Fitch снизило долгосрочный рейтинг дефолта эмитента Португалии до ВВ+, прогноз "негативный"

ЛИССАБОН, 24 ноя (Рейтер) — Рейтинговое агентство Fitch понизило рейтинг Португалии до «бросового» уровня в четверг, объяснив решение огромными финансовыми дисбалансами и высокой задолженностью.
    Агентство Fitch сократило рейтинг… Португалии до «BB+» с «BBB-», что по- прежнему на одну ступень выше рейтинга, присвоенного Португалии агентством Moody's ну уровне «Ba2». Агентство S&P пока проводит оценку финансового состояния страны.
    Согласно Fitch, ухудшение рецессии в стране «значительно усложняет» для правительства процесс сокращения бюджетного дефицита, но ожидает, что Португалии удастся выполнить цели по бюджету в этом и следующем году.
    «Однако велик риск невыполнения (целей) либо из-за ухудшающейся макроэкономической ситуации, либо из-за недостаточного контроля за расходами», — сообщило агентство.

Полный текст заявления Fitch:

Nov 24- Fitch Ratings has downgraded Portugal's Long term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and Short-term IDR to 'B' from 'F3'. The Rating Watch Negative (RWN) on the long-and short-term ratings has been removed. The Outlook is Negative. The agency has also affirmed its Country Ceiling at 'AAA'. Fitch has also downgraded Portugal's senior unsecured debt to 'BB+' and commercial paper to 'B', and removed both from RWN.
    Fitch has concluded its fourth-quarter review of Portugal's sovereign rating, resolving the RWN in place since April 2011. The country's large fiscal imbalances, high indebtedness across all sectors, and adverse macroeconomic outlook mean the sovereign's credit profile is no longer consistent with an investment-grade rating.
    Fitch has lowered Portugal's growth forecasts in light of the worsened European outlook. The agency now expects GDP to contract by 3% in 2012. Significant structural reforms expected under the programme should leave Portugal in a more competitive position in the long term.
    Over the next two years, the recession makes the government's deficit-reduction plan much more challenging and will negatively impact bank asset quality. However, Fitch judges the government's commitment to the programme to be strong.
    Fitch expects the official deficit target of 5.9% to be met this year, albeit with significant recourse to one-off measures. The most significant of these will be the transfer of bank pension schemes to the public sector, booking an upfront gain of up to 1.7% of GDP.
    The 2012 budget contains significant expenditure reductions, mainly on pensions and civil service pay. The budget is well-designed and is based on reasonable GDP assumptions. Fitch therefore expects the 4.5% deficit target for 2012 to be met. However, the risk of slippage — either from worse macroeconomic outturns or insufficient expenditure control — is large. Fitch's base case is that general government debt will increase from 93.3% of GDP at end-2010 to around 110% at end-2011 and peak at around 116% at end-2013.
    The state-owned enterprise sector is another key source of fiscal risk and has been responsible for several upward revisions to the general government debt and deficit figures over the past year. Given these downside risks, Fitch sees a significant likelihood that further consolidation measures will be needed through the course of 2012.
    The current account deficit (CAD) was 9.9% of GDP in 2010, near its (exceptionally high) 10-year average, and net external debt was 78% of GDP. The return to recession in 2011 marks the start of a long-delayed external adjustment, with resources shifting away from consumption towards exports. Fitch expects the CAD to narrow to 7.5% in 2011.
    The sovereign crisis poses significant risks to the banking system, which lends to one of the most indebted private sectors in Europe and is highly reliant on wholesale financing (access to which is now closed off). Recapitalisation and increased emergency liquidity provision from the ECB to Portugal's banks will, in Fitch's view, be needed and provided.
    A worse economic and/or fiscal performance than forecast could lead to a further downgrade. Furthermore, although Portugal is funded to end-2013, sovereign liquidity risk may increase materially towards the end of the programme if adverse market conditions persist.
    Successful economic and fiscal rebalancing under the IMF/EU programme would ease downward pressure on the rating. Improvement in Portugal's potential growth rate would improve the sovereign's credit profile over the long-term.
  • 24 ноября 2011, 15:02
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