if this happens. People will never look at the United States Treasury the same ever again,» said Tom Simons, money-market economist at Jefferies Group LLC, an investment bank.




 
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Сегодня должна состояться встреча Обамы с лидерами партийных фракций Конгресса

President Barack Obamawill huddle with House Democrats on Wednesday evening to discuss the fight over the government shutdown and the U.S. borrowing limit, according to a White House official.
The meeting with House Democrats is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Mr. Obama will also be meeting with Republican and Democratic lawmakers from both chambers of Congress in the coming days, the official said.
 
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Коротко о биографии и карьерном росте Джанет Йеллен (потенциальный новый глава ФРС)

Personal: Born Aug. 13, 1946, in Brooklyn, N.Y.; married to George Akerlof, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics; one son, Robert Akerlof, an economist at the University of Warwick in U.K.
Education: Graduated summa cum laude from Brown University with a degree in economics in 1967; Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1971
 
1971-76 — Served as assistant professor in Harvard University’s economics department
1977-78 — Served as economist for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, division of international finance
1978-80 — Served as lecturer at the London School of Economics and Political Science
1980 — Joined the faculty at UC Berkeley
1994-97 — Served as Fed governor
1997-99 — Served as chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
1997-99 — Served as chairwoman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
2004-10 — Served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Oct 4, 2010–present — Fed vice chairwoman
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Самый крупный в мире фонд инвестирующий в валютные инструменты закрывает свои подразделения по управлению клиентскими активами. Фонды FX Concepts которыми управляет известный инвестор John Taylor  растеряли большую часть своих клиентских потоков из-за плохих результатов за последний год. 
FX Concepts, once the world's largest currency-focused investment fund, will close its asset-management business over the next few weeks and return money to investors, the company said in a statement.
FX Concepts had seen its assets under management dwindle to $660 million in September, from nearly $3 billion last year and $12 billion in 2008.
«Assets at the firm have dropped to levels that can no longer sustain the business, so the board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the investors for an orderly wind down of open positions, close its funds, and hand back any remaining mandates to clients,» the statement said.
The company will remain in the newsletter and advisory businesses.
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Во время вчерашней лекции в Гарвардской Школе глава ЕЦБ Драги сделал ремарку по поводу валютной политики проводимой европейским Центробанком, и отвечая на вопрос по поводу завышенного курса евро и соответствующего негативного влияния на Еврозону отметил, что валютные курсы должны быть свободными и нельзя допускать, чтобы проводились искусственные манипуляции. 
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Wednesday that the use of foreign exchange policy by a country to improve its own competitive position is a temptation under a regime of floating exchange rates. In prepared remarks for an address to the Harvard Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Draghi observed that «in a system of floating exchange rates, individual governments may be tempted to manipulate their currency to pursue 'beggar thy neighbour' policies, which constitutes a distortion of competition.» Draghi said such actions by one competitor country can deprive another economy of the increased market share it should derive from higher productivity and competitiveness.
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опять кто то селит золото на фьючах большими лотами
GOLD: Dealers reporting a huge sell order for the equivalent of 2M ounces just went through the futures market as gold cratered and took silver with it.
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ТОРГОВЫЙ БАЛАНС КИТАЯ ЗА СЕНТЯБРЬ (ЭКСПОРТ И ИМПОРТ)

 
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На данный момент переговоры по бюджету и лимиту госдолга снова зашли в тупик поскольку Обама отказался принимать условия республиканцев. 


ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ ПО БЮДЖЕТУ
WASHINGTON—Talks between President Barack Obama and House Republicans to avert a U.S. debt crisis have hit an impasse, House Speaker John Boehner told GOP lawmakers on Saturday morning. His comments, in a closed-door meeting with House Republicans, put renewed focus on a plan being developed by Senate Republicans to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and fully reopen the government. «The president rejected our deal,'' said Rep. Raul Labrador (R., Idaho), after leaving the meeting in which Mr. Boehner laid out the state of negotiations. House lawmakers portrayed their talks with the White House more negatively than the picture that had emerged on Friday, after Mr. Obama phoned Mr. Boehner to discuss a proposal that House Republicans presented late Thursday. The White House said Mr. Obama had „concerns'' about the plan but that the two sides had agreed to keep talking. On Saturday, a House GOP aide said Mr. Obama had essentially rejected everything offered by House Republican leaders in their proposal. Mr. Boehner told GOP lawmakers he was now waiting for Mr. Obama to re-engage with the House leadership, said Rep. Richard Hudson (R., N.C.). “The president will have to come to the table with something,'' said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R., Ill.). „All eyes are now on the Senate. The question is what will Senate Republicans do.''
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 Reid said he is more concerned than ever that the nation can avert a default. «Every hour that goes by is closed to cataclysm for our country,» Reid said.
ОБАМА ЕЩЕ РАЗ ОТКАЗАЛСЯ ОТ ВРЕМЕННОГО РАСШИРЕНИЯ ЛИМИТА
 лидер демократического большинства в Сенате  Конгресса официально подтвердил отказ Обамы от предложения бюджетного комитета Палаты Представителей (план республиканцев) о временном расширении лимита. Теперь решение этой проблемы переносится в Сенат который должен принять свой вариант решения и вынести на голосование.




Referring to Obama's talks with House Republican leaders, Reid said «that's over with. That's done. They are not talking.» Reid said he is more concerned than ever that the nation can avert a default. «Every hour that goes by is closed to cataclysm for our country,» Reid said.


The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote at noon on a Democratic plan to extend the debt ceiling until January, 2015. It will require 60 votes to clear this first procedural hurdle and Reid said that he now expects all Republicans to vote against it, thus blocking it.


After that vote occurs, Reid may speak on the Senate floor with other senators about what steps are ahead. The mood in Congress has shifted abruptly in the last 24 hours from cautious optimism to pessimism about a way to end the fiscal standoff.


Senate Republicans met Obama Friday morning and aid the session was «useful» and «constructive» and provided a basis for continuing discussions to end the fiscal stalemate. Obama's and Congress' focus is expected to shift to a new plan being drafted by Republican senator Susan Collins and Democratic senator Joe Manchin.


It would increase the nation's borrowing limit through January and reopen government until March. The bill would also delay Obamacare's tax on medical devices for two years, while replacing the lost revenue by altering the way pensions are calculated.


It would give increased autonomy to the heads of federal agencies to operate under the constraints of sequester spending levels. It's unclear if a deal brokered by the Senate could come together before Thursday, when the $16.7 trillion debt limit must be increased according to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. The House will leave Washington Saturday and and not return until Monday evening.
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Если я правильно понял, уже после этого Сенат не добрал 7 голосов до 60-ти, чтобы принять вариант демократов: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-12/congress-struggles-to-deal-as-senate-stops-debt-cap-raise.html
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ну у них процедура предварительного голосования была и там выяснилось что нет смысла выносить на официальное голосование так как не наберут 60 голосов. в воскресенье и понедельник будут еще эту тему тереть. подозреваю, что в итоге все кончится созданием нового суперкомитета который будет думу думать до следующего года. судя по давлению на республиканцев и демократов со стороны всего мира какой то компромисс найдут но до 17 вряд ли успеют. хотя как раз 17 выяснится что у казначейства деньга есть еще на месяц во всяком случае на этой неделе свободный кеш казначейства составил уже почти 50 мллрд. но видимо раскачку для рынков могут вполне устроить, чтобы веселей думалось всем, процента на 3 падение сипи за день и политики сразу в капкане «страстей»)
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КАЛЕНДАРЬ ВЫПЛАТ ПО ДОЛГАМ КАЗНАЧЕЙСТВА США В ТЕЧЕНИИ ОКТЯБРЯ-НОЯБРЯ
The Treasury Department says it could start defaulting on U.S. obligations after Oct. 17. Other estimates suggest it could be weeks until the U.S. reaches that point.



Key dates that investors and policy makers are watching: Oct. 17 What happens: The U.S. will exhaust emergency measures it has used since reaching the $16.7 trillion debt limit in May. By this date, it expects to have only $30 billion of cash and any incoming tax revenue to pay obligations. Early that afternoon, the government rolls over, or replaces, $120 billion in maturing debt.


Why it matters: Missing the publicly established deadline could rattle investors and diminish the appetite for some debt, as the potential for a default draws nearer.


Oct. 22 What happens: The first day the government could start missing payments, according to analysts at the Congressional Budget Office and Bipartisan Policy Center.


Why it matters: Passing this date might be seen in markets as the start of a more serious crisis.


Oct. 23 What happens: $12 billion in Social Security payments due


Why it matters: It is the first of several large upcoming payments. The Obama administration hasn’t said publicly whether it is feasible to pay Social Security recipients while skipping other payments.



Oct. 24
What happens: A rollover of at least $93 billion in maturing debt, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.


Why it matters: Investors could expect higher interest rates on some debt, raising the cost to the U.S.



Oct. 28 What happens: Payment due on $3 billion in federal employees’ salaries



Why it matters: The partial government shutdown has created doubts about which employees will be paid and when. A monthlong shutdown is unlikely to delay the date of a U.S. default by more than a couple of days.



Oct. 30
What happens: $2 billion in payments due to Medicaid providers



Why it matters: Missing the payment would cast doubt about the ability to maintain support for the health-care program in the near term.




Oct. 31
What happens: $6 billion interest payment due; rollover of at least $89 billion in maturing debt.



Why it matters: It will test whether the government would prioritize payments to debtholders over other obligations.



Oct. 31
is also the last date of CBO’s range for when the government would still have cash available to keep paying bills. Nov. 1 What happens: $55 billion in Medicare, Social Security and military payments due



Why it matters: By this date, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates the government would have exhausted any remaining reserves and would have to default on other payments.

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После переговоров между лидерами демократов и республиканцев в течении сегодняшнего дня представители демократической партии выразили «сдержанный оптимизм» по поводу возможности достичь компромиссного решения бюджетных проблем

ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ МЕЖДУ ДЕМОКРАТАМИ И РЕСПУБЛИКАНЦАМИ В ВОСКРЕСЕНЬЕ
WASHINGTON—A top Democrat on Sunday said Senate leaders negotiating to avoid a U.S. debt crisis and reopen the federal government had major differences to overcome but that he was «cautiously hopeful» that a compromise could still be reached. Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.), speaking on CBS, said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who met on Saturday and discussed frameworks for ending the spending impasse, were «a lot closer, let's say, than House Republicans and the president.» Mr. Schumer said his party's top priority was to find a way to ease the next round of across-the-board spending cuts. The first round of those automatic spending cuts, known as the sequester, went into effect in March. A second round will kick in early next year. He suggested the government be reopened and funding be extended for long enough to allow the parties to agree on a broader budget plan to replace the next round of cuts. Mr. Schumer said he believed both Democrats and Republicans wanted to revise the sequester cuts, but disagreed over how to do so. He called for Congress to find a way to replace the spending cuts—with cuts in entitlement programs or tax increases—before they take effect in early January. As the Senate opened its unusual Sunday session, Mr. Reid also struck an optimistic note, but gave no indication that either side had budged. «I met yesterday with Sen. McConnell. We're in conversation today,'' Mr. Reid said. „I'm confident Republicans will allow the government to open and extend the ability of this country to pay its bills.“ Republicans and Democrats also maneuvered Sunday to protect differing priorities as the Senate talks continue. Sen. Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, said he believes breaching the U.S. borrowing limit „is not a good idea,“ but he accused Senate Democrats of „getting greedy“ in the latest stages of negotiations. He pointed to the demand that Republicans agree to allowing spending to exceed levels set under the sequester. „The sequester is the law of the land and if we exceed that, it's a real big step in the wrong direction,“ Mr. Paul said on CNN. „I can't imagine you are going to get Senate Republicans to vote for something that exceeds the sequester cap.“ Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate Maine Republican at the center of a bipartisan Senate effort to break the budget impasse, said she would continue to try to forge elements of a compromise despite having her initiative sidelined in favor of negotiations between the two top Senate leaders. Ms. Collins hosted bipartisan talks with a dozen senators in recent days, only to see Senate Democrats reject the initiative on Saturday. Conservative House Republicans had also reacted negatively to emerging details of her plan. „I think that's very positive. We're going to keep working, offering our suggestions to the leadership on both sides of the aisle,“ Ms. Collins said on CNN. The Collins plan called for extending the nation's borrowing authority through January and opening the government through March. But the measure would have done nothing to undo the sequester. It also would have repealed a tax on medical devices imposed under the 2010 federal health law, a proposition Republicans favor but many Democrats don't. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D., Minn.), who was part of the Collins group, said on CNN she has spoken with Senate Democratic leaders and expects pieces of the proposal to be part of an eventual compromise. „You'll see today as negotiations continue, elements of this proposal, which I think is really important,“ Ms. Klobuchar said.

 
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европейская история — сегодня комментарии делает представитель Италии в ЕЦБ господин Bonnici. по поводу курса евро он полагает, что пока нет повода для волнений из-за влияния стоимости евровалюты на экономику. по поводу сокращения избыточной ликвидности в евросистеме и потенциального роста коротких ставок он полагает, что есть повод для волнений. ЕЦБ может рассмотреть вопрос о модификации программ LTRO в том случае если будет принято решения о запуске новой кредитной программы. также ЕЦБ в случае острой необходимости может принять решение о введении отрицательной процентной ставки по депозитам. Однако в данный момент ЕЦБ не видит причин для агрессивного смягчения своей политики поскольку обстановка на внутреннем финрынке улучшается и вряд ли можно принять решение о новом LTRO до момента проведения стресс-тестов для банков (в начале 2014 года) 


КОММЕНТАРИИ ПО ЕВРО И ПОЛИТИКЕ ЕЦБ ОТ ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЯ ИТАЛИИ В СОВЕТЕ УПРАВЛЯЮЩИХ ЕЦБ
WASHINGTON (MNI) — The euro's strength should not prove sustainable and currently does not threaten the economic recovery of the Eurozone, European Central Bank Governing Council member Josef Bonnici told MNI late Friday. Bonnici, who heads the Maltese Central Bank, echoed colleagues in saying that a renewed rate cut and another very long liquidity operation remain options for the ECB, depending on developments. «At some point the euro should ease up a bit, but this is one of the factors that it's difficult to put a definite deadline on,» he said. While «the exchange rate is never quite as simple as one factor,» he said, once the U.S. overcomes its present fiscal impasse and the Federal Reserve starts tapering, the euro should depreciate. In the meantime, the currency's present level does not pose a downside risk to growth in the Eurozone, he said. «I think the system has more resilience. Because the euro, if you look at it for the past year or so, has been moving up and down. Obviously, volatility doesn't help. But my feeling is that there are other factors which are contributing to an improvement on the export side.» Bonnici confirmed the ongoing pick-up of Eurozone activity and noted that «even some of the more stressed economies' exports like Portugal, Spain and Italy have been improving. So fiscal consolidation in a number of countries has had an impact on public finances, and from what we can see, things should slowly, slowly improve.» Bonnici argued that currently low Eurozone HICP was skewed downward by «a correction taking place of past problems in some countries,» but that «there's no risk of deflation.» «I'm not sure whether the current low rate is such a big concern,» he added. «At this stage, our expectation is that inflation will probably remain in a reasonable area between 1% and 2%.» Even the accelerating recovery would not spark higher inflation rates, he said, pointing to the «very modest» pace of expansion expected for some time yet. The ECB stands ready to lower borrowing costs further if it deems such a move necessary, he confirmed, but suggested that the already low level of interest rates made another cut less attractive. «I always say that rates are already so low that in some ways perhaps at this level the impact is not as big as at a different level,» he said. While taking rates into negative territory might have a bigger impact, it could also have some adverse side effects, he warned. «Going negative is something that needs a bit of careful assessment,» he said. The ECB had not yet addressed all the concerns about a negative deposit rate, he said. «We always said that there are some factors, some complications which one needs to keep track of. It may have some consequences which may have to be taken into account, but it is possible to go negative and we are prepared to go negative. There are pluses and minuses to this negative rate.» If ECB President Mario Draghi has not spoken as much lately of negative interest rates as he did not long ago, Bonnici explained, this is merely because «a couple of months ago we had negative growth. Today we have a slightly different situation. It is not excluded. It is one option that is there, but the situation changes, too.» Bonnici observed that short-term liquidity remains plentiful thanks to the ECB's fixed-rate, full-allotment auction mode, but that nonetheless, «in terms of LTROs, it's something the Governing Council is keeping a watch on, and we'll act if it's necessary.» The expiry of the existing LTROs «eventually has to be given attention,» he said, though the Governing Council has not yet addressed what precise conditions any new operation might have. «There could be a modification» of conditions applied in the past, he said, adding that all options including capping interest rates at 0.5% remain possible. In comments on the discussion of how the ECB might best report more details of Governing Council meetings, Bonnici said he thought it «important to have more information coming out about the discussion, the thinking process, the raison d'etre of the various considerations.» However, he added, «the problem with naming names is that the Eurozone is currently made up of 17 member states and I think that trying to put names and therefore countries to views may have some undesirable consequences.» He disputed the view of some outsiders that the Council is often divided: «I think from the outside there is the appearance of a bigger mystery than there actually is, to tell you the truth. There is a lot of speculation, but in fact there is a lot of unanimity, there is a lot of agreement. Obviously there are sometimes views that are different, just like you find in the minutes of other central banks.»
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Сегодня в 23 часа по МСК (3 pm ET по американскому времени) должна состояться самая представительная встреча между Обамой и топовыми политиками из партийных фракций в Конгрессе. В предверии нового раунда переговоров которые призваны разрешить бюджетный кризис Обама сделал заявление через свою пресс-службу в которой намекается, что Администрация готова искать выход из тупика и идти на определенные компромиссы, но Администрация не готова «платить выкуп» Конгрессу за то, чтобы восстановить работу правительства и расширить лимит госдолга. 


ВСТРЕЧА ОБАМЫ И ПОЛИТИКОВ В РАМКАХ НОВОГО РАУНДА ПЕРЕГОВОРОВ ПО БЮДЖЕТУ
WASHINGTON–President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders from both parties will meet at the White House Monday at 3 p.m. ET, according to a White House official, as the White House and lawmakers continue attempts to break an impasse over funding the government and raising the U.S. borrowing limit.


Mr. Obama will use the meeting to “make clear the need for Congress to act to pay our bills, and reopen the government,” according to the official.



“The president will also reiterate our principles to the leaders: we will not pay a ransom for Congress reopening the government and raising the debt limit,” the official said.



The meeting will include Mr. Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.).


Mr. Reid and Mr. McConnell met Saturday for the first face-to-face negotiations since the government shutdown in an attempt to find a way out of the logjam. They also talked on the phone Sunday, people familiar with the talks said, but still there were no clear signs of a deal emerging.


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Встреча Обамы и лидеров партийных фракций в Конгрессе отложена из-за необходимости новых согласований по условиям открытия работы правительства и расширения лимита по госдолгу. Одновременно появилось сообщение о возможном достижении компромисса между лидерами фракций в Сенате о возобновлении финансирования работы правительства до 15 января и расширения лимита по госдолгу до 15 февраля. Эта договоренность вроде бы достигнута во время встречи сенатора Рейда (лидер демократического большинства в Сенате) и сенатора Макконелла (лидер республиканского меньшинства в Сенате) 


ДОВОРЕННОСТИ МЕЖДУ ЛИДЕРАМИ ПАРТИЙНЫХ ФРАКЦИЙ В СЕНАТЕ
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are working Monday to nail down a fiscal agreement that would reopen the federal government until Jan. 15 and increase the statutory debt ceiling until Feb. 15, congressional staffers said. The package would require broader House and Senate budget negotiations to conclude by Dec. 15, sources said. Under the emerging accord, Senate Democrats would accept the requirement that those receiving subsidies under the Affordable Care Act would be subject to income verification. Apparently, the dispute over delaying a new medical device tax is still unresolved, with Democrats objecting to its inclusion in the package. If sequestration were to continue in 2014, the proposal would give federal agencies more discretion to implement the across-the-board cuts. Under the emerging Reid-McConnell package, the government would be funded at $986 billion until Jan. 15, the same day that a $21 billion across-the-board sequestration cut is scheduled to take place. Bipartisan budget talks would focus on replacing the sequester with a broader deficit reduction plan. Reid and McConnell continue to work on their plan which is the reason a scheduled meeting at 3 p.m. ET between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders at the White House has been delayed. Both Reid and McConnell came to the Senate floor Monday afternoon to offer words of optimism. «I'm very optimistic that we will reach an agreement that's reasonable in nature this week to reopen the government, pay the nation's bills and begin long-term negotiations to put our country on sound fiscal footing,» Reid said. He thanked McConnell for his «diligent efforts to come to an agreement.» Speaking next, McConnell said that he and Reid have had some «very constructive exchanges» over the past several days about fiscal issues. «Those discussions continue and I share his (Reid's) optimism that we're going to get a result that will be acceptable to both sides,» McConnell said. The focus of fiscal talks shifted to the Senate after Obama Friday rejected a House Republican plan that would have increased the debt ceiling for only six weeks and would not have immediately opened the federal government. It's unclear how the House Republican majority will react to the Reid-McConnell package. Reid said last week that he assumed that McConnell would be checking with House Speaker John Boehner before agreeing to any plan. Senate leaders hope to pass their package by a strong bipartisan vote in the coming days, giving their bill a strong boost into the House.



 
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любопытная информация, оказывается Народный Фронт во Франции (националисты) впервые в истории обогнали по популярности социалистов и правых.

The Front National is now the most popular party in France with 24pc according to a new Ifop poll. Both the two great governing parties of the post-War era have fallen behind for the first time ever. The Gaullistes (UMP) are at 22pc, and the Socialists at 21pc. 
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Состоялся брифинг лидеров партийных фракций в Сенате по поводу итогов переговоров по бюджетую. Сенаторы Рейд и Макконел отказались от комментариев в отношении сроков принятия копромиссного решения поскольку принято решение дождаться результатов голосования в Палате Представителей где республиканцы готовятся предоставить еще один вариант законопроекта предусматривающего расширение лимита по госдолгу и восстановления работы правительства. Как ожидается голосование по новым предложениям должно состояться либо сегодня ночью (по Вашингтону) либо в среду. В данный момент никаких решений еще не принято. 
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ЕЩЕ ПО ПОВОДУ БЮДЖЕТНЫХ РАЗБОРОК В КОНГРЕССЕ
WASHINGTON—The way out of a two-week budget standoff was clouded Tuesday as the House and Senate worked on competing plans to raise the nation's borrowing limit and fully reopen the federal government. House Republicans tried to cobble together a new initiative before Thursday, when the U.S. Treasury says it will run out of the ability to borrow and face a cash crunch, but instead found themselves reworking the details out of fear it might not have the support to pass. «We have several ideas that are being discussed and we're trying to resolve any differences that might exist so we can move forward successfully,» House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.) said, declining to pinpoint when an altered GOP plan might emerge. «We're looking to resolve things as quickly as possible. I hope that will happen very soon.» Senate leaders trying to craft a bipartisan agreement took a pause in their talks, waiting to see how the latest House efforts pan out. Leaders in both chambers are pursuing plans that would raise the debt limit and reopen the government through early 2014. The House GOP tested provisions designed to win conservative support, drawing opposition from Democrats and the White House.


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Самые последние новости из Палаты Представителей. Республиканцы вроде бы отказались от требований свернуть расходы на Obamacare но в рамках будущих переговоров будут настаивать на сокращении бюджетных расходов в качестве условия для долгосрочного повышения потолка госдолга и полномасштабного финансирования правительства. На данный момент предлагается временно увеличить лимит по госдолгу до  февраля и разморозить финансирование правительства до 15 декабря

  • House Republicans Preparing New Bill on Debt Limit, Reopening Government – GOP Aides
  • House GOP Plan Would Extend Debt Ceiling Until Feb 7
  • House GOP Plan Reopens Government Through Dec. 15
  • House GOP Bill To Temporarily Suspend Treasury Flexibility on Debt Ceiling
  • House GOP Bill Does Not Include Medical-Device Tax Delay, Income Verification
  • House Republicans To Limit Gov’t Health-care Contributions for Lawmakers and Aides
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Итоговые опросы среди инвесфондов за сентябрь по аллокации денежных потоков. 

The following table reflects the findings of Reuters September asset allocation polls of 54 leading investment houses from the United States, Japan, continental Europe and Britain. The figures are a straight average from the polls and are not weighted.



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US: National Review reporting that House will take up the Senate proposal on debt ceiling-budget — on Twitter.
 
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House leadership is undecided on how to respond to the Senate bill on budget/debt.
 
 
 
 
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Speaker Boehner has indicated he will bring to the floor whatever plan the Senate passes, even though it will have almost none of the policy goals conservatives have been demanding. Mr. Boehner is sure to need Democratic votes to approve the Senate measure, an awkward position for the chamber's Republican leader. 

вообщем этот спикер Б. готов сам поставить проект сената на голосование (без процедурного голосования) но не уверен, что его кореша по партии поддержат. 
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Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Texas) tells Bloomberg TV that he believes the Senate agreement will pass the House, according to a writeup of the interview released by Bloomberg.  He added: “I have not talked to the speaker. He has made it clear that if an agreement is made in the Senate, it will come to vote in a very timely way. I don’t know that the decision would be made that the House would lead on a Senate Republican and Democrat agreement.” On the tea party wing’s reaction to the bill, he said: “I would imagine that they don’t like it or support it. Clearly, Affordable Care Act was a high priority going into this.”

по сути раскол в республиканской партии, часть конгрессменов от них готовы голосовать за проект сената, а другая часть (чайная партия так называемая) будет стоять до конца если Обама не отменит свой Obamacare. пока непонятно хватит ли общих голосов в Палате.  
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есть некоторые ньюансы связанные с принятием проекта бюджетного соглашения в Сенате. даже если будет достигнутно соглашение и оно всех устроит, то еще нет гарантии, что голосование пройдет гладко поскольку существует правило (single senator) согласно которому даже подавляющее меньшинство (даже один человек) может торпедировать принятие того или иного решения на процедурном голосовании и тогда нельзя будет делать открытое голосование. в данном случае категорически против соглашения с Обамой пока выступают два сенатора от «чайной партии» некие Круз и Лии. Поэтому остаются риски, что голосование в Сенате не получится. На этот случай есть варианты не голосовать в Сенате (процедурное голосование) а сразу дать проект в Палату чтобы голосовали тамошние республиканцы и если они будут «За» тогда голосование в Сенате станет техническим и правило single senator не будет работать. 
A big question is whether Ted Cruz (at right)  and Mike Lee, two tea party aligned senators, will allow the bill to move quickly through the body. 

How fast could Congress pass a deal to avoid a U.S. debt default? With Senate leaders close to settling on a deal this morning, attention turns to whether any lawmaker (paging Ted Cruz!) will make use of Senate rules that allow a single senator to slow down legislation. Here’s one thing that could speed up the process: The House could vote on the Senate’s own plan first, even before the Senate does. House leaders were contemplating such a move on Wednesday morning. 
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не стали блокировать эти Круз и Ли в итоге Сенат принял договоренность. 

*Senate Leaders Reach Bipartisan Deal to Avoid Debt Crisis, Reopen Government – Sen. Reid
*Senate Deal Would Lift Debt Ceiling Until Feb. 7, Reopen Government Through Jan. 15
*Sen. Ted Cruz Won't Delay Senate Vote on Debt Plan
*Cruz Will Oppose the Bill but Won't Block It
 
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теперь дело за Палатой
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Спасибо Григорий, прям триллер )
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мне то за что? ИМ спасибо)) я на WSJ в онлайне смотрю из «потуги» что то подсказывает, что следующее шоу точно станет «триллером») в феврале между прочим у Минфина баблосов не будет ни копейки так как первый квартал в Америке всегда самый слабый по поступлениям в казну, к примеру в марте прошлого года (в самом начале) у Минфина кешбаланс был дефицитным и если бы сейчас был бы не октябрь а март то была бы амба))
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там эти парни из «чайно партии» выступают с такой ненавистью к Обамычу, что создается впечатление о готовности таких парней отправить весь мир в Ад только бы Обаме свернуть шею) Как говорится «видели бы вы эти глаза»)) (про чайную партию)
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А когда, кстати, следующее шоу? Они там собирались бюджет на январь, потолок на февраль, потом что-то менялось…
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ну выше написано вроде что приняли Senate Deal Would Lift Debt Ceiling Until Feb. 7, Reopen Government Through Jan. 15
до 15 января как раз должны что то решить по бюджету иначе правительство опять прикроют)  
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А точно, правда написано. Я просто буквы латинские в слова не с первого раза складываю.
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 сними сериал про Конгресс)))
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Да комедия, кстати, может хорошая получится. Вот на ум пришло почему-то, Геращенко как-то у нас был, и вспомнил случай, когда он в начале 2000-х прилетел в Америку в составе какой-то делегации, то их спросили с кем бы они хотели в первую очередь встретится? Там умничать начали, Геракл сказал: «Везите меня прямо к Монике Ливински».  
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Истории с потолками госдолга в Америке за предыдущие годы

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По оценке рейтингового агентства SP замораживание работы американского правительства приведет к сокращению годового ВВП до 0.6% от общего уровня. 


ОЦЕНКА SP ПО ВВП США ИЗ-ЗА ОСТАНОВКИ РАБОТЫ ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА
WASHINGTON (MNI) — Standard & Poor's said the U.S. government shutdown trimmed 0.6% off fourth quarter growth, but the impact could be worse as the debt limit approaches.


The text of the statement follows: The U.S. government has been shut down for more than two weeks.


Earlier today, Senate leadership crafted an agreement to end the shutdown and avert a debt default. However, the deal needs to be voted on by both chambers of Congress.


We believe that to date, the shutdown has shaved at least 0.6% off of annualized fourth-quarter 2013 GDP growth, or taken $24 billion out of the economy. However, the closer we get to breaching the debt ceiling, the higher we expect the economic impact to be. In the summer of 2011, as we approached the last debt ceiling standoff, consumer confidence plummeted and hit a 31-year low in August when the debt ceiling issue came to a head.



Given that this round of debt-ceiling negotiations is occurring after two-plus weeks of a government shutdown, the total impact on the economy will likely be even more severe. While we believe the Senate deal will be passed and the debt ceiling will be raised, the impact of a default by the U.S. government on its debts would be devastating for markets and the economy and worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.


Should a default occur, the resulting sudden, unplanned contraction of current spending could see government spending cut by about 4% of annualized GDP. That would put the economy in a recession and wipeout much of the economic progress made by the recovery from the Great Recession.


As we've said, we expect the Senate deal to be approved. However, the current chatter coming out of Washington suggests that any continuing resolution will be a temporary one, with an early 2014 timeframe for the next set of Washington deadlines. The short turnaround for politicians to negotiate some sort of lasting deal will likely weigh on consumer confidence, especially among government workers that were furloughed.


If people are afraid that the government policy brinkmanship will resurface again, and with it the risk of another shutdown or worse, they'll remain afraid to open up their checkbooks. That points to another Humbug holiday season. The bottom line is the government shutdown has hurt the U.S. economy.


In September, we expected 3% annualized growth in the fourth quarter because we thought politicians would have learned from 2011 and taken steps to avoid things like a government shutdown and the possibility of a sovereign default. Since our forecast didn't hold, we now have to lower our fourth-quarter growth estimate to closer to 2%.

 
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*DAGONG DOWNGRADES U.S. SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATING



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а что это за кухня? 
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кЕтайсы...=)))
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Dagong downgrades US to A- from A
SINGAPORE, Oct 17 (IFR) — Chinese rating agency Dagong has downgraded the United States to A- from A and maintained a negative outlook on the sovereign's credit. The agency suggested that, while a default has been averted by a last minute agreement in Congress, the fundamental situation of debt growth outpacing fiscal income and GDP remains unchanged. «Hence the US government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future,» Dagong said in a press release. Dagong's ratings are hardly followed outside of China. The agency also classifies most countries it follows very differently from major agencies such as Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch. For instance, like the major agencies, Dagong rates Norway Triple A. However, the US was rated A and the United Kingdom has an A+ rating with Dagong, while Moody's for one, has the UK at and the US at Aaa, the highest level on the New York-based agency's scale. Yet, the Chinese agency is not alone in pointing out that the creditworthiness of the United States is not as good as it once was. Yesterday, Fitch put the Triple A rating it gives to the US under negative watch. In August 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded the US to AA+ after a protracted debt ceiling debate in Congress brought the government to the verge of a shutdown. Apart from the symbolic meaning of the downgrade, though, Dagong's move is expected to have no effect on markets.

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значит говорите Фед не рискнет немного подсвернуть куе в октябре или декабре? ну ну

 
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Однако цены на недвижимость даже в Германии прут. Бюргеры видимо недовольны)

Germany's Bundesbank said Monday that domestic house prices will likely continue to rise in the short-term as high demand, a shortage in housing stock and low mortgage rates fuel purchases.
 In its regular monthly report, Germany's central bank also said that thecurrent level of house prices is not creating any significant macro economic concerns. House prices in Europe's largest economy have have risen consistently since 2010, the report said, driven by, amongst other factors, low mortgage interest rates and a dearth of new housing supply.
The largest price increases were detected mainly in the country's biggest cities, the report said, owing to various demographic and economic factors. Nationwide, the report estimated that between 5% and 10% of all urban property is overvalued, although it said this is primarily true for flats; houses are closer to the margin of what it considers a justified price.
The Bank also said that there are also indications that price increases are spreading into suburban areas as well.


 
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Рынок труда

 
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ЕЦБ опубликовал основные детали своего Обзора Качества Активов для банковских институтов, а также список банков которые будут участвовать в программе стресс-тестов в рамках надзора ЕЦБ. Вроде бы какой то особой «жестокости» в новой методологии нет, по крайне мере пока о штрафных санкциях за LTRO или переоценки суверенного долгового портфеля речь не идет.


ОБЗОР КАЧЕСТВА АКТИВОВ ОТ ЕЦБ
The European Central Bank's Asset Quality Review will be based on a capital benchmark of 8% Common Equity Tier 1 using effective capital definition effective as of January 2014, the Bank said Wednesday. The threshold is part of the first public release of details the ECB has offered on the planned assessment, which will be followed by a wider bank stressed test carried out by the European Banking Association (EBA) and was a key precondition by the Eurotower to assume supervisory powers over the region's top banks. The new requirements will be applicable to all banks coming under the supervision of the ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism. While the Eurotower Wednesday released preliminary list of banks likely to come under direct ECB supervision, it said «the full and final list of significant banks will only be compiled in 2014 when up-to-date statistics have become available.» «The capital benchmark will be set at 8% Common Equity Tier 1. The capital definition of 1 January 2014 will apply for the asset quality review, whereas the definition that is valid at the end of the horizon will be used for the stress test,» the ECB said. «This total Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 8% will constitute the minimum capital requirement for all of the banks covered by the comprehensive assessment.» «It is calculated as a ratio to risk-weighted assets, derived from the asset quality review, including any necessary adjustment to the risk weights. In this context, the leverage ratio will provide supplementary information for assessing the outcomes.» According to the ECB, the AQR will examine the asset side of bank balance sheets as at 31 December 2013 and will «be broad and inclusive.» The review will be «conducted with reference to harmonised definitions, including those for non-performing exposures and forbearance,» the ECB said pointing to new EBA definition of non-performing exposures. According to EBA's new standard, released Monday, a loan should be classified as non-performing when a repayment is more than 90 days overdue or a when a debtor is assessed as «unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full.» The ECB said the dual results «will conclude with an aggregate disclosure of the outcomes, at country and bank level, together with any recommendations for supervisory measures.» «The timelines for implementing such measures will be part of the outcome of the assessment,» the Bank said. In this context, it stressed once again that «for the success of the exercise, the ex ante availability of backstops is critical.» ECB President Mario Draghi said that «transparency will be its primary objective. We expect that this assessment will strengthen private sector confidence in the soundness of euro area banks and in the quality of their balance sheets.» Director General of the Directorate General Financial Stability, Ignazio Angeloni, is due to speak to the press at 10:00 CET later today.



СПИСОК БАНКОВ


 
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о как однако баблосов много в мире)

JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglu writes in report.
— Global M2 is in record high positive territory, up $3t or 4.6% since since beginning of the year,
 
∙ Of the $3t, $1t is from U.S., euro zone, U.K. and Japan, with remaining from emerging markets countries, driven by strong bank lending
∙ This increase is supportive for risk assets, especially compared to period between end of 2010 and start of 2012 when excess money supply was negative
∙ Observes three major episodes of excess liquidity: 1993-1995, 2001-2006 and Oct 2008-Sep 2010
∙ “These were periods of strong asset price inflation suggesting that excess liquidity could have been a factor supporting markets at the time”
∙ “The current episode of excess liquidity, which began in May 2012, appears to have been the most extreme ever in terms of its magnitude”
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новые страшилки о судьбе Китая в случае нормализации монетаной политики Феда. 

Объем долларовых кредитов привлеченных китайскими банками и компаниями достиг почти 900 мллрд. долларов, что втрое больше чем в 2008 году. В теории если начинается сворачивание QE и последующая нормализация монетарной политики с соотвествующим ростом кредитных ставок может случиться неплохой «ай-ай-ай» для китайцев. (правда надо иметь в виду, что существуют способы избежать дизастера если китай успеет удвоить в течении следующего года объемы валютного свопирования с иностранными ЦБ или ФРС предоставит открытый долларовый своп для Народного Банка Китая чтобы китайцы не стали сбрасывать трежерис для того, чтобы освободить кеш и дать доллары своим банкам и компаниям. )



Рост долларовых кредитов в Китае утроился за 5 последних лет и достиг 900 мллрд. долл.
Foreign loans to companies and banks in China have tripled over the last five years to almost $900bn and may now be large enough to set off financial tremors in the West, and above all Britain, the world’s banking watchdog has warned.




TheBIS said loose money policies by Western central banks since the Lehman crisis had cut the cost of foreign funding in East Asia, tempting firms to borrow heavily in dollars.



The risk is that this process could go into reverse as the US Federal Reserve shuts the spigot, triggering off a dollar liquidity shortage across the region with even bigger knock-on effects than during the East Asian crisis in 1997-1998.



British-based banks hold almost a quarter of all cross-border bank exposure to China, and the figure has risen since 2008.



By contrast, German, Dutch, French and other European banks have slashed their share from 32pc to 14pc, chiefly because they are retrenching to beef up capital ratios at home.



Some of the British banks are likely to be branches of Mideast lenders or agents of foreign wealth funds, recycling money through London.



The BIS said the Asian dollar funding crisis after the Lehman crash should be a warning shot, though the sums in the region are already much larger.



Korea was deeply alarmed by its reliance on European bank debt in 2008-2009 and has capped dependence, but China and Hong Kong have not followed suit. Talk of Fed `tapering’ in May this year offered a foretaste of trouble to come. It caused a ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows and a surge in dollar borrowing costs across much of Asia.



The squall blew over when the Fed began to pull back again, but the BIS said the issue has not gone away. “It is worth recalling that the deflationary shock from the currency depreciations during the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98 interrupted the tightening phase of the Federal Reserve, with implications for asset markets,” said the report, entitled ‘Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia’.



The report said the loan-to-deposit ratio for foreign currencies in China has doubled from a well-behaved level of around 100pc in 2005 to nearer 200pc today.



It is “not clear” where the extra foreign currency has been coming from, but seems to involve foreign exchange swaps and forms of credit off the BIS radar screen. At the same time bond issuance by Chinese firms has increase tenfold to almost $80bn in just eight years.







 


 
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Австрийский представитель в ЕЦБ Новотны не видит сейчас возможности для снижения ставки или введения отрицательной депозитной ставки для ослабления стоимости евро. По его мнению и ЕЦБ и европейским политикам надо пока привыкнуть к сильному поскольку регулятор пока не может предоставить инструменты которые помогут быстро изменить валютный курс. Единственный быстрый вариант для ослабления евро это новая программа LTRO, но этот вариант необходимо будет тщательно взвестить из-за больших рисков для стабильности нежели рисков от сильного евро


Новотны из ЕЦБ о евро и возможностях ЕЦБ
Nowotny, who heads the Austrian National Bank, stressed the need for monetary policy in the euro area to remain accommodative. There is a large consensus on the Council with respect to the need to avoid a liquidity cliff, he said, urging the use of medium-term instruments for the purpose and saying it would make sense for the ECB already to provide markets with a corresponding expectation. Policymakers and other «have to live with» the strong euro, given the lack of realistic options at the ECB's disposal to do anything about it, he said. He continued: «Of course we do not welcome the appreciation, and I'm also aware that the strengthening of the euro has an especially negative impact on the weaker economies and might therefore increase the economic divergence. But I do not see any instruments we could use against it, and I also don't see that the problem has reached a dimension requiring a response. So we have to live with it.» «I do not think that having a negative deposit rate is a realistic perspective, but I also do not see a realistic perspective of lowering the main policy rate,» he said. «For one thing, we have clear signs that the recovery is getting stronger. For another, the economic prospects in Europe of the strong countries and the weak countries are still very divergent, which would mean that the optimal interest rate also would differ, but what we have now is a state of affairs with respect to the policy rate that is acceptable for all European countries.» Moreover, he argued, «a reduction of the interest rate would not help too much» peripheral Eurozone countries make necessary adjustments. «The possibilities for monetary policy are very limited, especially with regard to interest rates. Where there is room for discussion is with regard to liquidity provision. There I see room for maneuver. But not with interest rates.» Whether the ECB would actually implement another three-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) «is something that we still have to discuss,» he said, «but where there is a big consensus is with respect to the need to avoid a liquidity cliff when the LTROs expire.» There are «other instruments available to provide liquidity» and ward off such cliff effects, he noted. In any case, given that volume and maturity both matter, «it makes sense to have some medium-term instruments available. And it would make sense also to give adequate signals to the markets.» Nowotny countered the argument that many banks are actually repaying LTRO money ahead of time by observing that this was not a homogeneous development and that it was «important to have stabilization of the Eurozone as a whole.» Turning to the outlook for price stability, Nowotny categorically excluded any deflationary prospects. Although currently low Eurozone HICP is «a concern,» he allowed, expectations remain solidly anchored in line with the ECB's medium-term objective. Concerning «potentially deflationary effects,» he said, «I have to say that up to now, we are still at levels of the dollar-euro exchange rate we have been at before, so this is not something extraordinary and I would not see a reason for an immediate reaction.»
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ОСНОВНЫЕ ТЕМЫ РЕФОРМ КОТОРЫЕ БУДУТ ОБСУЖДАТЬСЯ НА ПРЕДСТОЯЩЕМ СЪЕЗДЕ КИТАЙСКОЙ КОМПАРТИИ (9-14 НОЯБРЯ)
List of Possible Items on China's Reform Agenda:


Interest rates: The People's Bank of China has removed the floor on lending rates and introduced a prime lending rate so far this year. Certificates of deposit which are tradable in the interbank market could be the next step on the way to full deposit rate liberalization. Before completely freeing up deposit rates, however, the government needs to introduce a deposit insurance scheme, something that's been under discussion for nearly two decades but is still mired in bureaucratic infighting, if local press reports are accurate.



Exchange rate: The PBOC is expected to further widen the yuan daily trading band after last year's move to ±1% around the central parity on the way to a fully floating yuan exchange rate. The government has also indicated that it intends to reform the mechanism by which the central parity rate is set each morning.



Yuan internationalization: The Development Research Center proposed making the yuan an international currency for settlement and investment within ten years and a regional reserve currency. The government will continue to expand pools of yuan offshore and provide investors with greater flexibility in managing those pools by increasing the flow of yuan across China's borders. The PBOC is pushing for the capital account to be opened with only few restrictions by the end of 2020, if not by 2015. Yuan internationalization requires fewer restrictions on investing yuan on and offshore. A Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) scheme allowing offshore yuan onshore is being slowly expanded beyond Hong Kong with the next step likely to be a Renminbi Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor(RQDII) scheme allowing onshore yuan to be invested offshore. A QDII2 scheme would allow households to make direct overseas portfolio investments.




Local government debt: The government is expected to eventually launch a functioning municipal bond market to tackle long standing problems with local government debt. It is also expanding a nascent asset securitization program to solve the existing debt problems and could invite long-term investors, such as insurers and pension funds, to work with local governments in debt restructuring.




Fiscal reform: An expanded value-added tax trial is expected to be announced soon. Resources taxes could also be levied to clean up the environment. The government may expand a property tax which is currently limited to the luxury segments of Shanghai and Chongqing. The dual aims are to increase fiscal flows into local governments and bring order to property markets around the country. Bureaucratic opposition is fierce, however, with some blaming resistance on home ownership levels among officials. Beijing may also address fiscal transfer issues between the center and local governments in a bid to curb the reliance on land sales to plug fiscal holes.




Land reform: Urbanization has pushed cities to the edges of rural areas while forced land seizures by local governments have increased social unrest. Some cities have piloted a more market-based transfer of rural collective land and equal compensation methods. Any breakthrough on this front is unlikely, though some state media reports indicate the government is working on reform.


Real estate policy: the government is overhauling property controls aimed at curbing the reliance on administrative controls, such as house purchase restrictions and price controls. Any new policy framework would include a nationwide home ownership database, a new property tax and land reform (see above).



State-owned enterprise reform: The government has said it will open up some industries that have been long closed off to private or foreign money, such as telecoms services, though a full-frontal assault on the power of state behemoths may be unlikely at this stage.



Resources price reform: the government may gradually scrap its controls over the pricing of fuel and gasoline, promote the growth of futures markets, open up the oil and gas exploration sectors and liberalize power and water price mechanisms.



One child policy: Some cities have already liberalized the controversial one-child policy, allowing both parents who were single children to have a second baby. An aging population requires loosening the policy, demographers and economists argue, though the influence of the National Health and Family Planning Commission in its ability to stall or dilute reform shouldn't be dismissed.



Hukou reform: Beijing said in May it will speed up reform of the internal passport system as part of a broader urbanization push. China is now around 52% urbanized and this is expected to rise towards 70% by the end of the decade and to developed world levels near 80% by 2030. A first step is giving tens of millions of rural migrant workers the right to live in the cities they've moved to in search of work and take advantage of the services those cities provide. Guangzhou and Lanzhou have already scrapped a distinction between rural and urban hukous.






Income distribution reform: The government is considering raising the retirement age from the current 55 for women and 60 for men to ease the strain on the country's pension system.


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Федрезерв объявил параметры будущих стресс-тестов для американских банков. В рамках 6 по счету тестирования банковских институтов будут использоваться более жесткие оценочные модели. В срок до 6 января банки должны предоставить собственные оценки своей устойчивости на базе тестов Феда, а в марте будут объявлены официальные результаты стресс-тестов уже со стороны ФРС.


ПРЕДСТОЯЩИЕ СТРЕСС-ТЕСТЫ ДЛЯ АМЕРИКАНСКИХ БАНКОВ
Large U.S. banks preparing for the sixth round of stress tests are finding no big surprises but some new questions to answer, Federal Reserve officials said Friday.


One question the banks will not have to answer is how prepared they are to adjust to any default on U.S. government securities.


That default possibility is no longer entirely theoretical given the upcoming return of a Treasury debt limit deadline Feb. 7 and the possible end of borrowing authority once extraordinary measures run out.



Fed officials, who could not be quoted, gave no reason for the exclusion nor for the absence of any intraday transaction risk test. Such real-time glitches could paralyze the tri-party repo market Fed officials have frequently cited as among the loose ends in their regulatory reform efforts.



One new question the six largest bank trading operations and two custodian and processing institutions will face is about how well equipped they are to withstand the failure of their largest counterparty, which could be another large bank.


Although counter-party risk in general has been part of earlier tests, the single-counterparty question could illustrate which institutions still pose the biggest risk when being wound down, if necessary, of creating disorderly conditions.



It may be difficult for the largest banks to devise a recovery plan when contemplating the failure of another large bank, perhaps encouraging them to make their counter-party obligations less concentrated.


In fact, the latest round of tests are intended to be more focused on overall resilience, a Fed official said, rather than simply enumerate various risks associated with specific asset classes or varieties of market disruptions.


There will be 28 variables the banks have to consider in answering the Fed's questions and filling out the extensive templates in the months ahead with additional data points along the yield curve among the stress scenarios.


A total of 30 banks are covered by the new tests, 12 more than last time. The Fed will be increasing the amount of information it makes public about test results.



A failing grade for any bank could mean at least temporary deferment of dividend distributions or of stock buybacks, not to mention the embarrassment of public shaming.



The stress tests are double barreled, with a fairly straightforward set of questions required by the Dodd-Frank Act and a much more comprehensive examination of risk control policies and capital planning processes.



Non-bank financial institutions, like giant insurance firms, are still excluded from the stress tests because their minimum capital requirements have not been determined and some regulations have not been made final. In formally kicking off the new stress testing season, Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo said, «The capital planning and stress testing program has been an integral component of the Federal Reserve's broader supervisory and regulatory efforts to make the financial system stronger and safer since the financial crisis.»


The Fed said as in past tests, the six largest bank holding companies with large trading operations have to consider their situation in case of any global market shock, the exact dimensions of which have yet to be announced.


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Фонд облигаций Pimco, управляемый знаменитым инвестором Биллом Гроссом, утратил корону крупнейшего фонда. Его место занял Vanguard, у которого набралось активов под управлением на 250 млрд долл. Vanguard, в отличие от Pimco, — это фонд акций, и тот факт, что он стал крупнейшим, отражает смену тренда в настроении инвесторов — они все больше отдают предпочтение растущим акциям, а традиционные долговые инструменты теряют привлекательность из-за роста ставок.
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вообще то фонды Vanguard имеют все виды фондов для инвестирования и в акции и облигации а самое главное много открытых фондов ЕТF которые как раз только набирают популярность. у пимко пока в этом плане больше консерватизма и они сконцентированы в основном на облигациях. 
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Процент инвесторов, считающих, что акции стоят дорого, достиг максимальной отметки с января 2002 года, согласно данным ноябрьского опроса фондовых управляющих, проведенного Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Однако, несмотря на то, что оценки акций, в особенности в США, воспринимаются как высокие, резкая коррекция в акциях считается маловероятной, учитывая, что уровень наличных средств остается очень высоким, указывает BofA-ML. По данным опроса, средние денежные балансы выросли до 4,6% в ноябре, что, согласно «денежному правилу» BofA-ML поддерживает сигнал к покупке акций. Наиболее предпочтительным регионом 3-й месяц подряд остается Европа, и ожидается, что этот оптимизм сохранится на протяжении значительной части 2014 года, так как рекордные 36% инвесторов планируют сохранять долю европейских акций в портфеле выше средней в течение следующих 12 месяцев. Между тем размещение средств в британские акции достигло самого высокого уровня за 11 лет после небольшого снижения в прошлом месяце. Интересно, что 51% инвесторов говорят, что не приняли никаких мер, чтобы защититься от резкого падения рынков акций в течение следующих 3-х месяцев, что значительно больше, чем 40% в прошлом месяце.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. disclosed it had picked up a $3.45 billion stake in Exxon Mobil Corp.Berkshire’s 40.1 million-share stake represents less than 1% of Exxon Mobil’s 4.4 billion shares outstanding but still makes Berkshire the oil company’s sixth-largest shareholder.

George Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC said it had taken significant new stakes in Microsoft Corp. Mr. Soros owned 12.6 million shares of Microsoft.
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прикольная схема)

Two New York City taxi medallions—permits to operate a yellow cab—attracted a combined bid of more than $2.5 million at auction this week. Finite supply helps. But so do ultralow interest rates.
Passive ownership of a medallion generates annual income of roughly $40,000, according to Andrew Murstein, president of Medallion Financial. Say you buy one for $1 million, putting down $250,000 and borrowing the rest at 3.5%. That would pay a 5.5% annual return, essentially tax-free due to losses arising from depreciation—not bad.
At a 4.5% borrowing cost, though, that annual yield drops to 2.5%. Still, that ignores the propensity for medallion prices to rise: By 11% per year over the past three decades. Factor that in, and, even at a 4.5% interest rate, you’ve got an annual return of 41% if you sell after five years, before tax.
Of course, whether medallion prices would keep rising so fast in a period of rising rates remains to be seen. For now though, if one Ben Bernanke ever takes a cab in the Big Apple, medallion owners might want to pick up the fare.


 
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