Бундесбанк готов поддержать отмену "стерилизации" выкупленных облигаций Еврозоны если ЕЦБ примет такое решение

Немецкий Бундесбанк наконец подтвердил намерение предоставить свое согласие на временную отмену программы так называемой «стерилизации» выкупленных ранее (на пике европейского кризиса) суверенных долговых бумаг Еврозоны. В заявлении Бундесбанка говорится, что в данный момент отмена «стерилизации» пока не выглядит в качестве немедленной меры для пополнения денежной ликвидности в европейской финансовой системы, но учитывая вероятность всплеска волатильность на кредитном рынке Бундесбанк может поддержать возможное решение ЕЦБ об отмене «стерилизации» и увеличении таким образом объема балансового счета ЕЦБ. При условии отмены «стерилизации» объем денежной ликвидности увеличится на 175 мллрд. евро, что подразумевает соответствующий рост балансового счета ЕЦБ. В случае отказа от «стерилизации» исчезает сиюминутная необходимость в понижении учетных ставок ЕЦБ и отрицательной ставки по избыточным банковским депозитам, поскольку будет наблюдаться повышение уровня предложения европейской валюты в рамках финансовой системы и постепенное снижение краткосрочных процентных ставок на внутреннем кредитном рынке Еврозоны. 


БУНДЕСБАНК ГОТОВ ПОДДЕРЖАТЬ РЕШЕНИЕ ОБ ОТКАЗЕ ОТ
The Bundesbank said Monday that its is open to halting the weekly sterilization of bonds bought under the European Central Bank's SMP programme in order to help stabilize money market conditions and underline the ECB's commitment to accommodative monetary policy. The Bundesbank's on-the-record support for pausing SMP sterilization, published in its regular monthly report, will likely stoke speculation the Bank may revert to this tool to boost liquidity levels. A full halt of sterilization could add around E175.5 billion to excess liquidity. While describing the recent reduction in excess liquidity as a positive sign, the Bundesbank said that under current conditions «liquidity absorbing operations of the Eurosystem contribute to money market volatility.» «Overall, the Bundesbank is therefore open to a possible adjustment of current liquidity absorbing operations, should this be suitable to help stabilize money market and liquidity conditions and thereby signal more clearly than now the accommodative monetary policy stance of the Eurosystem,» the report read. The Bundesbank reports essentially confirms previous media speculation that it would support at least a temporary end to sterilization, which may make it easier for the ECB to to announce a change in its policy.

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после такой слабенькой немецкой инфляции за апрель (предварительной правда) завтра и общий индекс инфляции по всей Зоне вполне может быть также слабым. по крайне мере теперь рынок на такой вариант настраивается) 

 
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Экономический Совет при ЕЦБ предлагает начать реализацию вариант количественного смягчения в виде выкупа финансовых активов на балансе европейских структур и коммерческих банков


ВАРИАНТЫ QE ДЛЯ ЕЦБ ОТ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОВЕТА ЕВРОЗОНЫ
The European Central Bank should act «forcefully» to bring medium-term inflation expectations back to the 2% target through the introduction of a multibillion euro monthly asset-purchasing programme, a report released Tuesday by an influential think tank argues.


In the report «Addressing Weak Inflation: The European Central Bank's Shopping List», Bruegel argues that the ECB's pricing target of «below but close to 2% inflation in the medium term» has been undermined and that inflation forecasts about the return to normal inflation rates have proved to be too optimistic.


Presenting views in line with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which Tuesday argued in its Spring Economic Outlook that the ECB should deliver more accommodative monetary policy to support the recovery, Bruegel said that reducing the deposit rate or introducing another long-term refinancing operation would be unlikely to change inflation expectations.


However, an asset-purchasing programme of bonds, corporate bonds and asset-backed securities would have the «greatest potential to sizeably influence inflation expectations,» Bruegel, which is based in Brussels, said. «In our view, it was a major mistake not to ease monetary conditions at the time that the ECB's own forecast signalled that inflation will not return to two percent in the medium turn,» the report said.


«Also, government policies, including on bank restructuring and public investment, should have been implemented some time ago as a safeguard against the disinflationary process.»


With the ECB's governing council arriving in Brussels on Thursday for its monthly policy meeting, the pressure has been mounting on central bankers to implement further measures designed at increasing bank lending and lowering the strength of the euro, which is currently trading at close to E1.4 versus the US dollar.


A quantitative easing programme through the purchasing for asset-backed securities would be one way of lowering the value of the euro. The Bruegel report stated that designing yet another long-term refinancing operation would not be so effective because liquidity conditions have normalized and banks appear to want to repay the money borrowed from the ECB sooner rather than later.


It also said that halting the sterilization of the ECB's government bond holdings from the Securities Markets Programme «would be unwise, because that programme had a specific purpose with the stated feature of sterilisation.


» Instead, the most fitting option, according to Bruegel, would be for a monthly purchase of E35 billion of asset-backed securities. «Using empirical estimates from the literature and our assessment, E35 billion per month of purchases over the course of a year could lift inflation by 0.8-1.0 percentage points,» the report states, adding that the asset-purchasing programme should only be reduced when inflation has increased and medium-term inflation is anchored at 2%. «When inflation has stabilised close to but below two percent, the purchased assets should be sold gradually at a pace that does not undermine inflationary expectations.


However, if inflation expectations rise significantly above two percent, the sale of assets should be accelerated and standard monetary policy tools should also be deployed to fight inflation,» the report said. It also recommended that the ECB should purchase privately-issued debt securities as well as bonds from the European Investment Bank, European Stability Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility.


Government bonds, should not be purchased due to the political controversy around such an act, the report said. «We therefore recommend that before the completion of the comprehensive assessment, the ECB starts monthly purchases of E15 billon of corporate bonds, E8 billon of ABS and E12 billion of EFSF/ESM/EU/EIB bonds,» it said.
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